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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,761
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:02am Aug 19, 2010 11:02am
Quoting mfoste1

no that doesnt mean when the bar starts going down sell. That means when price spikes up to resistance levels on a 4h chart, 8h chart, daily then you sell.....
can u give me a visual ( chart ) of the above in usdjpy context today ..?

i am confused with this spike up to resistance ... thought today it broke downwards from the support ... ????
  • #17,762
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:05am Aug 19, 2010 11:05am
its retracing the 2nd hour .... will it drop down to 'honour' the 4hr bar the next 2 hrs ..?
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  • #17,763
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:08am Aug 19, 2010 11:08am
Quoting mfoste1
that means when there is a short covering rally, sell....
how would u say that in simple english ... not very strong with professional terms ...
  • #17,764
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:34am Aug 19, 2010 11:34am
staring at 4hr chart .... which of the 4 lines is at play ...?

boy, this is real hard work ... sigh ...
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  • #17,765
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:36am Aug 19, 2010 11:36am
Quoting TheArcher
how would u say that in simple english ... not very strong with professional terms ...
Maybe this could help http://tinyurl.com/2ater3h
  • #17,766
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:47am Aug 19, 2010 11:47am
Quoting TheArcher
staring at 4hr chart .... which of the 4 lines is at play ...?

boy, this is real hard work ... sigh ...

a short covering rally is when buyers come in to "cover" their shorts or buy back what they sold ie. profit taking.......the top line is in play. This is only hard if you make it hard.....common sense is the best tool.
  • #17,767
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:49am Aug 19, 2010 11:49am
Quoting kandarv
Maybe this could help http://tinyurl.com/2ater3h
thanks for the nifty link ...

it is still a mouthful for me .... can't visualize it ... still blurry ..
  • #17,768
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:55am Aug 19, 2010 11:55am
Quoting mfoste1
a short covering rally is when buyers come in to "cover" their shorts or buy back what they sold ie. profit taking.......the top line is in play. This is only hard if you make it hard.....common sense is the best tool.

ok .. that's the definition i got earlier ... but can u show me on the chart how u see this ... ?

when buyers ( u mean the ones who ' sold ' ) come in to "cover" their shorts or buy back what they sold ... ( u mean cut loss ) ... boyoboy too confusing ....
  • #17,769
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:56am Aug 19, 2010 11:56am
Quoting TheArcher
ok .. that's the definition i got earlier ... but can u show me on the chart how u see this ... ?

when buyers ( u mean the ones who ' sold ' ) come in to "cover" their shorts or buy back what they sold ... ( u mean cut loss ) ... boyoboy too confusing ....

a short covering rally is when shorts take profit.......
  • #17,770
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:57am Aug 19, 2010 11:57am
Quoting mfoste1
This is only hard if you make it hard.....common sense is the best tool.
ok , tell me what u see on my 4hr chart .. or what am i to see in the chart ?
  • #17,771
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:58am Aug 19, 2010 11:58am
Quoting mfoste1
a short covering rally is when shorts take profit.......
too confusing !

i give up !

i surrender !
  • #17,772
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:47pm Aug 19, 2010 12:47pm
Quoting TheArcher
too confusing !

i give up !

i surrender !

dude.....its when shorts close their positions and take the profit......i cant put it any simpler than that.

you need to read the whole babypips website.....
  • #17,773
  • Aug 19, 2010 4:38pm Aug 19, 2010 4:38pm
Quoting fxtrends
Hit my entry exactly at the low!! Next hurdle for Yen bears is trendline resistance at 85.79. Above that I will trail my stop to cost and take 1/2 profit at my first target at 87.35.
Well played, I shorted 2 minutes before the news... went to bed and what happen to 84.00?? crap...

where did you get 84.80 from? or did you just look at 84.7 and added?
  • #17,774
  • Aug 19, 2010 4:41pm Aug 19, 2010 4:41pm
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  • #17,775
  • Aug 19, 2010 4:58pm Aug 19, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting fxtrends
Hit my entry exactly at the low!! Next hurdle for Yen bears is trendline resistance at 85.79. Above that I will trail my stop to cost and take 1/2 profit at my first target at 87.35.

