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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,421
  • Aug 7, 2010 2:11am Aug 7, 2010 2:11am
this is getting exciting ....

why the downtrend is coming to an end ....

Quoting 5abi
bullish divergence on most major time frames. monthly weekly, daily.

Is this the bottom, idk but probably a good buy based on r:r.


Quoting realjumper
Also a bullsh butterfly.....lets see what Monday brings
  • #17,422
  • Aug 7, 2010 2:14am Aug 7, 2010 2:14am
how about something from any Elliot Wave practioners .... ?
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  • #17,423
  • Aug 7, 2010 3:30am Aug 7, 2010 3:30am
When so many people think or hope that we are near a bottom, it probably means the bottom is still far away. 85 is definitely not gonna hold. I think we may be here for a while, then go down at least to 79. Intervention is in no rush, Japanese are loading up on yen, no good news from USA. There is no such thing here as double bottom. Back in the spring everyone was bashing the Euro. It's time for a new victim, hello USD.
  • #17,424
  • Aug 7, 2010 4:13am Aug 7, 2010 4:13am
I'm waiting for reverse in the Usd/Jpy, I suppose that buy - trend could start after FOMC statement on 10 august.
  • #17,425
  • Aug 7, 2010 4:24am Aug 7, 2010 4:24am
Quoting BlackStone
really like your patience, Patience
Still alive and kicking I trust all was sorted.

Hmmmmm, large specs increased their long positioning on the Yen according to the latest COT. I was wondering what the numbers would look like because after the last reporting period (Tuesday 27th July), there was a downtrend on Wed 28th, Thur 29th and Fri 30th as well as Tue 3rd.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0612395520100806
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,426
  • Aug 7, 2010 4:34am Aug 7, 2010 4:34am
Quoting TheArcher
this is getting exciting ....

why the downtrend is coming to an end ....
It may not be...the fundamentals don't support an end to the downtrend....that's why I'm waiting. I would prefer to see the fundamentals and TA agreeing wth each other
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,427
  • Aug 7, 2010 7:52am Aug 7, 2010 7:52am
Quoting realjumper
It may not be...the fundamentals don't support an end to the downtrend....that's why I'm waiting. I would prefer to see the fundamentals and TA agreeing wth each other

  • #17,428
  • Aug 7, 2010 8:07am Aug 7, 2010 8:07am
Quoting 5abi
bullish divergence on most major time frames. monthly weekly, daily.

Is this the bottom, idk but probably a good buy based on r:r.
Well that is a matter of perspective.

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Just pulling your leg I like to play devil's advocate sometimes.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,429
  • Aug 7, 2010 8:13am Aug 7, 2010 8:13am
Quoting 5abi
bullish divergence on most major time frames. monthly weekly, daily.

Is this the bottom, idk but probably a good buy based on r:r.

the longer the TF, the more the price can disagree with an indicator.........this can still move a lot further south (ie 80) sure it is a good buy, if your account can handle 500 pips of drawdown.......everyone is trying to catch the true bottom on this pair, do you think short are gonna make it that easy on longs @ 85? i dont think so...........shorts will drive this pair down till most longs are discouraged and doubtful in buying and thats when the true bottom will happen.
  • #17,430
  • Aug 7, 2010 8:20am Aug 7, 2010 8:20am
Quoting mfoste1
shorts will drive this pair down till most longs are discouraged and doubtful in buying and thats when the true bottom will happen.
Amen brother! You preach it. They're just testing the BoJ. Making them sweat a little.

Just like those Jehovah Witnesses that banged on my door the other day telling me the end is nigh. I said but the Yen hasn't reached 80 yet.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,431
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:22am Aug 7, 2010 9:22am
Quoting mfoste1
.shorts will drive this pair down till most longs are discouraged and doubtful in buying and thats when the true bottom will happen.
any way of knowing when , or what indicates(indicators) :

shorts will drive this pair down till most longs are discouraged and doubtful in buying

and


when the true bottom will happen ?
  • #17,432
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:38am Aug 7, 2010 9:38am
Quoting Patience
Amen brother! You preach it. They're just testing the BoJ. Making them sweat a little.

