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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #5,061
  • Aug 17, 2010 8:05am Aug 17, 2010 8:05am
Had a couple of fairly good trades this morning and one this afternoon where I escaped with a small loss.

The events leading up to the first trade are worth mentioning:

1) We had a pin-bar candle that told us that it had opened bullish and headed towards the xx75 psych-line, but it failed to reach it because the sellers took over and it closed bearish.
2) The next candle was almost a mirror of the above. After this candle opened, sellers took it to below the 34ema, before some buying activity pushed it back up again, but it still finished bearish.
3) Another tug-of-war between the bears and the bulls leaving a slightly bullish doji.
4) After opening, this candle indicated that there was some initial buying activity, but then the sellers came in and this time, any buying resistance collapsed.

The yellow price boxes indicate the trade I took after the above activity.
The green price boxes indicate my trade after the slight retrace to the xx50 psych-line. The only reason I got out of this one is because of the supposedly strong support supplied by the Pivot Point/xx25 psych-line confluence.
My failed trade on the right was just one of those things. The signs are right, but in the end, the market will do its thing! I would have got in earlier, after the retrace to the 34ema, but that confluence was still bugging me.
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  • #5,062
  • Aug 17, 2010 8:30am Aug 17, 2010 8:30am
Quoting eyevoltage
Had a couple of fairly good trades this morning and one this afternoon where I escaped with a small loss.

The events leading up to the first trade are worth mentioning:

1) We had a pin-bar candle that told us that it had opened bullish and headed towards the xx75 psych-line, but it failed to reach it because the sellers took over and it closed bearish.
2) The next candle was almost a mirror of the above. After this candle opened, sellers took it to below the 34ema, before some buying activity pushed it back up again, but it still finished bearish.
3)...
Hey EV
I had the 2b sell earlier and it never went far out with a small +, then I had lunch and missed the set up you show which was prob the best for the day. Nice one.
  • #5,063
  • Aug 17, 2010 9:20am Aug 17, 2010 9:20am
Quoting Vantage
Hey EV
I had the 2b sell earlier and it never went far out with a small +, then I had lunch and missed the set up you show which was prob the best for the day. Nice one.
Yep, I saw that 2b thingy, but it was in passing, so to speak, as I was occupied by other things. I see there's been an impressive drop from that confluence I mentioned, but again, I was too busy to take advantage.
Hope Mrs.V. is not suffering too much, mate.
Cheers.
  • #5,064
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:04am Aug 18, 2010 5:04am
Hi folks.

5m cable shows the power of psych-lines. Numbers 1 and 2 indicate the two trades I took after the retrace to the psych-lines.
I didn't take the first one as it was too close to the MPC news.
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  • #5,065
  • Aug 18, 2010 8:51am Aug 18, 2010 8:51am
Entry after price had a small retracement to the xx50 psych-line, which formed a confluence with the 34ema. Entry just under the low of the doji, and then price showing some strong momentum, but I was happy to get out around the xx25 psych-line.
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  • #5,066
  • Aug 20, 2010 5:10am Aug 20, 2010 5:10am
My trades for the morning, and now I'm finished for the day.

1st one after a consolidation/pull-back to the xx25 psych-line and exit within the S1/xx00 psych-line confluence.

2nd one a break-out from the symmetrical triangle pattern, and the break out was also right on the S1 line. I let this one run as I suspected there was a good chance price would get within touching distance of the xx50 psych-line due to the strong momentum of the move.
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  • #5,067
  • Aug 20, 2010 5:25am Aug 20, 2010 5:25am
Quoting eyevoltage
My trades for the morning, and now I'm finished for the day.

1st one after a consolidation/pull-back to the xx25 psych-line and exit within the S1/xx00 psych-line confluence.

2nd one a break-out from the symmetrical triangle pattern, and the break out was also right on the S1 line. I let this one run as I suspected there was a good chance price would get within touching distance of the xx50 psych-line due to the strong momentum of the move.
Hey EV
We worked hard to get 20 pips on gu, don't know why we focused on that, perhaps when ej was so quiet earlier. Hey at least we're up.
  • #5,068
  • Aug 20, 2010 6:34am Aug 20, 2010 6:34am
I like EJ, mate. It's probably my favourite pair (apart from Sophia Loren's, which shows my age!). I also keep cable and EU on my screen, because although EJ is a great pair to trade (and respects the various S/R's more than other pairs, IMHO), it does tend to go haywire from time to time and then there's loads and loads of loooooooong shadows, which is my cue to turn elsewhere. You must always keep a weather eye on it though, mate, as it can just as quickly start a new trend and be away before you know it!!
Regards to Mrs V. and I hope she's feeling better.
Cheers
  • #5,069
  • Aug 23, 2010 7:20am Aug 23, 2010 7:20am
Just the one trade today, and I've been waiting ever since to see if this bearish flag pattern would be breached. So far, it hasn't been, and I probably won't see it as I have other things to attend to.

The trade I took is fairly straightforward. The cluster of bearish dojis were a great indication of a probable price drop. After the retrace to the xx75 psych-line/34ema confluence, I just waited to see if price would then breach the TL that stemmed from around midnight. When it did, I was in and rode it down to just above the main Pivot Point.

And now, the bearish flag. Will it be breached or what? Only time will tell.

Edit: Being breached as I posted this a minute or so ago!
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  • #5,070
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:03am Aug 23, 2010 8:03am
Quoting eyevoltage
Just the one trade today, and I've been waiting ever since to see if this bearish flag pattern would be breached. So far, it hasn't been, and I probably won't see it as I have other things to attend to.

