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  • #283,141
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:24am Aug 18, 2010 6:24am
It's going down on low vol... Longs should not be scary at this stage.
Looks like profit taking from the move up...now it's the time for reloading...unless we break 1,2860-70 support...
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #283,142
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:29am Aug 18, 2010 6:29am
Quoting kuroro001
It's going down on low vol... Longs should not be scary at this stage.
Looks like profit taking from the move up...now it's the time for reloading...unless we break 1,2860-70 support...
Agreed..my focus is on 2862
  • #283,143
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:31am Aug 18, 2010 6:31am
Sounds true from a banker perspective but they forgot the main problem: CAPITAL SIZE.

I don't know what is your size or capital but getting stopped out sometimes to protect capital is a must and is the cost of doing business in order to achieve consistency. The 90 pips this morning "noise" from a banker (...or demo or $1 pip trader) is negligible but for a small traders with +/- my size that noise will be almost $1000.

The banks acting with perfect information in synch to screw small trader is ,most of the time, overrated and is confuse with the "normal" volatility of the instrument. IMO a near 100 pips move doesnt qualify as such.

In any case, as I said before in my charts as long as the weekly broken S level holds the door is wide open for the short side.

Good luck in your shorts.

sisse

Quoting rattyo
Also I was telling a mate (who trades for ABN AMRO) of mine a few months back about my new candle stick knowlegde to my trading armoury, Dojis Dark cloud cover etc.

He told me remember that theres a good few thousand people looking at that same doji, hanging man etc. the banks may want this Euro down but first they will screw as many people out as they can before triggering it off.
Quoting rattyo
This had me fooled this AM. I´m still short and way out of court 50 pips now. Plenty of people got sucked in when it hit 12830ish short and the price has been driven back up to 129 again

Its appears the banks have now had there fun and are dropping this Euro back down to where it was this AM for the US open. Maybe I´m wrong but we will see .
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #283,144
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:39am Aug 18, 2010 6:39am
Euro yet not succeed to reach either 1.2760 or 1.2930.

Therefore, I expect another bullish rally until 1.2930.
In forex, one currency is always up!
  • #283,145
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:44am Aug 18, 2010 6:44am
stop missed by 0,7 pips LOL
Maybe i'll be stopped, but i'm leaving it who knows
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.PNG Size: 32 KB
  • #283,146
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:45am Aug 18, 2010 6:45am
How many times do we have to test the 2900 region before we have a breakout?
  • #283,147
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:46am Aug 18, 2010 6:46am
Quoting rattyo
Also I was telling a mate (who trades for ABN AMRO) of mine a few months back about my new candle stick knowlegde to my trading armoury, Dojis Dark cloud cover etc.

He told me remember that theres a good few thousand people looking at that same doji, hanging man etc. the banks may want this Euro down but first they will screw as many people out as they can before triggering it off.

This had me fooled this AM. I´m still short and way out of court 50 pips now. Plenty of people got sucked in when it hit 12830ish short and the price has been driven...
Dutch bank, LOL

.............BUT, well posted.
Riding it down with you, as long as you apply proper MM you can't go wrong.
  • #283,148
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:54am Aug 18, 2010 6:54am
Don't know where it is headed today, but for now is in a channel on the Daily and has a lot of respect for the Monthly Pivot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_channel Daily_.png Size: 29 KB
  • #283,149
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:07am Aug 18, 2010 7:07am
thanks !


Quoting rattyo
Its full of Hocus Pocus trading, you cant trust anything soley, there is no sure fire method that works 100% of the time.
Fibs Pivots Indicators (CCI,RSI,MAC).

Doing this 7 odd years now and Trendlines work the best for me of a 4hr and D1 chart and dont forget that trendlines are there to be tested and broke too so theres no point putting the farm on anyone trade.

Where those pivot points are normally quite reliable is when you have fast moving price action and you need to know where to get out.


