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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,581
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:36am Aug 11, 2010 7:36am
US Trade Balance -49.9b ...... and the hits just keep on coming....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,582
  • Aug 11, 2010 7:39am Aug 11, 2010 7:39am
Quoting realjumper
US Trade Balance -49.9b ...... and the hits just keep on coming....

hehehe
  • #17,583
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:01am Aug 11, 2010 8:01am
Quoting realjumper
If it goes to to 80, it could go t0 78....76....74.....stranger things have happened. I don't need that kind of drawdown!
haha. japan's national debt is at 180% of its gdp. if it goes to 80 or below, they'll have a real hard time servicing debts
  • #17,584
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:05am Aug 11, 2010 8:05am
Quoting Geelong_Cats
haha. japan's national debt is at 180% of its gdp. if it goes to 80 or below, they'll have a real hard time servicing debts
But what can they do about it?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,585
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:09am Aug 11, 2010 8:09am
Quoting realjumper
But what can they do about it?
print more yen?
  • #17,586
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:10am Aug 11, 2010 8:10am
Quoting Geelong_Cats
print more yen?
Bail out from China?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,587
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:12am Aug 11, 2010 8:12am
Quoting Geelong_Cats
haha. japan's national debt is at 180% of its gdp. if it goes to 80 or below, they'll have a real hard time servicing debts
That is a dynamic one should consider over the long term. As a stronger yen equates to less exports, meaning weaker GDP, lower current account surplus (or an eventual deficit?), less tax revenues, higher long term borrowing costs, greater debt burden etc...

But are most people on this forum long term position traders or merely hopeful scavengers, bottom pickers hoping to catch a bounce?

Yes, Japan's public sector debt to GDP is awful, but the important point to remember is that they, unlike the UK or the US, are a surplus nation, meaning they can, in theory, currently service this debt burden entirely from domestic savers and are not reliant on foreigners to buy their paper.
  • #17,588
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:16am Aug 11, 2010 8:16am
Quoting realjumper
But what can they do about it?
In theory, they could electronically create unlimited amounts of yen and dump this new money on the foreign exchange markets, as they purchase overseas currencies.

In reality, of course, this sort of unilateral action would be a politically sensitive move that would cause great anger with other G7 governments, hence the reason why they (Japanese officials) have stuck with verbal intervention up until now.
  • #17,589
  • Aug 11, 2010 8:45am Aug 11, 2010 8:45am
All we need now is another "fat finger" incident With the new controls they have in the US equity markets now, that would probably get knocked on the head before it has time to really get rolling.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,590
  • Aug 11, 2010 9:44am Aug 11, 2010 9:44am
Intervention?? That was quick and fast! Hope it keeps going!
  • #17,591
  • Aug 11, 2010 9:53am Aug 11, 2010 9:53am
Quoting wontfindanam
Intervention?? That was quick and fast! Hope it keeps going!
No just USD strength:

Attached Image
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,592
  • Aug 11, 2010 9:55am Aug 11, 2010 9:55am
Quoting wontfindanam
Intervention?? That was quick and fast! Hope it keeps going!
Whenever I see something strange, I usually look to this website. They seem to have their finger on the pulse. With equity markets printing new lows for today, U/J takes off? Yep, something strange is happening.


USD/JPY recovery accelerates; notable buyer seen

USD/JPY up at 85.45 at writing, the rally accelerating with a large US custodial seen aggressive buyer in recent trade. Earlier was getting reports of sell orders at 85.50.

http://www.forexlive.com/category/all
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,593
  • Aug 11, 2010 11:18am Aug 11, 2010 11:18am
gone below 84.70 .... prelude to something ...?

anyway ... very tired ... no more brain juice ....hitting the sack ... yawn ...
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  • #17,594
  • Aug 11, 2010 2:23pm Aug 11, 2010 2:23pm
Quoting Deanchain
Im waiting for long tail candle.... especially in daily chart,,,
It could be the reversal trend...
i gotta say IF IF IF this DAILY bar closes as a pin this big.( i mean if the tail is out in space like it is now and the close is within yesterdays low) I will long on the break with full bar stop loss

edit: i have lost 130 pips this week longing this pair already just to be clear
  • #17,595
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:42pm Aug 11, 2010 6:42pm
long entry
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  • #17,596
  • Aug 11, 2010 6:57pm Aug 11, 2010 6:57pm
Further dowside is still possible.......so I'm waiting......
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,597
  • Aug 12, 2010 12:00am Aug 12, 2010 12:00am
40 + Pip move in less than 5 minutes to the upside. Strongest move I have seen in a while barring USD news related moves.

Not that any downside potential is unwarranted but I am still putting my money on the Longs.

The trade has not worked out as I wanted it to or how I thought it would but I I aint hurting either. Thought the pair had no where but up to go and in doing so would achieve that very quickly. That has not panned out but my S.L. has held up fine and I am still alive and not even hurten.

Sure this Pair could drop significantly in the near future.....all in all.....I am Long at this point.
  • #17,598
  • Aug 12, 2010 12:36am Aug 12, 2010 12:36am
Quoting Astroman
Thought the pair had no where but up to go...

That's never the case. ;-)

Long myself as well though, I think we'll see some upside here. GLTY Double bottom on the daily is worth a shot IMO.
  • #17,599
  • Aug 12, 2010 12:43am Aug 12, 2010 12:43am
Quoting Astroman
40 + Pip move in less than 5 minutes to the upside. Strongest move I have seen in a while barring USD news related moves.

Not that any downside potential is unwarranted but I am still putting my money on the Longs.

The trade has not worked out as I wanted it to or how I thought it would but I I aint hurting either. Thought the pair had no where but up to go and in doing so would achieve that very quickly. That has not panned out but my S.L. has held up fine and I am still alive and not even hurten.

[b]Sure this Pair could drop significantly...
The upcoming US Employment claims might do that if they are bad
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,600
  • Aug 12, 2010 1:27am Aug 12, 2010 1:27am
Quoting AllDayIrish

Long myself as well though, I think we'll see some upside here. GLTY Double bottom on the daily is worth a shot IMO.
Even if this trade turns out to be a loser I will not have any heartache over it...I think my entry ( 85.18 ) is good and I have no regrets.

I only have a very small position and I am quit prepared to ride this trade out for the long run. I will tery to forget about this trade but this might be hard to do. My barriers are already up as far as T.P. and S.L. goes and I think I have picked good levels.

In my opinion this pair has way to much upside potential to ignore so I will ad 1 Mini-Lot for every 50 Pips or so. My S.L. on my original entry will not change until I see a 100+ move but for the additional positions that I add on I will keep a very tight T.P. and S.L. on them.

Yet again it could move down then in that case please ignore the above.
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