The trade I took is fairly straightforward. The cluster of bearish dojis were a great indication of a probable price drop. After the retrace to the xx75 psych-line/34ema confluence, I just waited to see if price would then breach the TL that stemmed from around midnight. When it did, I was in and rode it down to just above the main Pivot Point....

Hi EV
Nice trade, we were watching but decided not to take as the vol's were so poor. Normally be all over that one, perfect lh, entry candle little/no lower weak, if 5565 was an area to be defended the prior bounce was weak. Like I said normally we'd love that set up but vol's were very, very low.
  • #5,071
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:24am Aug 23, 2010 8:24am
Quoting Vantage
Hi EV
Nice trade, we were watching but decided not to take as the vol's were so poor. Normally be all over that one, perfect lh, entry candle little/no lower weak, if 5565 was an area to be defended the prior bounce was weak. Like I said normally we'd love that set up but vol's were very, very low.
As you know, I never bother with volume, mate. When I was investigating it, I found that I was actually finding more reasons NOT to trade than actually going for it. Add to that the fact that I didn't really understand what the hell was going on, and you'll probably see why I finally dropped them altogether.
I think I'll stick with what the pivots, psychs and TL's are telling me, mate. I'd feel much safer that way!
Regards as always to Mrs.V.
  • #5,072
  • Aug 23, 2010 8:30am Aug 23, 2010 8:30am
Quoting eyevoltage
As you know, I never bother with volume, mate. When I was investigating it, I found that I was actually finding more reasons NOT to trade than actually going for it. Add to that the fact that I didn't really understand what the hell was going on, and you'll probably see why I finally dropped them altogether.
I think I'll stick with with what the pivots, psychs and TL's are telling me, mate. I'd feel much safer that way!
Regards as always to Mrs.V.
Good on yer, vol help's us often so the baby stays in the dirty water.

I see fxpro drew with you guys, fergie not happy, is he ever?

Cheers.
  • #5,073
  • Aug 23, 2010 1:37pm Aug 23, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting Vantage
Good on yer, vol help's us often so the baby stays in the dirty water.

I see fxpro drew with you guys, fergie not happy, is he ever?

Cheers.
fxpro? Is that some sort of code for Fulham? As for Fergie, he can be the grumpiest so-and-so of all time for me. As long as he keeps collecting trophies, he's OK by me, mate!!
  • #5,074
  • Aug 23, 2010 1:54pm Aug 23, 2010 1:54pm
EV would you not have taken a short off the R1 and psych number 15600
I don't know the name of the candles, but to me it was a pinbar and double confluence.

I would like your opinion and anyone else, if you don't mind, so that I can learn this method.

Thank you

Lin
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  • #5,075
  • Edited 6:31pm Aug 23, 2010 6:27pm | Edited 6:31pm
Thanks for the chart, mate.

Yes, you seem to have a good grasp on what's going on. The "pin-bar" you mention is actually a candle known as a "Dark Cloud Cover", because the main body of the candle opens higher than the close of the previous candle and pushes down, "piercing" the body of the previous said candle. This particular DCC candle also has a long upper shadow indicating a good amount of selling going on, forcing price down.

Yes, I would have traded this one, purely and simply because the whole thing formed on the confluence you mentioned, and I would have entered under the low of the DCC candle. Exit would have been either on the xx75 psych-line or just above the TL that I've drawn.
Hope this helps.

Edit: Sorry, forgot to mention that on my chart, the "pin-bar" isn't exactly a Dark Cloud Cover, the opening price being the same as the close of the previous candle. Still, very definitely a DCC on YOUR chart, Lin. Hope this is clear.
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  • #5,076
  • Aug 24, 2010 1:45am Aug 24, 2010 1:45am
This is a 7RB chart. Price had pushed up against the trend with a 15 min good vol hammer. A higher close followed with lower vol. Came to FH half hour reversal.

Sold the move below the psych level out for +23 ito of our pre 9am gmt trade rules. Mrs V insisted I wanted to let go a little but she won out. My left arm will stop hurting soon I think.

Price did run through to 85 level for a 15/85 trade.
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  • #5,077
  • Aug 24, 2010 1:54am Aug 24, 2010 1:54am
Your explanations are so in detail and your help amazing
Thanks so much EV.

Lin
  • #5,078
  • Aug 24, 2010 2:12am Aug 24, 2010 2:12am
Short with break of trend line and psych 84900 (demo)

I think my entry should have been earlier with the break of 8500. Would that have been too close to S1??

I am getting confused because FXDD have changed to 5 digits, and 8490 is not a psych no.

How do I set the sweetspot for 5 digits?
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  • #5,079
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:12am Aug 24, 2010 3:12am
Quoting traderlin
Short with break of trend line and psych 84900 (demo)

I think my entry should have been earlier with the break of 8500. Would that have been too close to S1??

I am getting confused because FXDD have changed to 5 digits, and 8490 is not a psych no.

How do I set the sweetspot for 5 digits?
See if this psych indicator will help you. I use it, and it's ok on 5 digit charts.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SDX-SweetSpots_v5.2.ex4   8 KB | 377 downloads
File Type: mq4 SDX-SweetSpots_v5.2.mq4   12 KB | 458 downloads
  • #5,080
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:15am Aug 24, 2010 3:15am
Quoting Vantage
This is a 7RB chart. Price had pushed up against the trend with a 15 min good vol hammer. A higher close followed with lower vol. Came to FH half hour reversal.

Sold the move below the psych level out for +23 ito of our pre 9am gmt trade rules. Mrs V insisted I wanted to let go a little but she won out. My left arm will stop hurting soon I think.

Price did run through to 85 level for a 15/85 trade.

Interesting trading partnership you have with Mrs V, Dave. Do you ever retaliate? Or would that be asking for trouble?

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