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  • #283,121
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:57am Aug 18, 2010 4:57am
Quoting billymoney
We dont even able to break 2900, that area has been reject for like what? 4-5 times... Pretty sure someone do not want euro to be >1.29

It broke the line 1.2909 now... it is maybe an uptrend now
  • #283,122
  • Aug 18, 2010 4:58am Aug 18, 2010 4:58am
Quoting DrLobo
Hi everyone,

I think I am missing something when it comes to understanding pivot points.

From last few days of trading prices dont appear to hang around or gravitate to the daily pivot point prices as easily as people say they do. They dont seem to touch the Support or Resistance lines, most of the time they appear to linger somewhere in between.

Then I realised that there is also pivot points can be plotted in different time frames and hourly pivot points seem to give a better picture of where prices are finding support and resistance.

Anyway...

On every timeframe you should see pivots at same numbers. Important is your broker time shift. For example i have +3GMT and look at my charts.
Almost perfect bounce from support. Most Pivots are correct if your broker starts day between NY close and Asia open. Usualy High and low is formed between Asia open and NY close, and from that is pivot counted.
  • #283,123
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:05am Aug 18, 2010 5:05am
1,2950 shouldn't be too long now...vol increasing as we go up...PA is supporting the move up..higher highs higher lows higher close bla bla bla
Maybe a retracement towards 1,2980 to grab more buyers then up we go
And usdcad broke his support...now it's time for the euro to broke his.

Gogo China, sell some dollars...
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #283,124
  • Edited 5:24am Aug 18, 2010 5:07am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting fontu
may be depression who have no means to earn more money as already being papers only & next to downgrade to waste toilet tissue, simply can be applied for currencies but not any real things in this world even the toilet tissue itself as being costly than money denominated next time .
[size=2][font=Arial]so may be depression as is a fashion in describing economy now-a-days while everybody is wealthier day by day.The pronzi scheme can never run success , grow again...
Im telling everybody i know to buy stuff like cottages in the woods with a well, and some trees on the property to cut down for the winters, instead of having saved money in accounts. Up here you can get a piece of land with a house, youre own well, and plowed land for potatoes for 50.000 USD, no problem. A nice cottage without land where you can live in all year around for around 20.000 USD, though that would lie a couple of miles from any towns. Me and some friends are planning to store 2 trucks full of stuff we would need for bad times up ahead 2012 or 2013 if finally people realise money and especially the dollar, is nothing but paper these days after its value have been destroyed by fraud and consumption.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #283,125
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:11am Aug 18, 2010 5:11am
Daily Pivot Points were first used by floor traders. They were used to have easy to calculate reference price on what price was doing. ES with only market hours pivots will give you a good example on how they work (especially if you have older intraday data).

Now, an outside of very pit oriented instrument and to some extend the ES (where they still hold some value) Daily Pivots only have a small impact as long as the instrument you are trading have enough traders watching at them (A self-fulfilling prophecy).

In other words, if you plot hourly Pivots on the Mexican Peso, they are going to be as valid as any random line you decide to use. For other forex instruments like eur/usd pair for example daily pivots can give you some reference lines (not tradable points) on where is the market in relation of last day of trading.

Some people divide their charts in 1/8 (Murray Math), others in 1/4 (adapted dow theory), others in 1/3 (original dow theory), others in Grids (Gann) and a few other in the use Fib ret/ext lines. All of them can be v good or v bad if you understand what are you doing but only as reference lines and never for blind entries...

I hope it helps

sisse


Quoting DrLobo
Hi everyone,

I think I am missing something when it comes to understanding pivot points.

From last few days of trading prices dont appear to hang around or gravitate to the daily pivot point prices as easily as people say they do. They dont seem to touch the Support or Resistance lines, most of the time they appear to linger somewhere in between.

Then I realised that there is also pivot points can be plotted in different time frames and hourly pivot points seem to give a better picture of where prices are finding support and resistance.

Anyway...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #283,126
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:19am Aug 18, 2010 5:19am
Quoting sopel
so you can go short

Give it time... market doesn't move allways in straight line. Unloaded half with 50 pips... rest SL + 24 or tp at 1.2950

Everyone can be wrong, but this is my scenario :

you are correct, and your forecast already done with 1,29 because you are using 5 minutes chart.
Thanks for your post.
next time plz use 1 hour chart to be clear when will be reach 1,295.

I am short again from 1,2906.
  • #283,127
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:20am Aug 18, 2010 5:20am
we need a pullback this last run up looks like exhaustion for me...

ill wait for 70 and 50-60 support levels to do some action....

in the morning i bought for 40 then was the spike and got rejected closed for 4 pips, was considering of an new buy at 30 but didnt do it then was a chance at the break and the first retrace but also didnt took...
  • #283,128
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:27am Aug 18, 2010 5:27am
Thank you very much, this makes better sense to me. I was confused because some trading videos were saying trading using pivots its so easy its not even trading. And everything looks great from there video (life goes from pivot to R1, back to pivot and back up to R1 all easy and nice 80 pips) but its not something that was transferring accross to real time data that I was seeing.

