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  • #282,081
  • Aug 14, 2010 7:19pm Aug 14, 2010 7:19pm
Some disturbing data from Portugal: In the country with the biggest private debt per capita of the EZ only 1/3 of the citizens are saving for retirement, most donīt have a clue of what compound interest is...

In this country we have 12 years of mandatory education, in wich We learn all kinds of useless things, from poetry to exotic philosophy, but in the great majority of the courses they wonīt teach you what Compound interest is and other things important for everyone of us.
  • #282,082
  • Aug 14, 2010 7:46pm Aug 14, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting dfptommyj
it doesnt happen over night, give it some time and high prices indicate good for economy
Tell that to the people of the Weimar Republic . Hyperinflation hit the poor folks so hard that there were times when they went to buy some food in the local shop only to find out the price had already more than doubled since last time
I suggest this excellent book to you :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Obelisk
What makes the comparison better is that we all know what followed ... a guy called Hitler came to power. Imagine what a similar leader figure could do with the US. Oo Whatever the case, death toll would be sky high.
Anyway, to stay on topic what I think happened in the US is that the low rates and easy policy are having only their negative effects right now. Usually low rates have the effect of a powerful drug or "stimulant" to the economy. You know what happens when you give an athlete stimulants - you get increased performance at the expense of damaging his health. Right now the US policy is only destructive, not supportive. We get inflation, but we don't get growth. The unemployment is high, yet prices are rising. Can you guess how great consumers unemployed people are? And add inflation to the picture.
Btw on the technical side I hear that the Hindenburg omen was in effect Thursday on the US stocks. This could indicate a coming crash:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hindenburg-omen-here
  • #282,083
  • Aug 14, 2010 8:47pm Aug 14, 2010 8:47pm
Quoting SunTrader
1) I am not questioning the effectiveness of these levels.
2) I am well aware of how to determine my own S/R numbers - some of which might line up with yours.
3) My original question was not answered. How do newbies benefit if they just see lines plotted on a chart?
I am not even bothering with this post.

I was just trying to be a decent guy and post a chart for those newbies that struggle with s/r.

How do they benefit ? Your question just sound like is meant to be antagonistic. Is it ?

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...and_resistance
http://www.babypips.com/school/suppo...esistance.html
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...cal/061801.asp
http://www.traderslog.com/determinin...stance-levels/

and a very good article on support and resistance zones

http://traderscom.stores.yahoo.net/v13034thestr.html

s/r is the very basics of trading ...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #282,084
  • Aug 14, 2010 8:57pm Aug 14, 2010 8:57pm
There is the obvious possibility that we hold the monthly pivot area of the mid 27xx's going as low as 2720 - 2730 then bounce. If this setup plays out i'm looking for a bounce back up to around 3455ish. The 2nd setup is a retrace down to the 2600 area (50%) which imo could setup a higher bounce to at least 36xx....
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  • #282,085
  • Aug 14, 2010 9:01pm Aug 14, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting uraceulose
i think he said they're fib "zones"...it would appear so too w/o even putting them on my own chart and just looking at that one. 38.2, 50 and 61.8 "zones"??
it seemed like it was an indi that he had that draws them up every major market open
nope they are support / resistance lines drawn using the daily charts. ... nothing as complicated as fibs

I have an indie that basically plots support and resistance on multi time frames , on 15 min charts I plot 30 min and 60 min lines , on a daily i like the 480 min and daily lines. It is that I am to lazy to put them on my self.

Once a support is broken it becomes resistance , 90% of the time the pros will test the support line to look for more supply in the market, , there are all kinds of vsa setups that tell you if s.r is going to hold or break .... but I am not going into depth on those right now

Here is a classic test of resistance once support is broken

I am not a big lover of fibs. Instead I use high volume pivots for trading and my major s/r level as this is where the max volume of trades happen for each trading session . The indie I have allows me to plot these for the last 20 session

Before suntrader tells me there is no such thing as volume for fx as he / she seems to have it in for me I use gtis 200 source feed for esignal and it is tick volume , which is very representative of action in the market. I was expecting higher prices after german gdp , but when I saw all the supply entering the market at 2900 my long was closed. I even made a few postings about this in this and the vsa thread.

