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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,501
  • Aug 9, 2010 5:50am Aug 9, 2010 5:50am
Quoting TheArcher
where ?
on your chart, draw a parallel UTL based on your LTL running from 85.0 to 85.7
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,502
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:08am Aug 9, 2010 7:08am
Quoting USD-Bear
and bear flag
can you plzz explain how to determine a flag and is there a retracment level for its validility thanks
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #17,503
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:10am Aug 9, 2010 7:10am
Quoting blue_z_zz
can you plzz explain how to determine a flag and is there a retracment level for its validility thanks
http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/bearflag.htm
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,504
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:13am Aug 9, 2010 7:13am
Quoting realjumper
http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/bearflag.htm
thanks but i was looking for the explination on the yen chart
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #17,505
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:18am Aug 9, 2010 7:18am
Quoting blue_z_zz
thanks but i was looking for the explination on the yen chart
Oh
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,506
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:19am Aug 9, 2010 7:19am
Quoting realjumper
http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/bearflag.htm
to be honest i never witnested a flag that retraces to 61.8 % of the move so that will be the first to me if it happens goodluck
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #17,507
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:20am Aug 9, 2010 7:20am
Quoting TheArcher
no indis here . which direction ?
Let me post an example and see if I can explain myself clearly. Same currency, two different timeframes. Mmmm, looks like it is trying to go down.

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But what did I see and what did I do? Timeframes are reversed here.


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Does it matter that I used indicators? No. Did I make money? Yes. I can give you examples like this all day long because I short term trade.

l
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,508
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:20am Aug 9, 2010 7:20am
Quoting blue_z_zz
can you plzz explain how to determine a flag and is there a retracment level for its validility thanks
Well move from 86.08 towards 85 (the pole) is the start of a possible bear flag. If we see an ascending trend channel after the pole, the flag is being formed.
It's validity grows when symmetry is more perfect.
As far as I know there is no replacement level to be expected, eg the flag can be small or large.
Once the flag breaks the LTL the bear move starts and the expected target of this move would be break level - length of the pole, in this case appr. 100 pips below break level.

H1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,509
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:24am Aug 9, 2010 7:24am
Quoting USD-Bear
Well move from 86.08 towards 85 (the pole) is the start of a possible bear flag. If we see an ascending trend channel after the pole, the flag is being formed.
It's validity grows when symmetry is more perfect.
As far as I know there is no replacement level to be expected, eg the flag can be small or large.
Once the flag breaks the LTL the bear move starts and the expected target of this move would be break level - length of the pole, in this case appr. 100 pips below break level.

H1:
Attachment
so way do you have a stoploss 8580 if this is you case then i think you should have your stop at 8620 which is the end of the pole that your excuting your trade on
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #17,510
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:24am Aug 9, 2010 7:24am
Quoting blue_z_zz
to be honest i never witnested a flag that retraces to 61.8 % of the move so that will be the first to me if it happens goodluck
Yeah no worries....I thought you were looking for an explanation of what constituted a bear flag
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,511
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:27am Aug 9, 2010 7:27am
what are your views on UJ?

the technical chart show a nice test on fibo 50%, a break above fibo 50level suggest that the down trend is over and should advance to fibo 100 then 161.8(87.3).. as the low of 85.020 is critical support level.

i'm so bullish.. but a break below of that low 85.020 should suggest UJ is finish..be prepare to hedge! target drop ~ 83.5 at least as it is fibo 61.8 extension level
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  • #17,512
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:28am Aug 9, 2010 7:28am
Quoting realjumper
Yeah no worries....I thought you were looking for an explanation of what constituted a bear flag
no i was looking for the expliantion behind his trade to be frank becuase i dont think this is a flag if he based his trade on this flag hes more likly will be stopped but you never know it might work
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #17,513
  • Aug 9, 2010 7:30am Aug 9, 2010 7:30am
Quoting blue_z_zz
no i was looking for the expliantion behind his trade to be frank becuase i dont think this is a flag if he based his trade on this flag hes more likly will be stopped but you never know it might work
Yeah I understand. I don't think it's a valid bear flag either, but as you say, it might work out
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,514
  • Edited 7:51am Aug 9, 2010 7:35am | Edited 7:51am
Quoting blue_z_zz
so way do you have a stoploss 8580 if this is you case then i think you should have your stop at 8620 which is the end of the pole that your excuting your trade on
That's because we have a major descending UTL currently at 85.70 limiting the retracement.
As far as I know the start of the pole of a flag has no meaning in the expectation where the flag will break.

BTW there were more important reasons for the entry:
1. 86% of traders long
2. lot of long stops just below 85.00
3. Descending UTL currently at 85.70
4. Possible bear flag
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,515
  • Aug 9, 2010 8:02am Aug 9, 2010 8:02am
I heard BOJ will have a meeting tomorrow tue and wed...

just becarefull guys...
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,516
  • Aug 9, 2010 8:08am Aug 9, 2010 8:08am
my tp is 86 if it ever reaches there tonite.
  • #17,517
  • Aug 9, 2010 8:20am Aug 9, 2010 8:20am
Quoting USD-Bear
That's because we have a major descending UTL currently at 85.70 limiting the retracement.
As far as I know the start of the pole of a flag has no meaning in the expectation where the flag will break.

BTW there were more important reasons for the entry:
1. 86% of traders long
2. lot of long stops just below 85.00
3. Descending UTL currently at 85.70
4. Possible bear flag
Number of traders long is decreasing though.....not by a hell of lot though I must admit
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,518
  • Aug 9, 2010 8:28am Aug 9, 2010 8:28am
Quoting realjumper
Number of traders long is decreasing though.....not by a hell of lot though I must admit
Yes I see that too, although long term I think trend will change, it's just a little too obvious for me this will happen around previous low at 84.80
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #17,519
  • Aug 9, 2010 8:32am Aug 9, 2010 8:32am
Quoting USD-Bear
Yes I see that too, although long term I think trend will change, it's just a little too obvious for me this will happen around previous low at 84.80
Yeah, I've really got no solid foundation to be saying this, and I'm definately not trading it, but cable might be carving out a top here, and fibre too. At the same time uj is carving out a bottom!! The commom denominator is the greenback.....so I'm watching USD Index quite closely.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,520
  • Aug 9, 2010 8:33am Aug 9, 2010 8:33am
Quoting USD-Bear
That's because we have a major descending UTL currently at 85.70 limiting the retracement.
As far as I know the start of the pole of a flag has no meaning in the expectation where the flag will break.

BTW there were more important reasons for the entry:
1. 86% of traders long
2. lot of long stops just below 85.00
3. Descending UTL currently at 85.70
4. Possible bear flag
from where do you have this info on 86% long usdjpy ist from brokers web sites like fxcm and oanda or from the official COT report from Commodity Futures Trading Commission which clearly states non commercial specultive net long yen
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0612395520100806
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
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