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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,361
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:02am Aug 5, 2010 3:02am
obviously we have different set of opens and closes ... hence the different pivots ....

will get to the bottom of this soon ...
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  • #17,362
  • Aug 5, 2010 3:14am Aug 5, 2010 3:14am
Quoting TheArcher
obviously we have different set of opens and closes ... hence the different pivots ....

will get to the bottom of this soon ...
That's quite a difference....where is your broker based?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,363
  • Aug 5, 2010 4:13am Aug 5, 2010 4:13am
Quoting forexer101
Patience, nice EA you have there. Would you be so kind to share the RSX? Seems interesting to study. I've occasionally found few posts about the use of it. Thx in advance.

You can start here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15197

I'm not sure if there have been any updates etc but I would say it is best to read all of GodfreyH's posts re Jurik.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,364
  • Aug 5, 2010 4:43am Aug 5, 2010 4:43am
Quoting WGann
From now until 2010-08-31, 88 will be a very strong resistance for USDJPY.
so far my chart don't tell me 88,00 is a strong resistance.... we will see.. latter..
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,365
  • Aug 5, 2010 7:21am Aug 5, 2010 7:21am
Quoting realjumper
88 + or - will be a tough nut to crack....recent high and monthly pivot etc etc, but no nut is so tough that it can't be broke!

Having said that, this pair is still in deep shit and it's immediate future hangs in the balance of NFP. As I said before, NFP started this downhill slide a couple of months ago.....NFP can arrest the slide and send it back up, or else really tank it completely.
NFP or for that matter any news will only create a temp spike, when the momentum is over the pair will resume to do what it should do. The trend will only reverse when time expires. Think about this as fate and destiny, it will help your trading.
  • #17,366
  • Aug 5, 2010 7:23am Aug 5, 2010 7:23am
Quoting Deanchain
so far my chart don't tell me 88,00 is a strong resistance.... we will see.. latter..
Ofcos it doesn't tell you anything, you are looking at the past mate, to know the future you need to look at something that is about to happen, maybe like an ephemeris?
  • #17,367
  • Aug 5, 2010 7:38am Aug 5, 2010 7:38am
Quoting WGann
NFP or for that matter any news will only create a temp spike, when the momentum is over the pair will resume to do what it should do. The trend will only reverse when time expires. Think about this as fate and destiny, it will help your trading.
No, not so at all. NFP of 2 months ago was the ignition to the fall that brought us to where we are today. It fell (more or less) 100 pips from mid 92 and never recovered
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,368
  • Aug 5, 2010 7:50am Aug 5, 2010 7:50am
Quoting realjumper
No, not so at all. NFP of 2 months ago was the ignition to the fall that brought us to where we are today. It fell (more or less) 100 pips from mid 92 and never recovered
So would you say if tomorrow's NFP was bearish the down trend will continue? My call is that no matter what happens tomorrow, the down trend will be over, becos time expires on Saturday. And I will show you how to trade what I predict.
  • #17,369
  • Aug 5, 2010 7:56am Aug 5, 2010 7:56am
It has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci, and going up to make a new top over 86.40 (My guess)
M15 Chart with Fibonacci

Happy trading to everyone
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  • #17,370
  • Aug 5, 2010 7:56am Aug 5, 2010 7:56am
Quoting realjumper
No, not so at all. NFP of 2 months ago was the ignition to the fall that brought us to where we are today. It fell (more or less) 100 pips from mid 92 and never recovered
Actually, this is a flaw which comes with our ability to observe and reason. We see A and B happened at the same time and we think there is some connections between them. Then we came up with things like various stats tests etc. It is linear thinking, it won't get you anywhere. This is not school exam, being able to play with equations and draw fancy lines won't give you an A grade.
  • #17,371
  • Aug 5, 2010 7:57am Aug 5, 2010 7:57am
What you are saying is a bit weird. If you are right then you will totally change the way I look at forex.