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #282,086
  • Aug 14, 2010 9:05pm Aug 14, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I am not .............
reading what is posted back to you.

"for those that have issues with s/r lines ( newbies sometimes ask) thought i would post this daily that shows them pretty well for you to print out" ........... but just doesn't explain where/how they are derived.

My point which somehow just is not getting through is:

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.

Good trading.
  • #282,087
  • Aug 14, 2010 9:09pm Aug 14, 2010 9:09pm
here is a chart showing high vol pivots , look at how they form s/r to the pip on intraday 15 min charts , once of them was from 19 trading days ago

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Quoting malcolmb14
nope they are support / resistance lines drawn using the daily charts. ... nothing as complicated as fibs

I have an indie that basically plots support and resistance on multi time frames , on 15 min charts I plot 30 min and 60 min lines , on a daily i like the 480 min and daily lines. It is that I am to lazy to put them on my self.

Once a support is broken it becomes resistance...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #282,088
  • Aug 14, 2010 9:18pm Aug 14, 2010 9:18pm
Quoting SunTrader
reading what is posted back to you.

"for those that have issues with s/r lines ( newbies sometimes ask) thought i would post this daily that shows them pretty well for you to print out" ........... but just doesn't explain where/how they are derived.

My point which somehow just is not getting through is:

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.

Good trading.
so you are asking me to show them how they are plotted ?

i think that the strongest s/r lines are ones that can be confirmed with 2 tests or more , unless they are major pivot highs / lows .
This chart may explain better for newer traders so they can plot their own

Of course they may be minor s/r level were one daily high or low is touched in between the 2 point testers.

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #282,089
  • Aug 14, 2010 9:59pm Aug 14, 2010 9:59pm
as we start a week - and cleared up ...

The probability of withdrawal is determined to 1,25 discovery.

I have seen a return to the current trend.
http://forum.mql4.com/c/forum/2010/08/eurudh1_7.gif
http://forum.mql4.com/c/forum/2010/08/eurudh1_7.gif
  • #282,090
  • Aug 14, 2010 10:26pm Aug 14, 2010 10:26pm
Thanks Malc for clearing it up. VSA as always man if understood properly shows the way...it's still over my head but imo you, HG and maybe a handful of others(here) can truthfully explain market movement using pure VSA

edit: and as always VERY clear on your charts..thanks again
  • #282,091
  • Aug 14, 2010 10:44pm Aug 14, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
so you are asking me to show them how they are plotted ?
No.

How many times have I referred to newbies understanding - not myself.

Here is how I see and have seen S/R using EW(various chart pics have been posted in the past few weeks leading to the top) and daily pivots I use as well. And yes BTW I do consider ticks as a surrogate for volume with forex although I don't really put as much weight as true volume in stocks/bonds/options:
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  • #282,092
  • Aug 14, 2010 11:26pm Aug 14, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting SunTrader
No.

How many times have I referred to newbies understanding - not myself.

Here is how I see and have seen S/R using EW(various chart pics have been posted in the past few weeks leading to the top) and daily pivots I use as well. And yes BTW I do consider ticks as a surrogate for volume with forex although I don't really put as much weight as true volume in stocks/bonds/options:
ew and s/r ... very interesting. I think EW is very subjective and can change in a heartbeat. I have used advanced get in the past and when the wave count is wrong it just reprints and recalculates everything. I think the confluence of fibs work better as you show in your dynamic trader chart. BTW do you follow fib queen by chance .. she is a firm believer in these fib confluences

for me vsa is the best way to go in stock , bonds futures and fx. It works for me and that is what is most important , as your style works for you .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #282,093
  • Edited 12:35am Aug 15, 2010 12:20am | Edited 12:35am
Quoting SunTrader
Uhh, ya wanna bet?

They stimulated and nobody "came".

Now there ain't much left but smoke a ciggy and say hello to my little friend - DoubleDee dip #2.

Maybe they can continue to hire census workers every other month.

I also believe EU zone GDP report was smoke and mirrors.