So it makes sense but now its like the more you know the less you know. Dont trust indicators, pivot points, and careful with fake break outs.



Quoting sisse
Daily Pivot Points were first used by floor traders. They were used to have easy to calculate reference price on what price was doing. ES with only market hours pivots will give you a good example on how they work (especially if you have older intraday data)....
  • #283,129
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:31am Aug 18, 2010 5:31am
Very , very nice pattern appeared...
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/9...27159d674c.png
  • #283,130
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:33am Aug 18, 2010 5:33am
Correlation is so fucked up nowadays...
We gotta live with it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #283,131
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:37am Aug 18, 2010 5:37am
Quoting DrLobo
Thank you very much, this makes better sense to me. I was confused because some trading videos were saying trading using pivots its so easy its not even trading. And everything looks great from there video (life goes from pivot to R1, back to pivot and back up to R1 all easy and nice 80 pips) but its not something that was transferring accross to real time data that I was seeing.

So it makes sense but now its like the more you know the less you know. Dont trust indicators, pivot points, and careful with fake break outs.

Its full of Hocus Pocus trading, you cant trust anything soley, there is no sure fire method that works 100% of the time.
Fibs Pivots Indicators (CCI,RSI,MAC).

Doing this 7 odd years now and Trendlines work the best for me of a 4hr and D1 chart and dont forget that trendlines are there to be tested and broke too so theres no point putting the farm on anyone trade.

Where those pivot points are normally quite reliable is when you have fast moving price action and you need to know where to get out.


While price is like this doing nothing much pivots are useless IMO.
rat
  • #283,132
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:46am Aug 18, 2010 5:46am
Just came home from work, and EU rocket to 2900. Very nice.. One buy limit at 2865
  • #283,133
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:47am Aug 18, 2010 5:47am
I'm really getting confused. I don't want to cause panic here (like if I could ) but yesterday, I was looking at possible reverse head and shoulders and today I am looking at possible head and shoulders in a bunch of timeframes and pairs - EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD. Focusing in EURUSD, I see possible head and shoulders in M5, H1 and H4. As a matter of fact, I think in H4 the market is trying to give us a head... Hopefuly, this uncertainty is going to end soon...
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  • #283,134
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:52am Aug 18, 2010 5:52am
Thats all i need for my trading
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If you now the Way out -- please tell me
  • #283,135
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:52am Aug 18, 2010 5:52am
Also I was telling a mate (who trades for ABN AMRO) of mine a few months back about my new candle stick knowlegde to my trading armoury, Dojis Dark cloud cover etc.

He told me remember that theres a good few thousand people looking at that same doji, hanging man etc. the banks may want this Euro down but first they will screw as many people out as they can before triggering it off.

This had me fooled this AM. I´m still short and way out of court 50 pips now. Plenty of people got sucked in when it hit 12830ish short and the price has been driven back up to 129 again

Its appears the banks have now had there fun and are dropping this Euro back down to where it was this AM for the US open. Maybe I´m wrong but we will see.
rat
  • #283,136
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:56am Aug 18, 2010 5:56am
Quoting rattyo
Also I was telling a mate (who trades for ABN AMRO) of mine a few months back about my new candle stick knowlegde to my trading armoury, Dojis Dark cloud cover etc.

He told me remember that theres a good few thousand people looking at that same doji, hanging man etc. the banks may want this Euro down but first they will screw as many people out as they can before triggering it off.

This had me fooled this AM. I´m still short and way out of court 50 pips now. Plenty of people got sucked in when it hit 12830ish short and the price has been driven...
Thats the way it happens all the time.. But looking at trend lines it seems going down.. Looking for a short now...
  • #283,137
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:57am Aug 18, 2010 5:57am
bear is now being ready, in my case it is revenge to talk about bull, we were at correction of down trend of 2008-2010 why you are talking about bull ?
could you tell me why? thanks
Good companion, is a trophy.
  • #283,138
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:09am Aug 18, 2010 6:09am
Tempting to sell around this area but shall wait until one of the two purple spots are hit. If we break above 1.2900 then 1.3000 should follow pretty quickly.

EUR/USD H1
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  • #283,139
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:12am Aug 18, 2010 6:12am
Quoting rattyo
Also I was telling a mate (who trades for ABN AMRO) of mine a few months back about my new candle stick knowlegde to my trading armoury, Dojis Dark cloud cover etc.
In my experience candlestick patterns are more accurate on higher TFs (H1-H4-daily)
  • #283,140
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:13am Aug 18, 2010 6:13am
Quoting yaser2us
bear is now being ready, in my case it is revenge to talk about bull, we were at correction of down trend of 2008-2010 why you are talking about bull ?
could you tell me why? thanks

Look at the 4H, it made nearly 38.2% a retracement from the move to 3333 and is going up again with volume...


If it´s really going down then there will be much better times to go short than now
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