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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #9,721
  • Aug 9, 2010 3:49pm Aug 9, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting gez40
The one thing that was always in the back of my mind when trying out DIBS were the comments made by PC, mentioning "certain mathematical tiping points" and "insider secrets that pay for our millionare houses", made me feel DIBS was only partly shared and not the full strategy. Never really had the confidence in it after that.

Daily all the way for me.
PC just liked to sound cryptic, not that there is anything to add to DIBS that he didn't say. He's not the first to talk about DIBS. There is also a IB thread in this forum where we discuss about trading it in M30 and we're making some appreciable progress there. If you also look up investopedia you'll see that great trader have even traded it in M15 with BB. It's only a question of what you're able to manage. Your personality and time.

Precap2
Mystery Is The Final Product Of Ignorance. Hey! What's ma chart doin'
  • #9,722
  • Aug 10, 2010 3:17am Aug 10, 2010 3:17am
Quoting RussiaTrader
i am also here to tell u guys that i traded DIBS originally system with the excact rules like PC AND with proper MM and RM (risking 1% per trade) and lost a hell of money through a 8 month period.

i lost it slowly, and all the time i couldn t belive it.
then very late i backtest it by myself, what i have done always before i make trades and in the backtests i found out "DIBS is not working with the original rules from PC"

so keep your finger away from making DIBS-even with proper MM and RM. you will lose money.
maybe you need some kind of filter-then...
Completely with you, Russian Trader.
And very sad, because if I remember well, you were among the most enthusiastic about this method on this forum a while ago. It did not take me that long to dismiss the hole thing: I lost 1/3 of my - micro - capital in the first week of this year and understood. I have since recouped and a bit more, but with a different method and also not trading FX exclusively. Some instruments are far less capricious than currencies.
All the best
Yiehom
Patience is magic
  • #9,723
  • Aug 11, 2010 3:26am Aug 11, 2010 3:26am
what if u take the body of the IB as a distance stop from the previous (longer) bar ? and target: the full lenght of the IB
  • #9,724
  • Aug 12, 2010 8:05am Aug 12, 2010 8:05am
I think some "traders" need a little perspective.

first of all, if a professional money runner turns 15 to 20 points a year, he is a rock star. Chances are, he or she is not day trading. Do you really think there are all these rock stars sitting at home making 10 to 15 K a month from a tiny account - (for god sake's look at all the "expert" analysis you see in the news and Fx sites - they should print that shit on toilet paper. I can't remember the last time I "analyzed" chart or tried to figure out "why a trade went wrong" - none of my trades are wrong) That's like thinking there are all these michael jordan's playing in school yards across the US that have never ever been discovered. There could be one or two, but get serious.

think of how many professionals exploded in the last 3 years "cuz they just didnt see the turn in the market come" yet any disciplined trend trader would have been rolling in it.

Since Nov I've taken an account from about 6K in equity up to under 11, down to about 5 1/2 and back up to 8ish. Not a lot in dollar returns, but from a percentage basis, its about 33% annually. I don't even keep track of how many trades I have won or lost.

Second, the whole concept of a "year" is arbitrary (which blows my whole annual return out of the water), your goal is to continuously compound your account. all you need to do is stay alive until that big run comes and you make your money in lumps.

If you are blowing up playing smaller time frames, it may be that you are either sizing too large, or havent figures out a proper trailing/SL strategy to use. If I was playing on hourly charts, I wouldnt dream of using more than .25% of my account per position
  • #9,725
  • Aug 12, 2010 9:37am Aug 12, 2010 9:37am
It isnt hard to paint a picture based on what the past has done, and therefore almost anyone could guess that holding a EUR long position, regardless of its size, from the period of 2001 to 2008 would have netted an incredible profit + a handsome return on positive swap.

That is basically what it comes down to and it is honest for the majors for that period of time. Now when it comes to backtesting something, it is difficult to pull yourself away from something that you have witnessed and be completely fair about it. I mean for example, if your a dedicated tester, not a fly by thread kind of person who thinks that a years worth of testing is going to be sufficient enough to provide you with future information, an edge, but someone who looks back as far as they can, then you would have realised something that very few people understand and why so many people dont get it when things start to fall apart..... In my simple 10 year testing period I had a huge loss on profits (floating) when the crash occured HOWEVER I still had over 20 positions that survived due to those positions on the EUR been executed before the 1.0000 mark. In fact positions opened just after 1.1000 where still in play and whilst the swap rate had diminished some, I was still in profit quite nicely.

