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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,681
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:45pm Aug 16, 2010 9:45pm
Quoting Deanchain
I still believe Japan will do something before yen goes to 80.
It will climb at least to 89 or 90 first, base on my chart, except if there is a very long downward spike...

It is a very high possiblility to have double bottom around 84,73..

that would invalidate the downtrend.......highly unlikely that it will get to 88 before 80
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  • #17,682
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:49pm Aug 16, 2010 9:49pm
Quoting mfoste1
that would invalidate the downtrend.......highly unlikely that it will get to 88 before 80
I don't know about that.

What TF are you looking at?
  • #17,683
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:49pm Aug 16, 2010 9:49pm
Quoting Deanchain
I still believe Japan will do something before yen goes to 80.
It will climb at least to 89 or 90 first, base on my chart, except if there is a very long downward spike...

It is a very high possiblility to have double bottom around 84,73..
If it reaches 84.73 I expect it to brake down to 84 even. That should take out most longs waiting at 84.70 - 84.90.

After scraring the hell out of everyone we should see a steady climb back to 89 - 90 levels.
  • #17,684
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:50pm Aug 16, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting mfoste1
that would invalidate the downtrend.......highly unlikely that it will get to 88 before 80
I agree....I don't see a reason for a climb of any significance at the moment....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,685
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:51pm Aug 16, 2010 9:51pm
Quoting realjumper
I agree....I don't see a reason for a climb of any significance at the moment....

hehehe......a 300 pip rise from here? keep dreamin....this has 3 months of solid selling pressure behind it. Yen is being accumulated very heavily right now.
  • #17,686
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:54pm Aug 16, 2010 9:54pm
OK, I see the TF now.

Looking at the weekly 90 could be a real possibility w/o it breaking the seemingly never ending downward trend, and as for now it doesn't look like that trend is going to be broken.

Still trading Long on this Pair. Does it make sense? Maybe not.
  • #17,687
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:57pm Aug 16, 2010 9:57pm
Quoting Astroman
OK, I see the TF now.

Looking at the weekly 90 could be a real possibility w/o it breaking the seemingly never ending downward trend, and as for now it doesn't look like that trend is going to be broken.

Still trading Long on this Pair. Does it make sense? Maybe not.

the only way we would get to 90 is boj intervening, which they arent going to do.....yen is being bought heavily right now against every single currency.....it would take a global fundamental shift for this to reach 90.
  • #17,688
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:58pm Aug 16, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting mfoste1
hehehe......a 300 pip rise from here? keep dreamin....this has 3 months of solid selling pressure behind it. Yen is being accumulated very heavily right now.
Yeah...however I'm not prepared to take a position either way on this.....I don't know how far down this will go, but I do think that low 80's are possible. From there it could range for a long time until something sparks so weakness in the Yen.....I can't for the life of me see that coming yet though
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,689
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:03pm Aug 16, 2010 10:03pm
Quoting mfoste1
the only way we would get to 90 is boj intervening, which they arent going to do.....yen is being bought heavily right now against every single currency.....it would take a global fundamental shift for this to reach 90.
I agree with most of the above but not all.

I was just responding when you said "that would invalidate the downtrend."
On the weekly TF it could hit 90 without violating the downtrend.
  • #17,690
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:07pm Aug 16, 2010 10:07pm
Quoting mfoste1
hehehe......a 300 pip rise from here? keep dreamin....this has 3 months of solid selling pressure behind it. Yen is being accumulated very heavily right now.
Similar sentiments when everyone thought the Euro was headed to 1.6 and higher, and later when the Euro was finished as a currency and headed to par with the Dollar. This type of mentality has been played out time and time again.

When everyone is lined up on one side, guess what??????
  • #17,691
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:13pm Aug 16, 2010 10:13pm
Quoting auxesis
Similar sentiments when everyone thought the Euro was headed to 1.6 and higher, and later when the Euro was finished as a currency and headed to par with the Dollar. This type of mentality has been played out time and time again.

When everyone is lined up on one side, guess what??????
maybe so......but yen is being accumulated for a reason. Euro had no business being @ 1.60, the severity of EZ is just now being uncovered, and it all started before eu was ever at 1.60.....pure speculation and devaluation of the dollar. My point is, this is not a speculative run for the yen....its risk aversion. I just find it very hard to see a reason why the yen would be sold.
  • #17,692
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:18pm Aug 16, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting mfoste1
My point is, this is not a speculative run for the yen....its risk aversion.
Risk aversion?

It has been my experience that the moods that make Risk Aversion up are very fickle. One week it is in, the next it is out....
  • #17,693
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:24pm Aug 16, 2010 10:24pm
Quoting auxesis
Similar sentiments when everyone thought the Euro was headed to 1.6 and higher, and later when the Euro was finished as a currency and headed to par with the Dollar. This type of mentality has been played out time and time again.

When everyone is lined up on one side, guess what??????
83% of traders are still lined up on the long side for this pair......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,694
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:24pm Aug 16, 2010 10:24pm
Quoting Astroman
Risk aversion?

It has been my experience that the moods that make Risk Aversion up are very fickle. One week it is in, the next it is out....

wait till the real risk aversion mode hits combined with record volumes.......this is just summer trading.

risk appetite drives the market
  • #17,695
  • Aug 16, 2010 11:01pm Aug 16, 2010 11:01pm
(Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa may meet as early as next week to discuss the yen's strength and possible responses, although likely options are seen as limited.

More Here
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,696
  • Aug 16, 2010 11:51pm Aug 16, 2010 11:51pm
sick today ... no mood to read lenghty winding articles from bloomberg or reuters .... anyone can help me with the essence of it in plain english .... ?

thanks ...
  • #17,697
  • Aug 16, 2010 11:54pm Aug 16, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting TheArcher
sick today ... no mood to read lenghty winding articles from bloomberg or reuters .... anyone can help me with the essence of it in plain english .... ?

thanks ...
boj isnt going to intervene
  • #17,698
  • Aug 17, 2010 12:02am Aug 17, 2010 12:02am
Quoting TheArcher
sick today ... no mood to read lenghty winding articles from bloomberg or reuters .... anyone can help me with the essence of it in plain english .... ?

thanks ...
It's worth the read
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,699
  • Aug 17, 2010 12:04am Aug 17, 2010 12:04am
Quoting mfoste1
boj isnt going to intervene
Chances seem slim but ruling that out do you think this Pair has a good chance of seeing 87 before 84?
  • #17,700
  • Aug 17, 2010 12:07am Aug 17, 2010 12:07am
Quoting Astroman
Chances seem slim but ruling that out do you think this Pair has a good chance of seeing 87 before 84?
I don't

Anything is possible of course....but 87 isn't looking likely at the moment
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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