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  • #281,181
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:44pm Aug 12, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting Crassius
News is what is needed. We're in equilibrium around the 200 MA on the 4 hr waiting for some reason to move in which direction.

Funny thing about news is not what it is or what it's predicted to be, its what the market interprets it to be....

I don't know what the news will be, and more importantly I don't know how it will interpreted, but I do know a definitive break of that 1.2777 38.2% Fib will either be another leg down, or a short lived probe down and then back above it.

My reasoning is I can set a sell order here with a tight stop out...

So if you don't trust your setup will you adjust your position accordingly?
  • #281,182
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:01pm Aug 12, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting jackdan
Well there was a very good reason for the euro to drop to 1.18, was the debt problem, more likely piigs, greece on top. Once the EMU sorted the problem of financing the debt, no bad reason to go high again. Now, i personally wonder why is the us$ so strong, when a state like california, one of the 10ths first economy of the world, comparable to germany, is in state of emergency because of it's debt. Also Europe is not involved in 2 blood sucking wars. And not maintaining the "order" around the world. Yes, europe has expensive social systems, and...

California (GSP) $1.85 trillion, which is 13% of the United States (GDP) and Germany GDP is $3.35 trillion.
  • #281,183
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:07pm Aug 12, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting mfoste1
The monthly pivot @ 2779 right were we bounced.......i have that as a pretty big number in my math....its a big mid.....math says once we cross it next 2215
i dont rule out bouncing to 2918...just from an old tl.. but math gave me something to watch for..#1 2992.5 M 2886
#2 3092.6 M 2936
a new low will cancel this.. 2992.5 is fitting the glove atm
im not gonna get caught with my pants down.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #281,184
  • Edited 4:08pm Aug 12, 2010 4:07pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting Larseg
So if you don't trust your setup will you adjust your position accordingly?
Not sure what you mean. I trust the setup, I just realize we are at an inflection point. Hence the tight stop.

I'm in short on a definitive break of 1.2777 38.2% Fib with a tight stop out, not a stop and reverse.

I have no definitive ideas at this moment other than that... I'll have to see what the chart looks like then. We'll have a much clearer picture after Euro data comes in Friday morning. Till then chop.

But I wouldn't be surprised if the data is taken lacklusterly being a Friday, and traders being hesitant at the inflection point we are at to put on some serious positions going into the weekend, especially with bad news dribbling out regardiing Greece the last 30 hours or so.
  • #281,185
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:12pm Aug 12, 2010 4:12pm
Hm hm, does it look like a fake breakout try to downside?
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #281,186
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:18pm Aug 12, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
i dont rule out bouncing to 2918...just from an old tl.. but math gave me something to watch for..#1 2992.5 M 2886
#2 3092.6 M 2936
a new low will cancel this.. 2992.5 is fitting the glove atm
im not gonna get caught with my pants down.

I have those numbers as well, but more notably 2886, 2918.....it we could somehow get a bounce to 3092-5 that would be excellent, thats a huge energy spot. I highly doubt we go there with data coming out tomorrow, who knows it could be good.....
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  • #281,187
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:22pm Aug 12, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting mfoste1
I have those numbers as well, but more notably 2886, 2918.....it we could somehow get a bounce to 3092-5 that would be excellent, thats a huge energy spot. I highly doubt we go there with data coming out tomorrow, who knows it could be good.....
yeah they are big for a #1 and 2.. but they shouldn't be igonred. if we get a little upper movement.. remember mids rarely are not reached.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #281,188
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:24pm Aug 12, 2010 4:24pm
i still can't wait for football season. 2818 seems to be tough..the initial break was good though on 15M...i'm flat now on this one just holding the uj long again..above BE now(you did have me lost on the football metaphor for 2818 though man). lol
  • #281,189
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:29pm Aug 12, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting Z3iz3i
Hm hm, does it look like a fake breakout try to downside?

When we are in equilibrium... directionless looking for signposts as to where we go next, it wouldn't surprise me if it takes more than one run at the 38.2% Fib if it gets broken in a lackluster way.

If there is solid movement accelerating into it, it's not coming back.

I look for entries above or below key Fib breakouts that if they fail, can be stopped out of fairly tight. If we move back into this zone of indecision, we'll have to wait for something to tip the balance one way or the other, so why stay in the position? Stop out, accept the small loss and reset or re evaluate.