While price is like this doing nothing...
  • #283,150
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:08am Aug 18, 2010 7:08am
it hasent broken the 100ma and still hangs slightly above 50%fib of the rally today so far if 50fib holds we might rally back up but i dont think it will reach a new high for the day
  • #283,151
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:24am Aug 18, 2010 7:24am
during asian session i got stopped out on my how do know how many longs.

to see it at these levels again... that's life.

loosing 200 pips is not so bad. really bad is knowing i saw 500 pips positive and didnt' close it looking for higher levels. it's called greed, don't know if you heard of it LOL

long again 6 position for the 939 still! from 45 and from 80.

let's get those pips back!

hapipipin



Quoting kuroro001
It's going down on low vol... Longs should not be scary at this stage.
Looks like profit taking from the move up...now it's the time for reloading...unless we break 1,2860-70 support...
dreams do come true.
  • #283,152
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:30am Aug 18, 2010 7:30am
I think we'll see some attempt at rally from NYSE today. There's something similar to a cup and handle being formed on H1 on the DJ. Potentially it could help finish the right shoulder on EUR/USD. I'll be looking to short both equities and the EUR if my projected levels are hit - 1.3000 in EUR and 10485/500 in DJ. The DAX still has some 50 points to go up to finish its right shoulder. Ofcourse, this rally attempt may not even happen, but my strategy is to await patiently and not go short yet.
  • #283,153
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:31am Aug 18, 2010 7:31am
Quoting FXTheOne
Just came home from work, and EU rocket to 2900. Very nice.. One buy limit at 2865
Missed my entry for 5pips Move it to 2880
  • #283,154
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:31am Aug 18, 2010 7:31am
its all long today to get to targets 1.2930 first bounce down for wave b then up to 1.3 thats 100% fib that should be it for longs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #283,155
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:36am Aug 18, 2010 7:36am
Quoting wannaberich

loosing 200 pips is not so bad. really bad is knowing i saw 500 pips positive and didnt' close it looking for higher levels. it's called greed, don't know if you heard of it LOL

hapipipin
The Psychology of Trading by Brett Steenbarger

A must read
  • #283,156
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:37am Aug 18, 2010 7:37am
wave c could end at 30-40 area, though...



Quoting nawafasad1
its all long today to get to targets 1.2930 first bounce down for wave b then up to 1.3 thats 100% fib that should be it for longs
dreams do come true.
  • #283,157
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:39am Aug 18, 2010 7:39am
will look at it.

trading in the zone, also good for that matter, but i will look for that one.


Quoting T@rantula
The Psychology of Trading by Brett Steenbarger

A must read
dreams do come true.
  • #283,158
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:40am Aug 18, 2010 7:40am
Quoting rattyo
Also I was telling a mate (who trades for ABN AMRO) of mine a few months back about my new candle stick knowlegde to my trading armoury, Dojis Dark cloud cover etc.

He told me remember that theres a good few thousand people looking at that same doji, hanging man etc. the banks may want this Euro down but first they will screw as many people out as they can before triggering it off.

This had me fooled this AM. I´m still short and way out of court 50 pips now. Plenty of people got sucked in when it hit 12830ish short and the price has been...
Dunno, but I'm hoping you are right, n it does 'seem' to be coming back down as I type. I also got screwed for 55 pips this am tho maybe I should have known better. I started the morning with a nice win of 13 pips way before London open - and prob before I was awake. Mistake was setting up another trade putting SL at 12880 (the morning's open) then going off to rest my eyes, which tend to hurt like hell with too much computer staring. Listening to Bloomberg didn't help as I fell asleep - but I see my trade never did make BE so the biggest mistake was giving it another go rather than waiting for the London open!! This learning curve can be pretty steep at times, so many stupid errors. Anyway, now the EU is going for another climb :-) .......
  • #283,159
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:41am Aug 18, 2010 7:41am
Quoting wannaberich
during asian session i got stopped out on my how do know how many longs.

to see it at these levels again... that's life.

loosing 200 pips is not so bad. really bad is knowing i saw 500 pips positive and didnt' close it looking for higher levels. it's called greed, don't know if you heard of it LOL

long again 6 position for the 939 still! from 45 and from 80.

let's get those pips back!

hapipipin
Hell yeah i know what is greed lol
You didn't book 500 pips ? damn man...you should have that's quiet a lot..i've never done that in my life lol
But maybe today you'll get back what you could have earned yesterday.
We are both long for once, let's hope we'll see 1,2950

Good luck to you
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #283,160
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:41am Aug 18, 2010 7:41am
some help me out here,what has rally got to do with bond sales? yesterday its irish bonds today its spanish and the eur is up,i am more of a technical trader can someone shower some light on this
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