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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,161
  • Aug 1, 2010 9:07am Aug 1, 2010 9:07am
Quoting puks
Hey guys,

have a look at the attached British Pound COT index.

It appears that we are at a high probability short set-up which could be good for 100-150 pips.
I agree. A decent retrace on EUR/USD is also on the cards from here I believe. They always come when least expected and now all the analysts are calling long again, its another good sign its time to sell
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  • #4,162
  • Aug 1, 2010 9:09am Aug 1, 2010 9:09am
Quoting puks
Hey guys,

have a look at the attached British Pound COT index.

It appears that we are at a high probability short set-up which could be good for 100-150 pips.
Why only 100-150 out of interest?
  • #4,163
  • Aug 1, 2010 5:43pm Aug 1, 2010 5:43pm
Quoting SanMiguel
Why only 100-150 out of interest?
Presumably because of the areas shown below?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable h4.gif Size: 57 KB
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #4,164
  • Aug 1, 2010 5:53pm Aug 1, 2010 5:53pm
Quoting Dhb
Presumably because of the areas shown below?

Attachment
Yep, I see, the 4hr up channel is good for poinpointing a possible downside support but I expect this channel tp break to the downside at some point also - worth leaving some of the trade open.
  • #4,165
  • Aug 2, 2010 2:44pm Aug 2, 2010 2:44pm
God! Can you sleep well with almost 20% floating loss?

I was joking to someone the other day, that when you predicted a sharp fall in equities, you were talking about your own equity. It was a bad joke. Sorry. However you beat me. It took me 6 months to lose 10%.

Lip service and hypocrisy never helped anyone in the markets. So I won't say anything like that.
Now be a man and take that loss. Then sit down and think were it all went wrong. All those who spoke in declarative sentences about the market ( = this and that WILL happen soon), got their fingers burnt big time.

Cheer up, remember what Edison said - I haven't failed, just found 10 thousand ways that didn't work.

Quoting shahab8b
As I mentioned before: Equities are in early stage of a sharp fall
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #4,166
  • Aug 2, 2010 2:53pm Aug 2, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting shahab8b
Cable :Short Set Up
After today, cable looks like it might test 1.5930ish.
Any thoughts?
It looks like typical short squeeze stuff...
  • #4,167
  • Aug 2, 2010 7:15pm Aug 2, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting SanMiguel
After today, cable looks like it might test 1.5930ish.
Any thoughts?
It looks like typical short squeeze stuff...
It could go on to 1.6120-1.6130. Previous S turned resistance,

USD Index has more room to fall and there is no support in sight till 79.50 (technically). Prior to that 80.

EUR could make a run towards 1.3420
  • #4,168
  • Aug 3, 2010 1:08am Aug 3, 2010 1:08am
Quoting spekitox
Cheer up, remember what Edison said - I haven't failed, just found 10 thousand ways that didn't work.
Wow, Speki, you need to chill man. Your losses are getting to you. If making posts like this get you back in the green, then I'll shut up but in my world, negativity breeds negativity.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #4,169
  • Aug 3, 2010 7:05am Aug 3, 2010 7:05am
Quoting spekitox
..
I understand what you are saying, the problem with this mt4 account is that we are trading indicies futures, commodities and forex at the same time in one account , that's the main reason of the point you mentioned. We will figure out something about it soon, whether to allocate three separate accounts for them or to increase our capital to 30K as we are trading mainly 0.1-0.2 lot size and we have our SL according to them.
For your record we are not holding any open position from our forex signal service at the moment as we've just stopped out on our short Cable trade.

BTW, please note this thread is for sharing ideas and trade set ups. Having said that if you have a chart or a set up to share with others you are welcome to post, otherwise you can open your own thread for other purposes.
  • #4,170
  • Aug 3, 2010 7:17am Aug 3, 2010 7:17am
U/Cad Long Set Up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad2w.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #4,171
  • Aug 3, 2010 7:45am Aug 3, 2010 7:45am
Interesting chart, Shahab. I'd personally be wary to go long U/Cad though.