Just like those Jehovah Witnesses that banged on my door the other day telling me the end is nigh. I said but the Yen hasn't reached 80 yet.
[.... Yen hasn't reached 80 yet] :-), I like it!!
  • #17,433
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:44am Aug 7, 2010 9:44am
Quoting Patience
Well that is a matter of perspective.

Just pulling your leg I like to play devil's advocate sometimes.
u mean it should be like this ...?
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  • #17,434
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:47am Aug 7, 2010 9:47am
Quoting TheArcher
any way of knowing when , or what indicates(indicators) :

shorts will drive this pair down till most longs are discouraged and doubtful in buying

and


when the true bottom will happen ?

When traders are playing games with a central bank, technical indicators are completely useless, the only indicator you can use is right on your chart---price action!.......actually i think techy indis are useless for the most part! but that's just my opinion. The only thing that will indicate a true bottom in this pair will be strong BOJ intervention. Central banks have a habit of playing procrastinator when it comes to policies.....they ignore problems till they get to serious status. This is what BOJ is doing right now, yea they could have and probably should have intervened a bit @ 85 to show their presence in the matter, but they didn't. We might see a bounce here from the naysayer shorts that are exiting with the prospects that 85 was the bottom, a bounce near 87 when strong shorts will come back in and try to break 85, most likely succeeding. With that being said, I doubt BOJ will really intervene until they absolutely have to(near 80). This pair is not easy to trade, its behavior is very odd compared to other pairs.
  • #17,435
  • Aug 7, 2010 9:58am Aug 7, 2010 9:58am
Quoting mfoste1
the only indicator you can use is right on your chart---price action!.......


what PA will be the give away sign ..?

Quoting mfoste1

The only thing that will indicate a true bottom in this pair will be strong BOJ intervention.
... that is when we hear it on the radio or tv or bloomberg.com ..?
  • #17,436
  • Aug 7, 2010 10:01am Aug 7, 2010 10:01am
Quoting TheArcher
what PA will be the give away sign ..?



... that is when we hear it on the radio or tv or bloomberg.com ..?


complete capitulation (shorts will be trying to give as many margin calls to longs as possible).........all this wont happen for a few weeks until heavy volume returns to the market.


you'll hear about the intervention after its been done.......there aren't any free lunches in this business. So now you can see just how difficult and dangerous it is to pick tops and bottoms.
  • #17,437
  • Aug 7, 2010 10:07am Aug 7, 2010 10:07am
Quoting mfoste1
complete capitulation (shorts will be trying to give as many margin calls to longs as possible).........
and how do we get to know when ' shorts will be trying to give as many margin calls to longs as possible ' .... can we, as retail players , get such an information ?

by the way ' complete capitulation (shorts will be trying to give as many margin calls to longs as possible ' , feels like a tongue-twister ... what does it mean in plain English ..?
  • #17,438
  • Aug 7, 2010 10:09am Aug 7, 2010 10:09am
Quoting TheArcher
and how do we get to know when ' shorts will be trying to give as many margin calls to longs as possible ' .... can we, retail players , get such an information ?

no.....like i said watch for complete capitulation, thats when all the longs will be getting margin calls. Man, as a retail trader its extremely difficult to catch a bottom in this pair.....you have no idea of the forces that are at work against you.
  • #17,439
  • Aug 7, 2010 10:14am Aug 7, 2010 10:14am
Quoting TheArcher
and how do we get to know when ' shorts will be trying to give as many margin calls to longs as possible ' .... can we, as retail players , get such an information ?

by the way ' complete capitulation (shorts will be trying to give as many margin calls to longs as possible ' , feels like a tongue-twister ... what does it mean in plain English ..?

that means that big money will be trying to blow up as many institutional and retail trader's accounts who were long......because big money is short.
  • #17,440
  • Aug 7, 2010 10:18am Aug 7, 2010 10:18am
Quoting TheArcher
u mean it should be like this ...?
Sure, whatever you want to see. You see bullish, I see bearish. I was just pointing out to another poster when he said there was bullish divergence that there was also hidden bearish divergence. That's all. You will know when the bottom is near. The majority of posters on this thread will be going short after capitulating their longs.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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