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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,341
  • Aug 4, 2010 1:31pm Aug 4, 2010 1:31pm
Quoting Patience
This probably sounds dumb but what correlation are you talking about? I'm not getting what you mean about 6-8 months ago.
it seemed to me, as the EU fell from November through about April/May...UJ would rise not as far but the dollar strength showed on both pairs at the same time. when the EU took the leg down from 2600-1800...UJ seemed to drop at the same time.
where as from 5500-2600, EU would fall as UJ would rise. it's only been one day but the prices that it happened at cannot be coincidental from my point of view
  • #17,342
  • Aug 4, 2010 2:07pm Aug 4, 2010 2:07pm
1st target reached at 86.25 (Entry chart on post 17322)
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  • #17,343
  • Aug 4, 2010 2:27pm Aug 4, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting uraceulose
it seemed to me, as the EU fell from November through about April/May...UJ would rise not as far but the dollar strength showed on both pairs at the same time. when the EU took the leg down from 2600-1800...UJ seemed to drop at the same time.
where as from 5500-2600, EU would fall as UJ would rise. it's only been one day but the prices that it happened at cannot be coincidental from my point of view
Mmmmm, okay, thanks. Gonna have to have a look at that. In the olden days - lol - well a few years ago, if G/U and E/U were going up (because they used to generally go up together), the Yen was usually weaker because it was the carry currency which doesn't really apply anymore as the US$ could be considered the carry currency at the moment. Until the US start making noises about interest rates going up, I don't see too much upside for the Yen which is why I was surprised about your 120 target in 6-8 months.

Forgot to say before nice trade Petar
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,344
  • Aug 4, 2010 3:08pm Aug 4, 2010 3:08pm
Patience,

You have more experience in this than I do. I see this pair at the all time low and Japan in a bad situation. US is too but everyone does already know, it's public info..the usdebtclock has it's own website.
We haven't been printing a ton of money these last 6 months or so..not fresh money anyway. The rates don't really have anywhere to go but up, eventually someone smart enough such as greenspan or something will get through to BB and he will see that we have to start increasing the rates. Sooner rather than later. At the same time, we're going to have to create some jobs in the private sector here in the US. We've done it before, with the technologies in energy/communication coming about...there are still huge possibilities that I say we will accomplish.
0 percent or .002 whatever is far too low to be lending money, it's not helping either. it's been nice but you still have to have an 800 credit score or 50K in the bank to get a big/good loan.
if dollar falls far enough against the basket, i may win my bet(with skyzer) about rates rising by the end of the year or sooner too. i'm optimistic on this one but again, I think BB knows truly that 2-3 years of rates like this is unrealistic with the printing that we have done. take into account that usually when a dem is in office, dollar rises...look where the dollar is in relation to the swissy too...i don't think we've seen SNB or BOJ in awhile and I'm sure they are watching
  • #17,345
  • Aug 4, 2010 4:17pm Aug 4, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting uraceulose
I see this pair at the all time low and Japan in a bad situation.
It's not at the all time low but I get what you are saying. Let's not forget that Japan has a current account surplus.

Were you trading back in 2007? If not, check out the monthly on USD/CAD. Now that was exciting Not so much for me because I tried to catch the falling knife around the 1.07 area Sometimes currencies can go way further than you expect.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,346
  • Aug 4, 2010 5:51pm Aug 4, 2010 5:51pm
Quoting Patience
It's not at the all time low but I get what you are saying. Let's not forget that Japan has a current account surplus.

Were you trading back in 2007? If not, check out the monthly on USD/CAD. Now that was exciting Not so much for me because I tried to catch the falling knife around the 1.07 area Sometimes currencies can go way further than you expect.
I was trading but not live forex. I traded only stocks and options for a few years watching forex patiently on demo...it could go way farther yes, I still won't go more than 1.5-2 percent so it'll take me quite a few tries to put a dent in the account. currencies are crazy tho, really the leverage is cray
  • #17,347
  • Aug 4, 2010 5:53pm Aug 4, 2010 5:53pm
Quoting Patience
It's not at the all time low but I get what you are saying. Let's not forget that Japan has a current account surplus.

Were you trading back in 2007? If not, check out the monthly on USD/CAD. Now that was exciting Not so much for me because I tried to catch the falling knife around the 1.07 area Sometimes currencies can go way further than you expect.
I was trading but not live forex. I traded only stocks and options for a few years watching forex patiently on demo...it could go way farther yes, I still won't go more than 1.5-2 percent so it'll take me quite a few tries to put a dent in the account. currencies are crazy tho, really the leverage is crazy
  • #17,348
  • Aug 4, 2010 9:41pm Aug 4, 2010 9:41pm
Quoting Patience
Wow, big time trader. Nice Picture has changed a little for me now. QE looks to have been taken off the table with today's price action and Godfrey's Jurik indicator has given me classical bullish divergence on 4 hour chart with RSI turning up from very oversold levels. I don't have tweezers on daily of course because of my different timezone. Could very well try for 87.00 or weekly pivot which I have at 86.82. I don't mean today of course, we've already done 111% of ADR.

Attachment
Patience, nice EA you have there. Would you be so kind to share the RSX? Seems interesting to study. I've occasionally found few posts about the use of it. Thx in advance.

