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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,781
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:14am Aug 20, 2010 2:14am
Quoting realjumper
I agree with you up to a point. The only way this is going to 75 is if Japan is ready to risk everything....which I doubt. If, at mondays BOJ meeting, they choose to take no action as far as the high value of the yen is concerned, and they don't choose their words very carefully, then the market will likely react with a drop....and it could be to 75. I doubt that BOJ is going to risk that happening.....they can't afford to. You'll see mass suicides if that happened!!
...
thats been happening for years......continues to rise yoy

http://www.espacoacademico.com.br/044/44eueno_ing.htm

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-b...0100610a2.html
  • #17,782
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:16am Aug 20, 2010 2:16am
Quoting realjumper
I agree with you up to a point. The only way this is going to 75 is if Japan is ready to risk everything....which I doubt. If, at mondays BOJ meeting, they choose to take no action as far as the high value of the yen is concerned, and they don't choose their words very carefully, then the market will likely react with a drop....and it could be to 75. I doubt that BOJ is going to risk that happening.....they can't afford to. You'll see mass suicides if that happened!!

I don't think they will intervene directly, because, as you say, they won't win......and,...

how is that crazy? the trend is down on just about every single tf.....im not saying there wont be bounces, there will, but the trend will remain in bears game. It has for over 30 years......and japan is in the worst shape in 30 years....
  • #17,783
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:19am Aug 20, 2010 2:19am
mfoste1

i notice on ur charts only 2hr, 4hr and 8 hr charts ... is there anything signifcant that u use them ?

coming to the subject of the chart being the roadmap ... just how should one read them .... or ..how do u read them ?

thanks .
  • #17,784
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:21am Aug 20, 2010 2:21am
Quoting mfoste1
how is that crazy? the trend is down on just about every single tf.....im not saying there wont be bounces, there will, but the trend will remain in bears game.
It's crazy because it's common knowledge that the Yen being this high is hurting Japans export led recovery, and even threatens to derail it completely. Plus, the BOJ meeting on Monday. Also, the Yen is (almost) in uncharted territory....not that that means much on it's own, but with the other factors combined, it doesn't make much sense to short this thing....imo
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,785
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:21am Aug 20, 2010 2:21am
Quoting TheArcher
mfoste1

i notice on ur charts only 2hr, 4hr and 8 hr charts ... is there anything signifcant that u use them ?

coming to the subject of the chart being the roadmap ... just how should one read them .... or ..how do u read them ?

thanks .

anything less than 2h chart is just "noise" and really doesnt show the real trend.....

I said it 3 times, go to www.babypips.com and read the whole site
  • #17,786
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:24am Aug 20, 2010 2:24am
Quoting realjumper
It's crazy because it's common knowledge that the Yen being this high is hurting Japans export led recovery, and even threatens to derail it completely. Plus, the BOJ meeting on Monday. Also, the Yen is (almost) in uncharted territory....not that that means much on it's own, but with the other factors combined, it doesn't make much sense to short this thing....imo

I bet that's what they were saying back in 86'
  • #17,787
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:25am Aug 20, 2010 2:25am
Quoting mfoste1
I bet that's what they were saying back in 86'
It's seen 100.00 since then
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,788
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:28am Aug 20, 2010 2:28am
Quoting realjumper
It's seen 100.00 since then
huh? what do you mean....86 not 96
  • #17,789
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:32am Aug 20, 2010 2:32am
Quoting mfoste1
anything less than 2h chart is just "noise" and really doesnt show the real trend.....

so u are a long term (vs short term ) player .. with a view over a few weeks or a month ?
  • #17,790
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:33am Aug 20, 2010 2:33am
Quoting mfoste1
huh? what do you mean
Here's a chart going to back to 1986.....you tell me, on a balance of probabilities, which is the most likely direction?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: prob.jpg Size: 101 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,791
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:35am Aug 20, 2010 2:35am
Quoting TheArcher
so u are a long term (vs short term ) player .. with a view over a few weeks or a month ?

I dont trade intraday......I swing trade
  • #17,792
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:35am Aug 20, 2010 2:35am
Ok, I am getting seriously bored playing with houses money here...

I don't think BOJ is going to buy unless we see 82-80...

I know Kan are talking about the stimulus package and tax and so on and the PM meeting next friday but seriously, I think a good tactic from BOJ would be to sell it down to 80 before buying back instead of just buying, because then the trend would reverse itself much easier...

I also believe this is a big change in the economics globally also... Better soon than later I reckon...

Crude in JPY, what a weird thing...
  • #17,793
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:37am Aug 20, 2010 2:37am
And with easier I mean cheaper for them...
  • #17,794
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:37am Aug 20, 2010 2:37am
Quoting realjumper
Here's a chart going to back to 1986.....you tell me, on a balance of probabilities, which is the most likely direction?

like I said there will be bounces....trend will remain down, its not gonna turn on a dime.
  • #17,795
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:40am Aug 20, 2010 2:40am
Quoting mfoste1
like I said there will be bounces....trend will remain down, its not gonna turn on a dime.
Well.....we trade different styles....a 'bounce' to 100.00 is significant to me...and BOJ....whether or not it changes a trend that dates back a decade
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,796
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:42am Aug 20, 2010 2:42am
Quoting Larseg
Crude in JPY, what a weird thing...
Crude in Euro is more likely....imo
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,797
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:43am Aug 20, 2010 2:43am
Quoting realjumper
Well.....we trade different styles....a 'bounce' to 100.00 is significant to me...and BOJ....whether or not it changes a trend that dates back a decade

yea theres always a way to make some pips
  • #17,798
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:53am Aug 20, 2010 2:53am
Quoting mfoste1
I dont trade intraday......I swing trade
can u refer me to somewhere to know about swing trade ..?
  • #17,799
  • Aug 20, 2010 3:06am Aug 20, 2010 3:06am
Quoting realjumper
Crude in Euro is more likely....imo

RJ are you Saddam Hussein


Anyway, I would like both options very well.... why? to get the focus away from USD... It seems like since there so much being priced in USD they are being saved over and over...

UJ... plopp
  • #17,800
  • Aug 20, 2010 7:55am Aug 20, 2010 7:55am
Quoting mfoste1
like I said there will be bounces....trend will remain down, its not gonna turn on a dime.
The bounce will happen soon and should be fairly big. Divergence all over the daily trend.

Already started started stepping back into longs.
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