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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,601
  • Aug 12, 2010 2:04am Aug 12, 2010 2:04am
Quoting Astroman
Even if this trade turns out to be a loser I will not have any heartache over it...I think my entry ( 85.18 ) is good and I have no regrets.

I only have a very small position and I am quit prepared to ride this trade out for the long run. I will tery to forget about this trade but this might be hard to do. My barriers are already up as far as T.P. and S.L. goes and I think I have picked good levels.

In my opinion this pair has way to much upside potential to ignore so I will ad 1 Mini-Lot for every 50 Pips or so. My S.L. on my original entry...
looks good so far, PA above last weeks high and above the lows of 12/09 and 01/10 (87.10) would give some confirmation, success!

W:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,602
  • Aug 12, 2010 2:20am Aug 12, 2010 2:20am
.
I think fundamental factors will give a big influance now.. BOJ seems already give a signal.

now, trend in hourly chart is changing, i wait the 4hourly and daily chart to change as well..
if it can break 86,5x it will be a big chance to move up..
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,603
  • Aug 12, 2010 2:23am Aug 12, 2010 2:23am
Quoting Deanchain
.
I think fundamental factors will give a big influance now.. BOJ seems already give a signal.

now, trend in hourly chart is changing, i wait the 4hourly and daily chart to change as well..
if it can break 86,5x it will be a big chance to move up..
What fundamental factors you see Deanchain?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,604
  • Aug 12, 2010 2:32am Aug 12, 2010 2:32am
Quoting USD-Bear
What fundamental factors you see Deanchain?
read this...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-declines.html

maybe this is the time to reverse trend?
... or just short reaction...??
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,605
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:29am Aug 12, 2010 3:29am
Quoting Deanchain
read this...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-declines.html

maybe this is the time to reverse trend?
... or just short reaction...??
Who knows?
Quit frankly I do not see a change in fundamentals.
Yes, exports are hurt with levels beneath 90.00 but will that change the trend?
In can see a fundamental change if global economy is recovering, interest rates in the US are sky rocketing and inflation fights becomes the main issue.
Although I can see that happening in the coming years it will not be an issue in coming months.
The Baltic Dry Index though (freight prices and a good indicator for future economic trends) is indicating a little improvement, which is hopeful.
Personally I just feel its just to obvious to go long now and would like to see a shake-out of longs first, but who am I....

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,606
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:33am Aug 12, 2010 3:33am
Aug 12 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda will hold a news conference from 5:30 p.m. (0830 GMT) on Thursday, the ministry said.

It did not give a reason for the news conference.

The Bank of Japan checked dollar/yen rates with banks in the foreign exchange market on Thursday in a way that went beyond its usual contact with them, market sources said.

Earlier on Thursday, the dollar quickly rose about 30 pips to around 85.40 yen.

It was steady on the day at 85.35 yen JPY=, having pulled up from a 15-year low of 84.72 yen hit on trading platform EBS on Wednesday.

Source
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,607
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:35am Aug 12, 2010 3:35am
Can someone confirm the time of the news conference above.....am I right in thinking that it's about 1 hour from now??

Or is it about 13 hours from now??

Just working it out....it was 1 hour ago wasn't it????
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,608
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:41am Aug 12, 2010 3:41am
Wasn't 8.30 GMT 10 minutes ago?
  • #17,609
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:42am Aug 12, 2010 3:42am
Quoting realjumper
Can someone confirm the time of the news conference above.....am I right in thinking that it's about 1 hour from now??

Or is it about 13 hours from now??

Just working it out....it was 1 hour ago wasn't it????
5:30 Japan time is 08:30 GMt. The conference should have started 11 minutes back.
Thats why the sudden 40 pip drop?
  • #17,610
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:42am Aug 12, 2010 3:42am
Quoting Rush
Wasn't 8.30 GMT 10 minutes ago?
YEAH!! It was...thanks very much. So this news conference must be going on right now......this might be some large verbal intervention.....or not.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,611
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:44am Aug 12, 2010 3:44am
Quoting PipMaxzz
5:30 Japan time is 08:30 GMt. The conference should have started 11 minutes back.
Thats why the sudden 40 pip drop?
maybe....e/j dropped too and cable, fibre, kiwi, aussie
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,612
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:47am Aug 12, 2010 3:47am
Quoting realjumper
Can someone confirm the time of the news conference above.....am I right in thinking that it's about 1 hour from now??

Or is it about 13 hours from now??

Just working it out....it was 1 hour ago wasn't it????
It was 15 min ago.
  • #17,613
  • Aug 12, 2010 3:48am Aug 12, 2010 3:48am
http://www.forexlive.com/125049/all/...x-intervention
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,614
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:01am Aug 12, 2010 4:01am
Quoting realjumper
http://www.forexlive.com/125049/all/...x-intervention
It would be interesting to know what his 'No Comment about fx intervention" really means wouldn't it?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,615
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:15am Aug 12, 2010 4:15am
Japan govt official: yen rise could call for steps
reuters.com - submitted 7 min ago


Japan PM decries sudden yen gains as 'rough'
reuters.com - submitted 8 min ago



Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,616
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:23am Aug 12, 2010 4:23am
Quoting realjumper
It would be interesting to know what his 'No Comment about fx intervention" really means wouldn't it?
I beleive they do not want to intervene, but want the market to know that they take it serious. Raising Yen is hurting Jap economy and also rest of Asia. with silence he implied 'if you go long on Yen, you will burn yourself' hmmm....
  • #17,617
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:28am Aug 12, 2010 4:28am
Quoting PipMaxzz
I beleive they do not want to intervene, but want the market to know that they take it serious. Raising Yen is hurting Jap economy and also rest of Asia. with silence he implied 'if you go long on Yen, you will burn yourself' hmmm....
I'm sure they don't want to intervene, but with their mutterings about 'the high yen could de-rail the fragile recovery' etc etc.....then hold a special news conference which amounted to "No Comment"......rumour and speculation might be even more harmful.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,618
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:34am Aug 12, 2010 4:34am
Quoting realjumper
I'm sure they don't want to intervene, but with their mutterings about 'the high yen could de-rail the fragile recovery' etc etc.....then hold a special news conference which amounted to "No Comment"......rumour and speculation might be even more harmful.
Anyways UJ downside risk is lower. I am long from 85.25 with 100 SL
  • #17,619
  • Aug 12, 2010 4:52am Aug 12, 2010 4:52am
Quoting realjumper
It would be interesting to know what his 'No Comment about fx intervention" really means wouldn't it?
I think they wouldn't tell intervention clearly, because they know there are a lot of sepeculator...
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,620
  • Aug 12, 2010 5:28am Aug 12, 2010 5:28am
Quoting PipMaxzz
Anyways UJ downside risk is lower. I am long from 85.25 with 100 SL
Hi.
I agree with u.Today will see 86.23
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