I trade the 4 hr chart, (when I am disciplined and not fucking around) with the daily as my higher time frame. Most people here are trading much smaller moves on smaller time frames. You pick what you are comfortable with. On the 4 HR I'm bearish because we are below the 200 period MA, and we failed to break the 200 MA on the daily.
  • #281,190
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:31pm Aug 12, 2010 4:31pm
its not that i want it. but it cant be ignored.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #281,191
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:37pm Aug 12, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting uraceulose
2949, 2950ish or 3000...what's it gonna be? or the red TL lets go and we head to S1 edit:2983 too
Attachment
the second one should have been 2980ish..(my short @ 2949 wasn't triggered) now 2880,2950, 3000. mine obviously didn't change much with the new little drop...pivot points as always. longer pivots weekly/monthly are seemingly more important lately imo...i'll still enter mostly on dailys. we should open close to todays pp
  • #281,192
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:10pm Aug 12, 2010 5:10pm
had a beer with a friend and only now i got home.

my day was good: 300 pips are certain. 4 shorts rolling 90 pips now but with sl at -20. waiting to break 20 to put sl at be.

enjoy!

Quoting Lorna
Cheers dear, I really like it when I get a reply - any reply. Makes me feel part of the 'team'.

You're right, it wasn't a good end of day before rollover. However I could have lost nearly 60 pips (points/whatevers) but instead I copped for 11.95. Not at all brilliant but I lived to continue trading and learning for another day. Hope your day was better :-)
dreams do come true.
  • #281,193
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:14pm Aug 12, 2010 5:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
i dont rule out bouncing to 2918...just from an old tl.. but math gave me something to watch for..#1 2992.5 M 2886
#2 3092.6 M 2936
a new low will cancel this.. 2992.5 is fitting the glove atm
im not gonna get caught with my pants down.
Hi Gatorlina, is Math a sort of trading tool / software package ??? Think I saw some mention of it on the Pro side of FXStreet.com - I was looking into that site but it lags about an hour behind with its info, so any good info it has to offer is way too late.

Am I with you in your morning again :-) ??
  • #281,194
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:17pm Aug 12, 2010 5:17pm
Good to see u here, Master!

that 3rd high volume bar was high volume because of the news at that time. numbers were bad of the $ yet we saw a lot of long absortion there. bulls wanted to take over yet bears held them down and bull come up very slowly. on a 30 minute chart we see what seems to me as short accumulation letting price rise a little... just a view and could be wishfull thinking or biased since i am short now.

so that 3rd could be deceiving as it incorporates news. or not?

anyway if i do see a low vol down bar being reject i will come out of the shorts and buy.

let's c whaat mr. market brings us there.

hapipipin

Quoting malcolmb14
Attachment
dreams do come true.
  • #281,195
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:17pm Aug 12, 2010 5:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
its not that i want it. but it cant be ignored.
gator, waht was the tf of the chart you posted here??

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=281220

My hourly chart shows price is now out of the downtrend channel - more like fizzled due to lack of volume... the 4hour below that shows a hammer formed at the bottom of the downtrend channel... i'm thinking we may start to shoot back up from here - obviously waiting for confirmation.. i don't deny we may test 2800 again or even break through it...

Also RSI on 4hr is just cropping back up above 30
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  • #281,196
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:18pm Aug 12, 2010 5:18pm
is that resting of beaten down?


Quoting Blicas
Hi Wannaberich,
What do you think about this?
dreams do come true.
  • #281,197
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:19pm Aug 12, 2010 5:19pm
Murrey Math

Quoting Lorna
Hi Gatorlina, is Math a sort of trading tool / software package ??? Think I saw some mention of it on the Pro side of FXStreet.com - I was looking into that site but it lags about an hour behind with its info, so any good info it has to offer is way too late.

Am I with you in your morning again :-) ??
Follow the Trend, thats all
  • #281,198
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:20pm Aug 12, 2010 5:20pm
if she does break further down - i have 2680-2700 as a target before possible bounce back up to 3000.. closing wedge - i think i might have posted this one before...
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  • #281,199
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:21pm Aug 12, 2010 5:21pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67A4M420100812
  • #281,200
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:24pm Aug 12, 2010 5:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
atm #9 missed by 3pips
#11 28145
#12 2703
#13 26369
#14 25246
#15 2514
the closer # the more the congestion.
done..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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