My input however, is that all of these news numbers are manipulated one way or another. The big guys are in agreement on what needs to be done and what prices currencies should be at. They release the numbers so that prices go where they want them to go.

If you are right and the downtrend is ending this week, then believe me tomorrow's numbers will be good so that USD rises.

I will be really amazed if the numbers came bad and we see USD starts to go up on Monday. I might stop trading forex if this happens


Quoting WGann
So would you say if tomorrow's NFP was bearish the down trend will continue? My call is that no matter what happens tomorrow, the down trend will be over, becos time expires on Saturday. And I will show you how to trade what I predict.
  • #17,372
  • Aug 5, 2010 8:03am Aug 5, 2010 8:03am
Quoting WGann
So would you say if tomorrow's NFP was bearish the down trend will continue? My call is that no matter what happens tomorrow, the down trend will be over, becos time expires on Saturday. And I will show you how to trade what I predict.
No, I wouldn't say that. Neither would I say that ALL news creates only temporary spikes, because it simply isn't true. Case in point being the NFP I've already mentioned, the Dubai default news and many other examples even as recently as the NZ unemployment rate, which caused the Kiwi to drop 100 pips, from which it also hasn't recovered, and I would be suprised if it did. Sometimes news does create a temporary spike....sometimes it sets direction for weeks or months. News (and banks) move the markets...that's just the way it is.

Thanks for your offer of showing me how to trade your predictions, but I'm doing just fine thanks.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,373
  • Aug 5, 2010 8:07am Aug 5, 2010 8:07am
Quoting WGann
Actually, this is a flaw which comes with our ability to observe and reason. We see A and B happened at the same time and we think there is some connections between them. Then we came up with things like various stats tests etc. It is linear thinking, it won't get you anywhere. This is not school exam, being able to play with equations and draw fancy lines won't give you an A grade.
That's because there IS a connection. NFP came in bad and investers consequently sought a better risk currency to invest in. The Euro wasn't the flavour of the month, but the Yen certainly was....hence, USD/JPY tanked for 2 months ....... waddya mean there's no connection?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,374
  • Aug 5, 2010 8:54am Aug 5, 2010 8:54am
Trade more, let the P/L talk.
  • #17,375
  • Aug 5, 2010 12:08pm Aug 5, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting WGann
Actually, this is a flaw which comes with our ability to observe and reason. We see A and B happened at the same time and we think there is some connections between them. Then we came up with things like various stats tests etc. It is linear thinking, it won't get you anywhere. This is not school exam, being able to play with equations and draw fancy lines won't give you an A grade.
so what works then ?
  • #17,376
  • Edited Aug 6, 2010 2:01am Aug 5, 2010 12:17pm | Edited Aug 6, 2010 2:01am
heard on bbc about Wheat Ban in Russia ... were the BigBoys pushing and pulling the currencies for this in the background the last couple of days ?... who knows ... this is one hell of a cut throat dirty business ...
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  • #17,377
  • Aug 5, 2010 12:40pm Aug 5, 2010 12:40pm
Quoting WGann
Actually, this is a flaw which comes with our ability to observe and reason. We see A and B happened at the same time and we think there is some connections between them. Then we came up with things like various stats tests etc. It is linear thinking, it won't get you anywhere. This is not school exam, being able to play with equations and draw fancy lines won't g ive you an A grade.
I could never do equations and I definitely didn't get an A grade in mathematics. And today is a perfect example of why I don't trade U/J. And I'll keep on wondering why people do .....
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,378
  • Aug 5, 2010 8:01pm Aug 5, 2010 8:01pm
Quoting Patience
I could never do equations and I definitely didn't get an A grade in mathematics. And today is a perfect example of why I don't trade U/J. And I'll keep on wondering why people do .....
Story of my life Patience......I'm soooo misunderstood!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,379
  • Aug 5, 2010 10:57pm Aug 5, 2010 10:57pm
hopefully it can break 86,5x today... so it will continue to 87...
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,380
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:47am Aug 6, 2010 2:47am
Quoting realjumper
That's quite a difference....where is your broker based?

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