If you look at the W1 chart of u/c, I'd say we're still in a downtrend, and that the last few weeks have only been a temporary break. Then there's the upmove in the price of crude of the last couple of days. Ordinarily, that should be putting some downward pressure on u/cad. Also, according to the COT report, the non-commercials are still heavily betting short u/c (or actually long cad/usd).

Looking forward to see if this u/cad butterfly will soar or not.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #4,172
  • Aug 3, 2010 8:40am Aug 3, 2010 8:40am
I am new to harmonics and Im still just gettting my head around them but this seems to qualify, let me know if it is correct or not thanks Shabab8b
It is the AUD/USD daily and looks like a reversal candle forming today to complete the pattern. If this and the USD/CAD are in alignment for a sell off it could be predicting the the equities decline you have been waiting for
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gartley.jpg Size: 97 KB
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  • #4,173
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:04am Aug 3, 2010 10:04am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I am new to harmonics and Im still just gettting my head around them but this seems to qualify, let me know if it is correct or not thanks Shabab8b
It is the AUD/USD daily and looks like a reversal candle forming today to complete the pattern. If this and the USD/CAD are in alignment for a sell off it could be predicting the the equities decline you have been waiting for

Hi M.A.C.Doug,

I've got the same Bearish Gartley #4123
+ bearish div and a rising wedge pattern which all indicate the potential of a significant drop from this level.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud3.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au3e.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #4,174
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:07am Aug 3, 2010 10:07am
Quoting Dhb
Interesting chart, Shahab. I'd personally be wary to go long U/Cad though.

If you look at the W1 chart of u/c, I'd say we're still in a downtrend, and that the last few weeks have only been a temporary break. Then there's the upmove in the price of crude of the last couple of days. Ordinarily, that should be putting some downward pressure on u/cad. Also, according to the COT report, the non-commercials are still heavily betting short u/c (or actually long cad/usd).

Looking forward to see if this u/cad butterfly will soar or not.

Hi there,
I understand what you are saying, agree with that too. We should be careful with counter trend trade ,but harmonic are mostly counter trend in nature, the good thing about them is the good RRR that they provide; if they work half of them time that will be enough.
  • #4,175
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:13am Aug 3, 2010 10:13am
I'm starting to get that deja vu feeling I wonder if they are going to string this out until September or we'll get a nice surprise come NFP this Friday.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #4,176
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:21am Aug 3, 2010 10:21am
I see 1.60 confluence of fib/round#/monthly R/S>R +being overbought from daily chart and below a reasonable level to short, in case of a drop I expect that to come down to 1.56-57
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable4w.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #4,177
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:22am Aug 3, 2010 10:22am
hi guys

GBPCAD (DIV,Butterfly)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #4,178
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:35am Aug 3, 2010 10:35am
Quoting Patience
I'm starting to get that deja vu feeling I wonder if they are going to string this out until September or we'll get a nice surprise come NFP this Friday.

Hi Patience ,

How is it going? They are selling USD like there is no tomorrow ,whether it's a correction to downtrend (E/U and G/U I mean) or its a new uptrend it needs a sizable correction from this level,particularly Cable.
  • #4,179
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:37am Aug 3, 2010 10:37am
AUDCAD240
AB=CD
S&R
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #4,180
  • Aug 3, 2010 10:55am Aug 3, 2010 10:55am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Patience ,

How is it going? They are selling USD like there is no tomorrow ,whether it's a correction to downtrend (E/U and G/U I mean) or its a new uptrend it needs a sizable correction from this level,particularly Cable.
Hey Shahab - Isn't it breathtaking? Do you remember this chart I posted on 19th June? If only I had followed my most expert technical analysis

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-daily-19jun.jpg Size: 194 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-daily-3aug.jpg Size: 191 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
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