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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,541
  • Aug 10, 2010 12:32am Aug 10, 2010 12:32am
Quoting blue_z_zz
china still buying JGB

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE67802Z20100809

China has always wanted to own Japan
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,542
  • Aug 10, 2010 3:30am Aug 10, 2010 3:30am
Quoting realjumper
Yeah, I've really got no solid foundation to be saying this, and I'm definately not trading it, but cable might be carving out a top here, and fibre too. At the same time uj is carving out a bottom!! The commom denominator is the greenback.....so I'm watching USD Index quite closely.
Current strength of USD (USD-Index, GU, EU) is not projected into UJ.
So J is getting stronger.
Implication: as soon as USD-Index tops we could see a drop in UJ
Any sense in this argument?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,543
  • Aug 10, 2010 3:43am Aug 10, 2010 3:43am
Quoting USD-Bear
Current strength of USD (USD-Index, GU, EU) is not projected into UJ.
So J is getting stronger.
Implication: as soon as USD-Index tops we could see a drop in UJ
Any sense in this argument?
Not sure I follow you there. My thinking is that as UDX rises, so the greenback becomes stronger and therefore more attractive to investors.....who will pull money from the Yen, Euro and Pound to invest in the $US, seeing as the greenback is the reserve currency and speculators who 'get in early' could make a nice profit.

You may be right, this is a bit of a learning curve for me.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,544
  • Aug 10, 2010 4:01am Aug 10, 2010 4:01am
Quoting realjumper
Not sure I follow you there. My thinking is that as UDX rises, so the greenback becomes stronger and therefore more attractive to investors.....who will pull money from the Yen, Euro and Pound to invest in the $US, seeing as the greenback is the reserve currency and speculators who 'get in early' could make a nice profit.

You may be right, this is a bit of a learning curve for me.
Kind of reasoning is following:
Strength/weakness of USD and Yen defines UJ level.
USD is strengthening.
Other factors remaining the same this should lead to a rise of UJ.
Recently UJ remains stable so YEN is strengthening too which is not very clear looking at UJ because of strength USD.
With current extremely low interest rates in US and negative comparison of economic recovery US versus the rest I can't see strength of USD to be lasting, so if that factor disappears we are left with a strong Yen eg a falling UJ.
Maybe its just trying to find arguments whats in my mind, which is often the case
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,545
  • Aug 10, 2010 4:14am Aug 10, 2010 4:14am
Quoting USD-Bear
Kind of reasoning is following:
Strength/weakness of USD and Yen defines UJ level.
USD is strengthening.
Other factors remaining the same this should lead to a rise of UJ.
Recently UJ remains stable so YEN is strengthening too which is not very clear looking at UJ because of strength USD.
With current extremely low interest rates in US and negative comparison of economic recovery US versus the rest I can't see strength of USD to be lasting, so if that factor disappears we are left with a strong Yen eg a falling UJ.
Maybe its just trying to find...
Yeah I see what you're saying. I agree that if the strength of the USD fades away, punters will seek the Yen as a 'safe haven', which will drive u/j down.

As I've said a couple of times now, Japan is not in very good shape (either), and for sure, they are hating the high Yen. Whether they can withstand an even higher Yen, I somehow doubt.

The fact remains though that USDX is creeping up, so is U/J.....while cable and fibre is dropping. FOMC might turn that around, and it might also accelerate it......it's a coin flip so we shall see.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,546
  • Aug 10, 2010 8:50am Aug 10, 2010 8:50am
Originally Posted by MisterTrader http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
85.35 touched 2 days later than anticpated. Nevertheless, the trend remains your friend. USD/JPY will not move higher. Below 85.00 prints still the target.

Quoting forexstrah
That's a big call mate....
It needs BRASS BALLS for big calls...

