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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,441
  • Aug 7, 2010 8:22am Aug 7, 2010 8:22am
Quoting mfoste1
Man, as a retail trader its extremely difficult to catch a bottom in this pair.....you have no idea of the forces that are at work against you.
so how do we retailers should play this game ?
  • #17,442
  • Aug 7, 2010 8:27am Aug 7, 2010 8:27am
Quoting Patience
The majority of posters on this thread will be going short after capitulating their longs.
call me stupid ... i think i am ... but here's the phrase again ... i can't make out what it means ... simple English will save me from insanity ... help ! ...thank you !
  • #17,443
  • Aug 7, 2010 8:31am Aug 7, 2010 8:31am
Quoting TheArcher
so how do we retailers should play this game ?


Who knows...but here is my plan

I'm putting 1/2 position buy orders @ 80 with 100 pip stop. If my orders get hit, they get hit, if they don't then I didn't lose anything and I will know if BOJ came in or not and I can always enter again if I choose to. If my stops get hit, so be it.....that's all you can do.
  • #17,444
  • Edited 9:15am Aug 7, 2010 8:54am | Edited 9:15am
Quoting Patience
Sure, whatever you want to see. You see bullish, I see bearish. I was just pointing out to another poster when he said there was bullish divergence that there was also hidden bearish divergence. That's all. You will know when the bottom is near. The majority of posters on this thread will be going short after capitulating their longs.


i don't know ... but ... this is how i compared it with ..http://www.babypips.com/school/9_rules.html

i was thinking that your RSI was climbing up from the bottom , below ur 50 level ... while the price was hitting the support ...

in the hidden bearish divergence ,(the blue chart below ) note that the indicator had visited the overbought region ... maybe i am wrong ...

just praying that the price support does not give way if the price hits the support very hard ...hey, it can happen right ...?
Attached Images
  • #17,445
  • Aug 7, 2010 8:59am Aug 7, 2010 8:59am
Quoting mfoste1
Who knows...but here is my plan

I'm putting 1/2 position buy orders @ 80 with 100 pip stop. If my orders get hit, they get hit, if they don't then I didn't lose anything and I will know if BOJ came in or not and I can always enter again if I choose to. If my stops get hit, so be it.....that's all you can do.
thanks for this strategy ... this might mean that i would have to play once a few years to catch the bottom and ride high ...

but i was thinking along a broader picture .. not just this specific case ... but generally , how should we retailers play this game with BigBoys who could blow us out like a candle ... in other words how can we milk this forex thingy successfully ...?
  • #17,446
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:10am Aug 7, 2010 9:10am
Quoting TheArcher
call me stupid ... i think i am ... but here's the phrase again ... i can't make out what it means ... simple English will save me from insanity ... help ! ...thank you !
Do you mean capitulation? It's like throwing in the towel or giving up. Investopedia gives an intellectual explanation here http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp

It is only my opinion that I don't think the market has finished with the downside. It could very well go up, nobody really knows but if I was to choose a side, I'd like to be on the side of the large speculators who are currently long Yen. If your chart is telling you that the long side looks good, then go long. I'm not opposed to seeing some upside, it's just that I think the upside is limited at this stage. I thought the other day that it might have had the power to try for the weekly pivot and/or 87.00 before being slapped down again. It couldn't even get to the weekly pivot.

Here's an explanation for bearish hidden divergence.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bearish hidden.png Size: 233 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,447
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:11am Aug 7, 2010 9:11am
Quoting TheArcher
thanks for this strategy ... this might mean that i would have to play once a few years to catch the bottom and ride high ...

but i was thinking along a broader picture .. not just this specific case ... but generally , how should we retailers play this game with BigBoys who could blow us out like a candle ... in other words how can we milk this forex thingy successfully ...?


for retailers like ourselves , its not about catching tops and bottoms, its about trading with the trend till it changes........leave the tops and bottoms to the market makers.


trying to catch tops and bottoms blows accounts, trend trading grows accounts
  • #17,448
  • Edited 9:40am Aug 7, 2010 9:20am | Edited 9:40am
simply beautiful ... !!

thank you gentlemen !!!

was very enriching and stimulating !!!

... so what is the bottomline ...?

  • #17,449
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:28am Aug 7, 2010 9:28am
Quoting Patience

Here's an explanation for bearish hidden divergence
where did u get this chart ? can u provide the link ? thanks .
  • #17,450
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:38am Aug 7, 2010 9:38am
Quoting mfoste1
its about trading with the trend till it changes


trying to catch tops and bottoms blows accounts, trend trading grows accounts
so, is the current trend continuing or about to change ...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj2.jpg Size: 34 KB
  • #17,451
  • Aug 7, 2010 10:35am Aug 7, 2010 10:35am
Quoting TheArcher
so, is the current trend continuing or about to change ...?
Let me quote Jacko on this:

Quoting jacko
1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.

2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.

3. If you are still confused, print it off and show it to a 5 year old...they will get it right EVERY time...LOL
You should read the entire post (just click on the arrow next to Jacko's name and it will take you to the thread - just in case you didn't know).