I will also be one of the first to tell you that from Juneish to about September 2009 I struggled with trading for a couple of reasons. I dont trade full time so some of the trades that I could have taken I missed and some of the trades I took just failed. That was about 3-4 months of pain. 2009/10 has been pretty tough in general for hourly inside bars, HOWEVER there are still plenty of good trades to be made out of it.

So does it all mean that trading by the set out rules is busted? Far from it. I mean only about 5-6 pages ago you had a few traders holding great short positions that realised great profits. Yes they may have there own take on some of the guidelines and to be honest, after testing for so long they probably should do. PC stated that he could spot potential breakouts that were far more likely to succeed but very few people have factored that comment into play. Instead you just look at the past few months and realise that a loss occurs. Well lets see, first you where short sub 1.3000 on EUR (this is an example), then EUR rebounded from sub 1.2000 and came back past 1.3000. So for the shorts that were up around 1000 pips plus, well they got smashed. Now your in a pickle, because whilst one larger timeframe trend is down, another is up and you dont know whether the pathetic EUR is going to fall again or rise so any longs you have your holding nervously because you dont want to loose out again.

Trading successfully with this type of approach requires a thicker hide. Sometimes crap happens and you look at great profits sink into nothing. If that is the case then work out a way to hold trades and scale them back at a point to ensure some capital growth. However remember that history tends to lend us some clues and there will always be a long term bullish run at some point and vice versa.

If you find yourself unable to cope with a few loosing months then move on, trading is not about winning every month and every year. Some time in the future you may find yourself on the negative side for the better part of a year but KNOWING what you have done and achieved, what you have tested over a period longer than your last tantrum and the long term results that that testing has given will give you some confirmation that your on the right path.

And BTW if I had been trading successfully for 20 years and was trading for a living I would obviously have the right method for me and I would be doing everything in my power to extract the maximum out of it. I doubt that I would be looking and trying things that cost me money for 8 months straight with only negative results. No offence but that is my personal view.

Best of luck to you all

RT
  • #9,726
  • Aug 12, 2010 9:55am Aug 12, 2010 9:55am
Quoting razorboy
I think some "traders" need a little perspective.

first of all, if a professional money runner turns 15 to 20 points a year, he is a rock star. Chances are, he or she is not day trading. Do you really think there are all these rock stars sitting at home making 10 to 15 K a month from a tiny account - (for god sake's look at all the "expert" analysis you see in the news and Fx sites - they should print that shit on toilet paper. I can't remember the last time I "analyzed" chart or tried to figure out "why a trade went wrong" - none of my...
Perfectly said.

I find it exceptional, actually astronomically difficult to imagine that there are people here who have compounded there account by more than 100% or more and who are still trading. I will add to that also because I know for a fact there are some out there who have taken $500 to $5000 and may still be in play today however that amount is not enough to live on and congratulations if you think it matters. Why doesnt it matter, well quite frankly it might be enough to impress new traders and sell some subscriptions but your chances of improving the position to wealth is severally rare and improbable.

That is what attacts most people and the reality is that behind the 1000% returns lies an insignificant amount of money (or none in the case of demo dwellers) that means nothing if lost. I could almost point to enough threads that have it, and I could point to enough threads that also have constant failure either before the event or in the quest to continue the event. What is does for you is cripple the chances you have of long term success. I mean honestly would you trade the exact same way with $500 aiming for $5000 as you would with $500,000 looking for 5 million, or more relatively 50k looking for $500,000. The answer would be a big no, unless of course you already had millions and 50k was side change which would put you in the moot column anyway.

Long term success means being able to weather the storm in search of the sun on the other side. You dont know how long the storm will last for but you can be almost guarenteed that there will be long periods of sunshine with short bursts of heat stroke (the great times).

To achieve on a regular basis, over the period of years, 20% + ROI would do you far more justice in terms of being able to do it successfully with greater amounts of capital then a 1 year run with 1000% +. In the end if you could build enough confidence in yourself to manage 100k + then you would find quite quickly that your 20% ROI would overshadow Mr GET RICH FAST. It would happen either through the account sizes returns being larger or MR GRF blowing up in spectacular fashion, which I am sure as happened to so many in the past and it isnt just limited to small players. Meriwether and co over at LTCM fell and they were some of the brightest trading minds of the past century, many others have also fallen.

