Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Could you possibly explain how you traded this one as an entry?
I know last week when we put the charts up, the 61.8% fib was lower, turns out the market was looking at a different 61.8.
Do you just leave your entry at the 61.8 or do you wait for a bias change on the 1hr charts?

E/U : Update

U/J as expected

Hi Shahab8b
Great charts and opinions
have a question,
in your opinion would the cable now continue its bearish trend since Jul 09 after this retrace back up to 1.6

thanks

Hi sir
r u still using cot report if yer where can i get cot report?

You can find the COT reports here

The CME report contains currencies. Did you read the first post of this thread? Imho, it's required background info if you want to interpret the data correctly. Like the way the currencies are denominated (e.g. long yen in "COT speak" = long JPYUSD, so actually short USDJPY).

thank u sir so wat particular report is for fx sir

for example u have the report below wat willl be the trading plan

BRITISH POUND STERLING - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-096742
Commitments of Traders with Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined, August 3, 2010
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Total : Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Positions
: Open : Non-Commercial : Commercial : Total :
: Interest : Long : Short : Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : (CONTRACTS OF GBP 62,500) :
: : :
All : 167,114: 23,263 31,740 21,101 100,453 84,892 144,818 137,732: 22,296 29,381
Old : 167,114: 23,263 31,740 21,101 100,453 84,892 144,818 137,732: 22,296 29,381
Other: 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0: 0 0
: : :
: : Changes in Commitments from: July 27, 2010 :
: 23,764: 7,878 -5,251 9,134 1,877 19,991 18,888 23,875: 4,875 -111
: : :
: : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
All : 100.0: 13.9 19.0 12.6 60.1 50.8 86.7 82.4: 13.3 17.6
Old : 100.0: 13.9 19.0 12.6 60.1 50.8 86.7 82.4: 13.3 17.6
Other: 100.0: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0: 0.0 0.0
: : :
:# Traders : Number of Traders in Each Category :
All : 91: 23 31 22 21 29 56 70:
Old : 91: 23 31 22 21 29 56 70:
Other: 0: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Percent of Open Interest Held by the Indicated Number of the Largest Traders
: By Gross Position By Net Position
: 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders
: Long: Short Long Short: Long Short Long Short
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All : 37.2 36.5 51.1 45.9 35.6 35.1 47.7 43.8
Old : 37.2 36.5 51.1 45.9 35.6 35.1 47.7 43.8
Other: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Fxrambo,

The major currency pairs are to be found in the CME COT report.



Now, let's take the yen overview as an example. As you (should) know, the COT report uses the XXX/USD format for currency pairs, so if the COT says non-commercials have taken more longs than shorts in Japanese yen, it means more longs than shorts in JPY/USD, which is equivalent to more shorts than longs in USD/JPY, which is the pair we all trade.

If we look at the JPY COT report of this week, we see that non-commercials, so the big hedge funds, investment banks, asset managers, etc., have taken way more long positions than shorts, so the big speculators are betting USD/JPY is going to go down (remember, long JPY/USD = short USD/JPY), while only a few are thinking U/J will go up.



How do we use this info? Well, that's up to you to decide. If you're scalping the 1 minute charts, the COT report will probably not be of much help to you, since most of the institutional guys don't even look below H1, or so I'm told. The weak spot of the COT report is that you don't know what time frame these traders had in mind when they entered their positions. Is their view short term, or long term? What one person thinks of as short term, could well be long term in the eyes of another trader. So you still have to guess...

Wow thank u sir u really opened my eyes.thanx for ua help sir.

AUDUSD60

nice!

Aren't harmonics, especially ABCD, only supposed to operate from the 61.8% retracement? This chart looks like the ABCD is connected at random points.

Any thoughts? Thanks

Hi Shahab8b ... what do you think about this AB=CD pattern on the weekley GBP/USD ? we just had a bounce off the 0.618 retracement and i think we may go down until the 1.27 level we would also be resistance area from Feb 2009.

hi SanMiguel
i dont think so. in ABCD pattern, retracement (BC) could be 38.2,50,62,78... but 62 is the ideal one which i myself really like it, but the rest of them are important too and you could count on. the projection could be 1 ,1,27,1.618.....
i look for Clusters of fib levels and S$R and in illustrated zone we had variety of fib levels and S$R which in my view that is enough for taking some pips.
by the way there are two separate patterns in EURCAD chart, Reciprocal with new fibo levels which is mentioned in Carney's new book ( Harmonic trading volume two) and extended ABCD ( 1.27 AB=CD) .therefore i did not connect them by force or randomly.

Thanks for the info.
How do you decide to enter off the fib levels?
I can see how the ABCD can help with the extension but we have to let it confirm the fib level first before we know that the fib is definitely actinf as support/resistance don't we?

its depends on the way you trade and your system, some trader wait for canldesticks confirmations or trend line breaking ,MAs ..... and some others use pending orders in PRZ or cluster zone, i use the latter often.
in Trade What You See (Larry pesavento and Leslie Jouflas) author introduce the second way, you should set your pending order in PRZ (D) and your stop loss is on the next fib level.
or you could enter market after confirmation and it could be more dependable, but most of the time you lose big moves. so pending orders could save you with better risk reward, at least i think so.

http://i36.tinypic.com/6px55t.png

PRZ?
Only issue I can see is that if, for example, you enter at the 38.2 with SL at 50, then why not enter at 50, it's also a resistance.
ENter at 50, your SL is at 61.8 but if that's gets stopped out then do you also enter off 61.8? It could get nasty very quickly better to wait for a bias change but then you miss the fib level entry.

Despite the big drop in the week, the commercial traders keep adding shorts and the large traders keep buying.

The small trader that usually are on the wrong side on the tops and bottoms still have some ground until became heavy buyers.


Maybe we can see some correction on this week moviment before a real drop on EURUSD and GBPUSD

http://www.timingcharts.com/getchart...b4c65c6ebb9d61