Had to do a search for the divergence website address on my old posts as I've saved the examples to my computer (without the website address) but I finally found it http://www.forexproject.com/technica...ivergence.html
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,452
  • Aug 7, 2010 11:00am Aug 7, 2010 11:00am
Quoting TheArcher
so, is the current trend continuing or about to change ...?

lets ask ourselves a few questions.....

1. have we seen any signs that the trend is about to change?

2. where did the price close in relation to the previous swing lows?

3. is price still making lower swing highs?


as patience said, read jacko's thread....jacko is an extremely talented trader. He is proof that if you trade with the trend, you can be wildly successful in this business. I am a big proponent of his strategy......
  • #17,453
  • Aug 7, 2010 6:23pm Aug 7, 2010 6:23pm
Quoting mfoste1
no.....like i said watch for complete capitulation, thats when all the longs will be getting margin calls. Man, as a retail trader its extremely difficult to catch a bottom in this pair.....you have no idea of the forces that are at work against you.
I agree with you up to a point....I mean, generally speaking, trying to grab a top or bottom is a fools game. However, trying to grab the bottom in this particular pair need not damage your account. For instance, I have had 4 attempts at finding the bottom, and the net profit/loss to my account is +110 pips. I would have had my 5th attempt at grabbing the bottom on Friday, and I would have had that trade at be+spread by now. The only reason that I didn't have a go at it is because I hate to trade in and around NFP.

Yes, this is a difficult pair to trade in some aspects.....in others though, it is easier due to this pair not being so prone to wild swings and spikes. I would never try what I'm trying here on (say) cable, because that IS a dangerous game.

I too think that the downside may not be finished, but I will keep going long to catch the bottom (and that's fine if you're sensible). I'm not interested in taking any shorts because intervention, whether verbal or otherwise, is 'on the cards' here, and I see carefully planned longs, with SL to BE as soon as practically possible, as a better probability.

5c
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,454
  • Aug 7, 2010 6:31pm Aug 7, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting Patience
Sure, whatever you want to see. You see bullish, I see bearish. I was just pointing out to another poster when he said there was bullish divergence that there was also hidden bearish divergence. That's all. You will know when the bottom is near. The majority of posters on this thread will be going short after capitulating their longs.
That's one reason why I'm less inclined to pay divergance to much mind. They are open to interpretation too much and are TF dependent...to a certain extent..imo.

You'll notice those Gartley patterns I have posted a couple of here. I am not trading them, just observing at this stage. I have to say though, in the pairs I trade (eu, gu, uj, kiwi and aussie), each of those pairs has had some sort of gartley pattern show up over the past couple of weeks. 4 out of 5 would have been very profitable. So Hasnaa, cotton-i-joe or whatever her/his name was, was quite right about them being reliable....or so it seems at this stage. I don't think I'll change my style because of it though. but for confluence purposes they are handy. Divergence, on the other hand, is not really in my tool box any longer.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,455
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:02pm Aug 7, 2010 9:02pm
Quoting Patience
Had to do a search for the divergence website address on my old posts as I've saved the examples to my computer (without the website address) but I finally found it http://www.forexproject.com/technica...ivergence.html
thanks for ur effort put in to dig out gems !

perhaps the chart below should be the appropriate chart . rise from the deep .. loss of momentum ... need to surface to take in air and push the plank away to get the precious air !
Attached Image
  • #17,456
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:07pm Aug 7, 2010 9:07pm
Quoting mfoste1

1. have we seen any signs that the trend is about to change?
what are the signs to look for ?
  • #17,457
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:13pm Aug 7, 2010 9:13pm
Quoting TheArcher
what are the signs to look for ?

higher highs and higher lows
  • #17,458
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:13pm Aug 7, 2010 9:13pm
Quoting realjumper
are TF dependent.
yes, as per the timeframe in question.

Quoting realjumper

Gartley patterns
my knowledge on this study (harmonics/ gartley) is zero .
  • #17,459
  • Aug 7, 2010 10:11pm Aug 7, 2010 10:11pm
Quoting TheArcher
my knowledge on this study (harmonics/ gartley) is zero .
Mine isn't much better either......that's why I'm just obesrving them at this stage. I'll need to spend a lot of time just watching before I'm going to put too much faith in them. Having said that, the theory is sound and this has been around since the 1930's (I think), so there must be sometihing in it!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,460
  • Aug 7, 2010 11:34pm Aug 7, 2010 11:34pm
Quoting realjumper
That's one reason why I'm less inclined to pay divergance to much mind. They are open to interpretation too much and are TF dependent...to a certain extent..imo.
I know what you mean. Divergence can take forever to play out on longer timeframes but I like divergence and it will always be in my toolbox. I short term trade on A/J using a 15 minute/5 minute chart and RSI/divergence plays quite a big part in my trade entries. I think I'd be a little lost without it. If someone was to say I could only have pivots or RSI for my short term trades, I'd choose RSI all day long.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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