Take care

RT
  • #9,727
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:06am Aug 15, 2010 11:06am
well i am a daytrader and expect at least 10 month to be profitable in a year to make a living out of it.

so i was exactly entering the trades like Peter Crown has told us to do.
i just traded the 3 majors.

well i am happy that i dont have to argument here with you or proof that i have done it right or wrong loosing 8 month in a row with trading DIBS.

for me that contains useful informations regarding this strategy.
and i just wanted to give this valuable information to you while reading this thread.
i always respect those guys who give this for me not profitable strategy a try.

have a good day
and good luck in trading DIBS
RT
  • #9,728
  • Aug 16, 2010 5:02am Aug 16, 2010 5:02am
I believe you learned some thing in the adventure?
I learned things like these :
-Forex is to volatile to be traded on such a short time frame as one hour. -There are some less volatile instruments to trade if you are not well funded.
Be very very cautious about trading systems you meet for the first time. The best system is the one you design by yourself, and it takes time to have it done.

Quoting RussiaTrader
well i am a daytrader and expect at least 10 month to be profitable in a year to make a living out of it.

so i was exactly entering the trades like Peter Crown has told us to do.
i just traded the 3 majors.

well i am happy that i dont have to argument here with you or proof that i have done it right or wrong loosing 8 month in a row with trading DIBS.

for me that contains useful informations regarding this strategy.
and i just wanted to give this valuable information to you while reading this thread.
i always respect those guys who give this...
Patience is magic
  • #9,729
  • Aug 16, 2010 7:56am Aug 16, 2010 7:56am
If you aren't going to post the exact rules that you followed, why bother wasting your time posting here at all

You are essentially saying "Trust Me" without really giving anyone any reason to trust you. You follow PC's rules? Really? So what sort of trailing stop did you use
Did you do any back testing before you jumped it? Did you have any clue of the sort of drawdown you might have been looking at before you started wasting money?

"well i am happy that i dont have to argument here with you or proof that i have done it right or wrong loosing 8 month in a row with trading DIBS."

Dibs Bad...that's your argument

You don't like it, don't use it, but when you throw garbage out in a forum like this, without backing it up, you are just wasting space - the point of posting here is to back up your arguments!

I've posted enough information on here that someone could easily recreate my results. the same cannot be said for you my friend


rules
Quoting RussiaTrader
well i am a daytrader and expect at least 10 month to be profitable in a year to make a living out of it.

so i was exactly entering the trades like Peter Crown has told us to do.
i just traded the 3 majors.

well i am happy that i dont have to argument here with you or proof that i have done it right or wrong loosing 8 month in a row with trading DIBS.

for me that contains useful informations regarding this strategy.
and i just wanted to give this valuable information to you while reading this thread.
i always respect those guys who give this...
  • #9,730
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:24am Aug 16, 2010 9:24am
RussiaTrader, remember me?

BUT, big surprise, I'm not here to tell that this system doesn't work.

If you would have traded, from the beginning of this year, the 3 majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY), taking all signals and taking profits after exactly 20 days, risking 1% of your account on every trade, you would have had a meaningless drawdown and a 200% increase of your ballance.

I can't realise how you have lost, as any kind of imaginable kind of stop would have worked. EMA's, SMA's, 10 days, 100 days, 29.75123 days, even closing the position at 3x, 5x, 10x would have been suitable.

This doesn't mean that the markets will trend in the same way and this strategy will not bankrupt you or other trader in the future.
  • #9,731
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:28am Aug 16, 2010 9:28am
RussiaTrader, remember me?

BUT, big surprise, I'm not here to tell that this system doesn't work.

If you would have traded, from the beginning of this year, the 3 majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY), taking all signals and taking profits after exactly 20 days, risking 1% of your account on every trade, you would have had a meaningless drawdown and a 200% increase of your ballance. Even more, if you played aggressively, with some double or nothing trend following system.

I can't realise how you have lost, as any kind of imaginable kind of stop would have worked. EMA's, SMA's, 10 days, 100 days, 29.75123 days, even closing the position at 3x, 5x, 10x would have worked.

This doesn't mean that the markets will trend in the same way and this strategy will not bankrupt you or other trader in the future.
  • #9,732
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:32am Aug 16, 2010 9:32am
Was this playing off of hourly charts?


Quoting Sauron
RussiaTrader, remember me?

BUT, big surprise, I'm not here to tell that this system doesn't work.

If you would have traded, from the beginning of this year, the 3 majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY), taking all signals and taking profits after exactly 20 days, risking 1% of your account on every trade, you would have had a meaningless drawdown and a 200% increase of your ballance.