But in the end it matters more what the charts (market participants cumulative opinion) say and not what any govmint does. To us traders anyway.
.... stimulus gone and American sheep wont stand for aig to bail out European banks this time. With euros stacked to the vault ceilings its great for the stress test shell game appearance. The banks are guaranteed by the country. the banks buy bonds from the country s thats backing them. .. so the country can pay its bills. a fricken ponzi .. scheme. liquidity slows, lending standards are raised so only people with the money can borrow the money for expansion, startups, inventory etc.
liquidity slows even more as unemployment increases since u.s. will be buying less imports. so liquidity slows even more. banks stop buying bonds or lending to each other. checkmate. gd2X... a crowd gathers.. rocks are thrown.. a shot rings out.. 2008 was postponed... we are closer to 0 then we were at 1.6...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #282,094
  • Aug 15, 2010 12:26am Aug 15, 2010 12:26am
Quoting dfptommyj
I dont think u r stupid matter of fact opposite and its good to have diferent views... what I think is we need more consumer confidence now because everything is set to go up, just more hireing, and no more bonds, so they stop printing $'s
whos printing? bs in the media?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #282,095
  • Aug 15, 2010 1:08am Aug 15, 2010 1:08am
Quoting malcolmb14
ew and s/r ... very interesting. I think EW is very subjective and can change in a heartbeat. I have used advanced get in the past and when the wave count is wrong it just reprints and recalculates everything. I think the confluence of fibs work better as you show in your dynamic trader chart. BTW do you follow fib queen by chance .. she is a firm believer in these fib confluences
I agree regarding EW artists... show me a one that never has to change his count, and I'll sit up and listen. There is some great sense to the basic underlying theory, but I think they get carried away in their wave counts. I think if you can show your wave pattern to an 8 year old and he can count the waves, you can gleen some information from it, but beyond an obvious pattern is just too subjective for my tastes.

I did like Miners work and his book made me a Fib Lover, and I use them extensively. I'll be interested to watch your posts over the coming months, because the whole, "There is no real volumn in FX" thing has kept me from looking seriously into VSA. And, no I don't want to debate if there is or isn't volumn, just saying I know its not as pure as say e-mini volumn, so I haven't invested any time studying VSA. Now I'll get a chance to see your charts and see how you're doing with it, so thanks for sharing.

The Queen still emails me, and I read her book as well. I think she does well with her method, and I think its sound. I believe there are many methods that will work, its finding what you are comfortable with that counts. We all come up with roughly the same areas of S/R and trade off them, which may be the entire reason TA works at all. Who cares if its a self fullfilling prophacy, its tradeable.
  • #282,096
  • Aug 15, 2010 1:13am Aug 15, 2010 1:13am
Quoting SunTrader
Freestockcharts dot com (free really / they don't have ads?) and FXStreet dot com ?? So you get no click ad compensation for those?

Seems that is the only true reason to have a blog these days.

I have no affiliation with freestockcharts or any other pay per click on my site. It is strictly informational. Right click on a link that you think looks suspicious and it will have some sort of id # if it is truly an affiliate. jdwcapital.com is a place for me to post my trades and help friends learn how to trade forex.

Due diligence my friend.
  • #282,097
  • Aug 15, 2010 1:22am Aug 15, 2010 1:22am
Quoting SunTrader
Listen my doubting the effect the govmint with stimulus or any other magic trick has had on the stock market rebound, which won't last, has nothing to do with the current occupant of the White House. Or for that matter the previous guy.

DC can screws things up sometimes but mostly if they stay out of the way the economy will right itself given time.

People have to realize that you can not build an economy from the bottom up. Our politicians have learned this lesson the hard way. Having said that I believe the EUR/USD will trade at parity within the next 3 years.
  • #282,098
  • Aug 15, 2010 4:13am Aug 15, 2010 4:13am
what can u see?http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=25ga2wz&s=4http://img683.imageshack.us/i/32256765.gif/
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  • #282,099
  • Aug 15, 2010 7:01am Aug 15, 2010 7:01am
Can anyone advice/refer me where can I download Forex rate and interest rate Historical Data. Thanks
  • #282,100
  • Aug 15, 2010 9:16am Aug 15, 2010 9:16am
Quoting JohnnyC0404
I have no affiliation with freestockcharts or any other pay per click on my site. ............
Due diligence my friend.
How do we know that.

But even so what is the purpose of posting your trading record which we also have to take you at your word about?

And before you say it, you are aware of a little program called photoshop. Not saying your post is not 100% legit. Just there is no way for us to know one way or the other.
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