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  • #283,841
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:12am Aug 19, 2010 11:12am
Quoting thefed
Good call!!!
Not at all. Fed is the player right now. Buying $3B treasury. This is pushing EU lower
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #283,842
  • Edited 11:23am Aug 19, 2010 11:12am | Edited 11:23am
Quoting gatorinla
until 2936.9 there are no bulls. even if we get there we should retrace below 2936.9. so if your bullish wait for this before entering. for myself ill wait for the movie. all we did since Friday was bear flag building. im not saying we move tonight. it may take days.

.
until we get a new low we are in a range. atm we will possibly break a tl... this alone wont be all needed longer term for shorts. testing the tl as i write this, eventually euro should decouple from commoditeis.. and other currencies.. including chf comparible to usd.(less affect ratio)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #283,843
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:15am Aug 19, 2010 11:15am
SAR on usdchf @ 1.0330 (now short)
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #283,844
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:20am Aug 19, 2010 11:20am
Quoting forexings
Not at all. Fed is the player right now. Buying $3B treasury. This is pushing EU lower
I have support at .2730 do you think we will have a break and I do agree with "gatorinla" that the market is in range
  • #283,845
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:22am Aug 19, 2010 11:22am
Stay out of this market. Its in a range and stop hunting going on due to light volume
  • #283,846
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:24am Aug 19, 2010 11:24am
Quoting sisse
The only thing we agree is on the short term risk move for the rest your comments are rather simplistic and ignore a lot of interrelations.

Just plot a weekly chart side by side Euro / ES for example in the last 3 years and check by yourself if the relations is 1/1 on what you are saying.

In the current circumstance you are also forgetting the strong macroeconomic numbers in Europe... This is not going to be the 1st time since this year started, that the dollar/stocks markets have broke correlation... go back to DEC 09 and we can talk later.......
look at the current prices and we can talk now lol. As I said it is not always the case. But you need to have the mind to interpret news. Which you obviously dont when you were expecting bad unemployment to weaken the USD. During normal market conditions fundamentals are in focus. During adverse market conditions risk aversion is in focus. During December of 09 when the dollar strengthened. Normal market conditions were in effect which we can define for simplicity as a bull market and descending vix. The USD had better fundamentals and strengthened even while the stock market was rising. Right now risk aversion has returned.
  • #283,847
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:27am Aug 19, 2010 11:27am
I'm short EURUSD and am anticipating further sell down through afternoon and Asian session. The Take profit is set for 1.2751. Perhaps It'll get stopped out flat, but I think its more likely to go down further after bad employment and Philadelphia Mfg Survey numbers. Risk aversion is the theme. 10 Year T-Bill's yield have made a new significant low. FED is doing QE and Uncle is spending like a drunken sailor on Liberty.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $eu15m8-19-10.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #283,848
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:30am Aug 19, 2010 11:30am
hi guys just a short hello, as i cannot trade atm...
  • #283,849
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:30am Aug 19, 2010 11:30am
Quoting thefed
I have support at .2730 do you think we will have a break and I do agree with "gatorinla" that the market is in range
2815 will play a great role for market range.
Below 2815 daily close may push EU new weekly low.

This hour bear should hold 2815. otherwise support will be it
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #283,850
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:33am Aug 19, 2010 11:33am
Bear taking a breather (1.2835 max ) for the final push down
We have not seen the Low Of Day yet.
  • #283,851
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:33am Aug 19, 2010 11:33am
Quoting Mr Hatch
hi guys just a short hello, as i cannot trade atm...
hi Mr Hatch
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #283,852
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:36am Aug 19, 2010 11:36am
I wonder why not bottom confirmation, fishy stuff, probably just one player doing own thing.

Looks like Bear is re-positioning itself for final blow.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #283,853
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:45am Aug 19, 2010 11:45am
Quoting vinesh2
Stay out of this market. Its in a range and stop hunting going on due to light volume
Yesterday i take sell 1.2870 target 1.28 but because have no time work-family) closed after 3H yesterday today When i look to my chart ...here we go

I also closed because i believe it's Up normal time to trading
  • #283,854
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:47am Aug 19, 2010 11:47am
Quoting priceaction
The chart below is based on an edge which another FF thread teaches (thread owner Sho) for the 15 min chart.

Sho teaches ..."Momentum Exceeds EVERYTHING".

We can apply the same principles of price action to any time frame.

Essentially with EURUSD we have seen:

 

  1. Momentum
  2. Consolidation
  3. A small 2 day pin
  4. A trend line waiting to reject or break

Whilst no edge...

Look at price action on the lower time frames, in the direction of the downward trend.

Consider the previous demand zone that price has revisited.
Then consider the bigger pictures shown in the daily & weekly charts below (from this morning).

Depending on whether demand in this zone has been exhausted or not, perhaps it's time to tumble, and break out of this week's range ...but only price action will confirm reality

Rob
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Weekly 19 Aug 2010.jpg Size: 211 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Daily 19 August 2010.jpg Size: 222 KB
  • #283,855
  • Aug 19, 2010 11:55am Aug 19, 2010 11:55am
the broad picture is that the story of the us recovery isnt flying and that the lower euro is benefiting the eu... and the eu economy.
Andreyou
  • #283,856
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:03pm Aug 19, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting forexings
Not at all. Fed is the player right now. Buying $3B treasury. This is pushing EU lower
You seem to have posted that at the beginning of the move down.
were did you get that info?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #283,857
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:08pm Aug 19, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting priceaction
Look at price action on the lower time frames, in the direction of the downward trend.

Consider the previous demand zone that price has revisited.
Then consider the bigger pictures shown in the daily & weekly charts below (from this morning).

Depending on whether demand in this zone has been exhausted or not, perhaps it's time to tumble, and break out of this week's range ...but only price action will confirm reality

Rob
Your charts Tell A lot
  • #283,858
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:25pm Aug 19, 2010 12:25pm
Eur Usd seem to be in a big congestion since Monday. Being hitting my stops on my breakout strategy. Looks like its time to take a break for this week
  • #283,859
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:37pm Aug 19, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting FxZenith
Eur Usd seem to be in a big congestion since Monday. Being hitting my stops on my breakout strategy. Looks like its time to take a break for this week
Yes there is congestion.....there is also a big move coming....and although we are forming a bear flag on the daily....I am seeing some divergence with price and stochastics......I think we push up a bit more before there is a possible fall of the cliff....
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #283,860
  • Aug 19, 2010 12:38pm Aug 19, 2010 12:38pm
[BRIEFING.COM] 13:05

Heightened volatility and sharp selling among stocks has sent many into Treasuries. In turn, the yield on the 2-year Note has fallen to almost 0.47%, which puts it at a new record low, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back at 2.57%, near 15-month lows, and the yield on the 30-year Bond is at 3.63%, its lowest level in 14 months.
The dollar has also attracted support. Despite losing ground to the euro as a result of disappointing U.S. data and an increased forecast for German GDP, the greenback has since made its way to a 0.2% gain.

+ + +

And all this against the backdrop of low summer volume - so it doesn't take much news - good or bad - to move things a lot.
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