I can't realise how you have lost, as any kind of imaginable kind of stop would have worked. EMA's, SMA's, 10 days, 100 days, 29.75123...
  • #9,733
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:53am Aug 16, 2010 9:53am
Quoting razorboy
Was this playing off of hourly charts?
Yeap, hourly charts. And exactly after the rules of PC.
  • #9,734
  • Aug 16, 2010 9:59am Aug 16, 2010 9:59am
one of the areas where PC was not clear on was if he would only add to existing position on IB's that formed during London/NY AM trading or if he would add whenever the next IB formed

Of course, this would require some mechanism to trade 24 hours a day.

Also, how do you liquidate positions that broke the the trailing stop out side of the prescribed trading times....other than using an EA?

What would make life way easier is if you could come up with a chart that only used the London NYam for data....im not that skilled of a programmer to hack that out myself


Quoting Sauron
Yeap, hourly charts. And exactly after the rules of PC.
  • #9,735
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:33am Aug 16, 2010 10:33am
Quoting razorboy
one of the areas where PC was not clear on was if he would only add to existing position on IB's that formed during London/NY AM trading or if he would add whenever the next IB formed
I think he added only during the London/NY, after every IB.

Quoting razorboy
Also, how do you liquidate positions that broke the the trailing stop out side of the prescribed trading times....other than using an EA?
It is better to liquidate after a certain time, like N days, instead of trailing stops or touches of moving averages. I don't like using indicators at all.
  • #9,736
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:43am Aug 16, 2010 10:43am
I use a close below a moving average, rather than just a touch, but I am sure that if i tested between the two the difference would be negligible. Depending on pair I am trading, I use a 20 to 30 day MA...........again, it doesnt really matter

I use time stops for trading FSP - I made the mistake of trading USD vs Euro,gbp, yen and chf AND the GBY/YEN - which means you are doubling down on the the g/u and u/j - I mentioned this to Joel Rensink - he said he was aware of the issue, but traded it anyways. I have recently dropped the GBY/YEN from the trade plan.

I wish I actually had the time and capital to play hourly bars

Quoting Sauron
I think he added only during the London/NY, after every IB.


It is better to liquidate after a certain time, like N days, instead of trailing stops or touches of moving averages. I don't like using indicators at all.
  • #9,737
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:47am Aug 16, 2010 10:47am
Quoting razorboy
..... I am currently testing Firststrike with a small account and found that I should really drop a pair from my trade list. Even at 50% drawdown, the only thing that is painful is the Monday 1 am wake up to place trades
which pair did you drop in your FirstStrike test please? Are you testing FirstStrike or FirstStrikePlus??
  • #9,738
  • Aug 16, 2010 11:14am Aug 16, 2010 11:14am
Quoting muntu ntu
..... Some instruments are far less capricious than currencies.
All the best
Yiehom
Can you please share the other intruments you traded with better results than currencies ?
  • #9,739
  • Aug 16, 2010 4:26pm Aug 16, 2010 4:26pm
Sorry to ask this here, but I've been unable to access the Marketplace at the Trader's Roundtable: could you post here (or email me at cavok4x at gmail dot com) the Dibs' blox?
Thanks in advance
  • #9,740
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:03pm Aug 16, 2010 8:03pm
Quoting Sauron
RussiaTrader, remember me?

BUT, big surprise, I'm not here to tell that this system doesn't work.

If you would have traded, from the beginning of this year, the 3 majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY), taking all signals and taking profits after exactly 20 days, risking 1% of your account on every trade, you would have had a meaningless drawdown and a 200% increase of your ballance. Even more, if you played aggressively, with some double or nothing trend following system.

I can't realise how you have lost,...
I am surprised, not at the results but there was a small change in your attitude.

I agree to some extent, but not to complete destruction of account, that future conditions will erode some of the gains. It is always a nice thing to think that the markets will forever trend in your favour but alas this is not the case and the markets will and do have sustained periods of consolidation which do make getting some good long tail entries very difficult. However there is still the fact that the risk measures are quite small and the profit measures (as outlined by your 200% increase which is a nice return) can be monstous. Depending on the trader and their willingness to hold profits there can be very nice returns on the otherside. Profit taking can and will always be a discretionary act that can work both ways. You can hold profits in order for higher profits while risking some loss, or you can take profits with the risk of missing big moves.

Take care, and once again yes I am surprised

RT
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