  • #17,349
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:02pm Aug 4, 2010 10:02pm
If UJ can break 87,2x... it will go up like a rocket... to 90

hopefully today UJ won't fall to much....
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,350
  • Aug 4, 2010 10:07pm Aug 4, 2010 10:07pm
Quoting Deanchain
If UJ can break 87,2x... it will go up like a rocket... to 90

hopefully today UJ won't fall to much....
From now until 2010-08-31, 88 will be a very strong resistance for USDJPY.
  • #17,351
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:07pm Aug 4, 2010 11:07pm
Why this pair, since the pip potential is lower than the GBPUSD, GBPJPY etc?

Just curious? I have set up a micro account and currently analyzing one -to two pairs to focus on. Looking at margin, spread and daily price action potential.

With my broker, the margin for micro on the USDJPY is $20 per lot with a 12 cents per pip. I have learned to do a top down analysis from the weekly to the 5 minute chart. Since my margin balance is low, want to focus on price action at the London open to close or Tokyo open to close plus London open. After my balance quadruples like to trade a lot or two on the weekly trend along with daily price action.

Any thoughts?
  • #17,352
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:07pm Aug 4, 2010 11:07pm
Quoting WGann
From now until 2010-08-31, 88 will be a very strong resistance for USDJPY.
88 + or - will be a tough nut to crack....recent high and monthly pivot etc etc, but no nut is so tough that it can't be broke!

Having said that, this pair is still in deep shit and it's immediate future hangs in the balance of NFP. As I said before, NFP started this downhill slide a couple of months ago.....NFP can arrest the slide and send it back up, or else really tank it completely.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,353
  • Aug 4, 2010 11:12pm Aug 4, 2010 11:12pm
Quoting sinclap
Why this pair, since the pip potential is lower than the GBPUSD, GBPJPY etc?

Just curious? I have set up a micro account and currently analyzing one -to two pairs to focus on. Looking at margin, spread and daily price action potential.

With my broker, the margin for micro on the USDJPY is $20 per lot with a 12 cents per pip. I have learned to do a top down analysis from the weekly to the 5 minute chart. Since my margin balance is low, want to focus on price action at the London open to close or Tokyo open to close plus London open. After my...
If I'm understanding your question correctly: This pair is not so likely to have violent swings and spikes as some other pairs are prone to. Not to say that it can't happen, but generally speaking it's a reasonably docile pair to trade. It's a good pair to 'cut your teeth' on, especially if you're starting with small capital. Yes the gains are less than some other pairs, but a gain is a gain.....until such time as the size of your account and your experience allows to trade more.....ummm....adventurous pairs.

HTH
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,354
  • Aug 5, 2010 1:12am Aug 5, 2010 1:12am
Quoting MisterTrader
Originally Posted by MisterTrader http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
[i]Originally Posted by MisterTrader http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
[i]1) China is buying JPY bonds in the last couple of weeks in order to diversify away from USD and EUR
2) Retail traders are long USD/JPY in...
85.35 touched 2 days later than anticpated. Nevertheless, the trend remains your friend. USD/JPY will not move higher. Below 85.00 prints still the target.
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,355
  • Aug 5, 2010 1:17am Aug 5, 2010 1:17am
Quoting MisterTrader
85.35 touched 2 days later than anticpated. Nevertheless, the trend remains your friend. USD/JPY will not move higher. Below 85.00 prints still the target.
Is that a promise?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,356
  • Aug 5, 2010 1:22am Aug 5, 2010 1:22am
Quoting MisterTrader
85.35 touched 2 days later than anticpated. Nevertheless, the trend remains your friend. USD/JPY will not move higher. Below 85.00 prints still the target.

That's a big call mate. I totally agree the trend is your friend but at the 85ish levels I start getting a bit concerned with intervention. It is a matter of time with this pair I think....Japanese companies are not too thrilled with the strong yen....I am wondering if they are waiting for NFP results because if they are USD positive then they don't have to intervene (yet).

I actually thought we would hit the 84.80 level before heading up...but I guess the dollar is finally getting some strength after 8 weeks of being down.

But again, in this game anything can happen.
  • #17,357
  • Aug 5, 2010 2:17am Aug 5, 2010 2:17am
not thinking much .....just dabbling ....
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  • #17,358
  • Aug 5, 2010 2:23am Aug 5, 2010 2:23am
Quoting TheArcher
not thinking much .....just dabbling ....
I took a long earlier today from the pivot. The SL is at BE+spread. I'm content to leave this one alone to either get stopped out or hit R1. There isn't much power around this pair at the moment....perhaps when the unemployment claims come out it will kick this thing one way or the other
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,359
  • Aug 5, 2010 2:32am Aug 5, 2010 2:32am
Quoting realjumper
I took a long earlier today from the pivot. The SL is at BE+spread. I'm content to leave this one alone to either get stopped out or hit R1. There isn't much power around this pair at the moment....perhaps when the unemployment claims come out it will kick this thing one way or the other
what is ur pivot point ?

is it based on yesterday's daily bar ? from NY midnight to midnight
  • #17,360
  • Aug 5, 2010 2:45am Aug 5, 2010 2:45am
Quoting TheArcher
what is ur pivot point ?

is it based on yesterday's daily bar ? from NY midnight to midnight
86.01

Yes.

Check this link....they have the pivot just 2 pips lower than mine http://www.pivotfarm.com/pivot-points.php
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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