you must be looking at a different chart than me........all i see is obvious downtrend continuation.
  • #17,776
  • Aug 19, 2010 6:09pm Aug 19, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting mfoste1
you must be looking at a different chart than me........all i see is obvious downtrend continuation.
I don't think it's that obvious any longer man......for the past 2 weeks the bears have been trying to get this to stick below 85.30 (ish) and they can't do it. Included in that period there has also been 4 failed attempts to get into the 84's, despite continued crap news for the greenback.

No, the downdtrend has not yet been broken, but there are cracks appearing.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,777
  • Aug 19, 2010 6:25pm Aug 19, 2010 6:25pm
With BOJ talking about intervention again I believe no one wants to get caught on the wrong end of it.
  • #17,778
  • Aug 20, 2010 12:26am Aug 20, 2010 12:26am
Quoting realjumper
I don't think it's that obvious any longer man......for the past 2 weeks the bears have been trying to get this to stick below 85.30 (ish) and they can't do it. Included in that period there has also been 4 failed attempts to get into the 84's, despite continued crap news for the greenback.

No, the downdtrend has not yet been broken, but there are cracks appearing.
If you look back on this pairs history, you can easily see that when it hits a true bottom, it comes off of capitulation. Right now all the pair is doing is consolidating right at support. That's usually a signal that it's getting ready to decline. I mean look at the fundamentals coming out of japan. They've completely went into the abyss. They've gone so far that monetary policies they attempt to put into action don't even work anymore. Even if they intervene, it will not work. History has only told us that when CB's try to take on the market, the market wins.......

Watch this....This Bass guy is a very smart dude. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1568296901&play=1


A lot of times, taking a step back and looking at a larger tf over a longer scale gives a great picture of where the pair is really headed........Everyone's out there talking, " Oh I'm gonna buy at 84, 82, max out my leverage at 80....." Hello margin call....No.......I'm looking at 75 in the near term.

SELL RALLIES
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  • #17,779
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:04am Aug 20, 2010 2:04am
Quoting mfoste1


This Bass guy is a very smart dude. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1568296901&play=1

talks very fast to catch anything ... what is he saying in simple english


Quoting mfoste1


Right now all the pair is doing is consolidating right at support. That's usually a signal that it's getting ready to decline.

this part i can understand with TA ...

Quoting mfoste1

it comes off of capitulation.

SELL RALLIES
there's the two words again .... i am getting a bit 'phobic' of these words ... for not getting the real meaning of them ... : (

  • #17,780
  • Aug 20, 2010 2:07am Aug 20, 2010 2:07am
Quoting mfoste1
If you look back on this pairs history, you can easily see that when it hits a true bottom, it comes off of capitulation. Right now all the pair is doing is consolidating right at support. That's usually a signal that it's getting ready to decline. I mean look at the fundamentals coming out of japan. They've completely went into the abyss. They've gone so far that monetary policies they attempt to put into action don't even work anymore. Even if they intervene, it will not work. History has only told us that when CB's try to take on the market,...
I agree with you up to a point. The only way this is going to 75 is if Japan is ready to risk everything....which I doubt. If, at mondays BOJ meeting, they choose to take no action as far as the high value of the yen is concerned, and they don't choose their words very carefully, then the market will likely react with a drop....and it could be to 75. I doubt that BOJ is going to risk that happening.....they can't afford to. You'll see mass suicides if that happened!!

I don't think they will intervene directly, because, as you say, they won't win......and, other central banks won't back then in direct intervention.

What's most likely....imo....is more verbal intervention, that may or may work.

Not selling rallies.....imo that's crazy. It's just as crazy as taking unprotected longs with maxed out margins. I am buying dips (but you knew that!!) with very tight stops, and so far I am in profit with that tactic.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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