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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,261
  • Aug 14, 2010 8:55am Aug 14, 2010 8:55am
Cable: COT
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  • #4,262
  • Aug 14, 2010 9:02am Aug 14, 2010 9:02am
Aussie,

Note the association between COT index extreme and reversal/deep correction
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  • #4,263
  • Aug 14, 2010 9:09am Aug 14, 2010 9:09am
Swissy
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  • #4,264
  • Edited 12:08pm Aug 14, 2010 12:07pm | Edited 12:08pm
Hi Shahab,

Can you interpret the above COT's please for beginers like me.

Does it mean that as AUD has reached its extreme of 100 it will be moving down what about the net increase in Longs from last week from 48k to 54k isn't that positive meaning more AUD gains ? I am confused.

Also positive cable of 5k with COT at 100 means more cable gains ?

Thanks in advance

Shane
  • #4,265
  • Aug 14, 2010 12:33pm Aug 14, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting Msa
Despite the big drop in the week, the commercial traders keep adding shorts and the large traders keep buying.

The small trader that usually are on the wrong side on the tops and bottoms still have some ground until became heavy buyers.


Maybe we can see some correction on this week moviment before a real drop on EURUSD and GBPUSD

http://www.timingcharts.com/getchart...b4c65c6ebb9d61
Regarding the big drop, the COT-numbers released on Friday don't include the action from Tuesday or later.
  • #4,266
  • Edited 4:17pm Aug 14, 2010 4:06pm | Edited 4:17pm
That's right Rush.

Like any other indicator it have some lagging.

However it's a weekly indicator. 3 days lagging on a 3 month trend doesn't change so much the perspective of the data.

I do think that in the medium term we will see more downside and i'm not buying any upside movement right now. I'm just making a short term guess.

Anyway it's just my opinion. Nothing sure about that.
  • #4,267
  • Aug 15, 2010 6:38am Aug 15, 2010 6:38am
Quoting SanMiguel
PRZ?
Only issue I can see is that if, for example, you enter at the 38.2 with SL at 50, then why not enter at 50, it's also a resistance.
ENter at 50, your SL is at 61.8 but if that's gets stopped out then do you also enter off 61.8? It could get nasty very quickly better to wait for a bias change but then you miss the fib level entry.
Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ)
you should determine the important level (suit cluster ) in which there is high probability of reversal and then set the stop loss right after next fib level, if market hit the stop maybe its better to set aside , but its all on you and your system.
good luck
  • #4,268
  • Aug 16, 2010 10:25am Aug 16, 2010 10:25am
AUDUSD15
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/3l...0g2plcqhik.gif
  • #4,269
  • Aug 17, 2010 7:45am Aug 17, 2010 7:45am
AUDCAD240

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/ia...7eiotse3jy.jpg
  • #4,270
  • Aug 17, 2010 1:32pm Aug 17, 2010 1:32pm
Blackstone - It looks more bullish to me.
May the pip flow with you
  • #4,271
  • Aug 18, 2010 3:39am Aug 18, 2010 3:39am
Quoting BlackStone
USDCAD240
USDCAD
i think 1.0250 could give us few pips
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/81...t8z1vdjgvd.gif
  • #4,272
  • Aug 18, 2010 3:53am Aug 18, 2010 3:53am
Quoting Flow
Blackstone - It looks more bullish to me.
let see could it break the neckline
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  • #4,273
  • Aug 18, 2010 2:02pm Aug 18, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting shahab8b
Swissy
Hi Shahab,

In your Swissy chart you mention that an ascending broadening formation has a 66% probability of breaking out downward. Where did you get this statistic from, if you don't mind me asking? Proprietary research, or some public source?

Thanks!
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #4,274
  • Aug 18, 2010 5:43pm Aug 18, 2010 5:43pm
Quoting shahab8b
Swissy
can someone what is the platform in the picture？？？？
  • #4,275
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:11am Aug 19, 2010 1:11am
Quoting Dhb
Hi Shahab,

In your Swissy chart you mention that an ascending broadening formation has a 66% probability of breaking out downward. Where did you get this statistic from, if you don't mind me asking? Proprietary research, or some public source?

Thanks!
hi DHb
i look for Shahab's answer too but till then i think below link could help you
http://thepatternsite.com/rabfa.html

Bulkowski's books are full of statistics which give you better view of patterns
  • #4,276
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:39am Aug 19, 2010 1:39am
CADYEN60
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  • #4,277
  • Aug 19, 2010 1:58am Aug 19, 2010 1:58am
Quoting lucas101
can someone what is the platform in the picture？？？？
belong to timingcharts site
http://timingcharts.com/index.php
  • #4,278
  • Aug 19, 2010 2:38am Aug 19, 2010 2:38am
maybe...?
EURUSD240
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/t9...vwazmmfxzb.gif
  • #4,279
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:17am Aug 19, 2010 7:17am
Quoting BlackStone
USDCAD
i think 1.0250 could give us few pips
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/81...t8z1vdjgvd.gif
nice reaction
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/i7...vi5pfhgikc.gif
  • #4,280
  • Aug 19, 2010 7:24am Aug 19, 2010 7:24am
Quoting BlackStone
nice reaction

Hi,
Nice call on U/Cad well done, how did you get 1.0250 ? I've got 1.0280 on my chart and traded that, your 1.0205 was impressively accurate.
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