My target is still below 85.00. Japanese ministers showed some concern regarding the actual JPY strength, but no talk of interventions.
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,547
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:55am Aug 10, 2010 9:55am
shot at 85.79

target 85.62
Attached Image
  • #17,548
  • Aug 11, 2010 12:47am Aug 11, 2010 12:47am
looks like 85 might fall shortly. It will be interesting to see how far the BOJ are prepared to let this go....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,549
  • Aug 11, 2010 12:55am Aug 11, 2010 12:55am
Word is now that BOJ will not be intervening....
  • #17,550
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:07am Aug 11, 2010 1:07am
Quoting rob1217
Word is now that BOJ will not be intervening....
Doesn't really suprise me....there isn't a hell of a lot they could do about it anyway......SNB learned that intervention can bite you in the ass, and they were in a better position that Japan to do it.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,551
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:10am Aug 11, 2010 1:10am
Quoting TheArcher
shot at 85.79

target 85.62
+ 17pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj11.gif Size: 57 KB
  • #17,552
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:11am Aug 11, 2010 1:11am
This is now the lowest for 15 years for this pair. In 1995 it dropped to 80. Here's an interesting article I found which goes some of the way to explaining what's happening: "The Mysterious Rising Yen" http://www.economist.com/blogs/butto...gold_and_bonds
Gone to a better place
  • #17,553
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:22am Aug 11, 2010 1:22am
Quoting smikester
This is now the lowest for 15 years for this pair. In 1995 it dropped to 80. Here's an interesting article I found which goes some of the way to explaining what's happening: "The Mysterious Rising Yen" http://www.economist.com/blogs/butto...gold_and_bonds
Interesting article....thanks for that. It's more or less in line with what we have been discussing here over the past few days/weeks. The Yen will crash imo.....but when?....who knows! Japan has a window of opportunity to avert the crash....if they make the right moves they will swim....else, the will drown! Hopefully they will swim
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,554
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:26am Aug 11, 2010 1:26am
Quoting realjumper
Interesting article....thanks for that. It's more or less in line with what we have been discussing here over the past few days/weeks. The Yen will crash imo.....but when?....who knows! Japan has a window of opportunity to avert the crash....if they make the right moves they will swim....else, the will drown! Hopefully they will swim
err ... sorry ... wasn't paying attention in class ... what are " the right moves " ?
  • #17,555
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:40am Aug 11, 2010 1:40am
Quoting TheArcher
err ... sorry ... wasn't paying attention in class ... what are " the right moves " ?
Well I'm no economist, but the value of the Yen is the first thing to address.....unemployment.....the aging population.....the high cost of living.....etc etc. All of these can be addressed by exports....and only by exports. So they have to export more, for less cost. They depend on exports so their exports must be cost effective. The high Yen is making that hard. High unemployment and an aging population is compounding the problem. That's not to say that they shouldn't support the elderly or the unemployed, but do they want to drown in welfare payments?

Japan has the motoring (cars and motorcycles) market to itself....at least the lions share anyway. Korea is making moves into that market. UK once had those same markets well and truely sown up, and it slipped away from them. Are they adressing that with gusto?

There's a saying ..... 'If you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always had!'. I'm only seeing Japan doing what it's always done!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,556
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:42am Aug 11, 2010 1:42am
Quoting TheArcher
err ... sorry ... wasn't paying attention in class ... what are " the right moves " ?
Moving Bernanke to Japan, he knows how to kill a currency
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,557
  • Aug 11, 2010 1:46am Aug 11, 2010 1:46am
Quoting USD-Bear
Moving Bernanke to Japan, he knows how to kill a currency
LOL !
  • #17,558
  • Aug 11, 2010 4:07am Aug 11, 2010 4:07am
previous low reach, now some heavy stophunting of longs and we can go long?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,559
  • Aug 11, 2010 4:09am Aug 11, 2010 4:09am
Quoting USD-Bear
previous low reach, now some heavy stophunting of longs and we can go long?
USDJPY will hit my SL will soon HIT 84.40,very very strange after yesterdays news,i think today Soros have shoping minutes
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #17,560
  • Aug 11, 2010 4:12am Aug 11, 2010 4:12am
Quoting USD-Bear
previous low reach, now some heavy stophunting of longs and we can go long?
Be careful man....

"Yen Daily Outlook: Up vs. all despite growing BoJ intervention threats, which no one takes seriously. That the data out of Japan this week has been overall negative is irrelevant, it’s a risk aversion day and that means buy the JPY."

Source
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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