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  • #277,121
  • Edited 12:05pm Aug 2, 2010 11:14am | Edited 12:05pm
Though the target area not reached yet can turn around again from about 1.3131 for 3214 or at least halfway of the raise mouth before breakdown , one LEG not enough for the balance & stand long time , next target short towards 1.2724 ( 2739/50 ) .
not what next.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #277,122
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:18am Aug 2, 2010 11:18am
Quoting Mr Bull
We do see things in different ways but in my perpective the market only gets overbought/oversold when there is no balance between buyers and sellers. The fact is that there is still balance between buyers and sellers. Also, a lot institutional traders only started to believe in the end of the bear trend 2 weeks ago (after 200 MA cross) and that is causing a reverse in their positions portfolio.
I don't think there is retracements based on the weekly chart. But who knows. You might be right.
Which 200 MA cross?
  • #277,123
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:24am Aug 2, 2010 11:24am
Quoting fontu
Though the target area not reached yet can turn around again from about 1.3131 for 3214 or at least halfway of the raise mouth before breakdown , one not enough for the balance & stand long time , next target short towards 1.2724 ( 2739/50 ) .
not what next.
fontu
ur consistency in giving accurate prediction really impress me.
  • #277,124
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:25am Aug 2, 2010 11:25am
I do agree with you that the last move up was propelled only a few weeks ago when it was very clear the meat of the bear trend was over combined with weak dollar fundamentals and stronger than expected EZ numbers.

About the balance between buyers/sellers that will be nice to know but it's only good from a theoretical point of view. There are too many contradictory participants in the markets now. Maybe in markets like wheat, soybeans or related that nice "price finding" can still be determined. In the case of currencies a large fund hedging a position, a Central Bank, a large speculator, Investment Banks playing with options or a large company covering exchange rate fluctuations have almost nothing to do with what institutional forex traders do and worst with small forex traders.

In other words that nice balance between buyers/seller happens every tick is trade beyond that is nothing to do with buyers/sellers balance but with pure fundamentals, expectations of big player and financial position of large institutions that usually create the unbalance between buyers/sellers

sisse


Quoting Mr Bull
We do see things in different ways but in my perpective the market only gets overbought/oversold when there is no balance between buyers and sellers. The fact is that there is still balance between buyers and sellers. Also, a lot institutional traders only started to believe in the end of the bear trend 2 weeks ago (after 200 MA cross) and that is causing a reverse in their positions portfolio.
I don't think there is retracements based on the weekly chart. But who knows. You might be right.
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #277,125
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:29am Aug 2, 2010 11:29am
http://www.ftd.de/politik/internatio.../50151915.html

for those who aren't speaking german:

this article is wrote about the debt problems of the single us states like arizona.
However they say also, that the single states are cutting their expenses and are so neutralising the stimulus package of Washington
Pecunia non olet
  • #277,126
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:35am Aug 2, 2010 11:35am
Caught in the wrong side of the market today. There is nothing tradable in my charts today so I better keep chating and not trading.

For all those longs enjoy the ride.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #277,127
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:39am Aug 2, 2010 11:39am
Quoting Natch
Which 200 MA cross?
Sorry, I meant 100 MA on daily chart. You probably receive charts from your broker with that MA. I know my brokers send me charts to my email box with that MA and a lot of analysts see it as a big thing. I don't know why. I don't really pay attention to that MA.
  • #277,128
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:40am Aug 2, 2010 11:40am
Quoting sisse
Caught in the wrong side of the market today. There is nothing tradable in my charts today so I better keep chating and not trading.

For all those longs enjoy the ride.

sisse
It happens to the best of us but you're a good analyst. (in fact I'm currently short the Stoxx 50!!!)

Quoting Mr Bull
Sorry, I meant 100 MA on daily chart. You probably receive charts from your broker with that MA. I know my brokers send me charts to my email box with that MA and a lot of analysts see it as a big thing. I don't know why. I don't really play attention to that MA.
No worries. I don't tend to track MAs although I'm vaugely aware of the levels so when you mentioned the 200 MA cross I thought I may have missed something. Thanks for the clarification.
  • #277,129
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:43am Aug 2, 2010 11:43am
Quoting sisse
Caught in the wrong side of the market today. There is nothing tradable in my charts today so I better keep chating and not trading.

For all those longs enjoy the ride.

sisse
We kept adding longs from 2300...everytime a resistance failed to hold, we jumped in...thats how you make consistent profits and grow an account.
  • #277,130
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:44am Aug 2, 2010 11:44am
Quoting cheagil
ur consistency in giving accurate prediction really impress me.
Thanks , ok but see my signature please !
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #277,131
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:54am Aug 2, 2010 11:54am
Quoting Fxtrader
We kept adding longs from 2300...everytime a resistance failed to hold, we jumped in...thats how you make consistent profits and grow an account.
That's nice work in a month for over 800+ pips. The question I am asking myself is when will you positional traders start taking profit.
  • #277,132
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:59am Aug 2, 2010 11:59am
Quoting Atlast
That's nice work in a month for over 800+ pips. The question I am asking myself is when will you positional traders start taking profit.
Trade multiple positions and take partial profits on the way up, trailing the remainder of the position and adding more positions everytime a resistance fails to hold. Do the same when the market is going down
  • #277,133
  • Aug 2, 2010 12:04pm Aug 2, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting Fxtrader
Trade multiple positions and take partial profits on the way up, trailing the remainder of the position and adding more positions everytime a resistance fails to hold. Do the same when the market is going down
we are on the same wavelength, except mine is strictly intraday trading.
I gave up positional trading long time ago after getting seriously defeated after multiple battles.
  • #277,134
  • Aug 2, 2010 12:05pm Aug 2, 2010 12:05pm
Well done. "Sadly" as a small independent trader I don't have that "purchasing power", that precision or the information to hold such a long time with the current volatility. I took a couple of longs around those areas and my tiny 80 and 100 ticks couple of trades and my 2 losers of 20 ticks each were good enough to make a decent profit during those weeks without passing my risk level.

sisse


Quoting Fxtrader
We kept adding longs from 2300...everytime a resistance failed to hold, we jumped in...thats how you make consistent profits and grow an account.
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #277,135
  • Aug 2, 2010 12:18pm Aug 2, 2010 12:18pm
soooooooo quiet ... pssssssst
someone is cooking something ...

uuuuuuuaaaaaaaaaa....
... feel better day by day.
  • #277,136
  • Aug 2, 2010 12:31pm Aug 2, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting zoom
soooooooo quiet ... pssssssst
someone is cooking something ...

uuuuuuuaaaaaaaaaa....

yea its called summer afternoon no volume
  • #277,137
  • Aug 2, 2010 12:32pm Aug 2, 2010 12:32pm
wishfull thinking here... LOL

Quoting zoom
soooooooo quiet ... pssssssst
someone is cooking something ...

uuuuuuuaaaaaaaaaa....
Attached Image
dreams do come true.
  • #277,138
  • Aug 2, 2010 12:32pm Aug 2, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting fontu
Though the target area not reached yet can turn around again from about 1.3131 for 3214 or at least halfway of the raise mouth before breakdown , one LEG not enough for the balance & stand long time , next target short towards 1.2724 ( 2739/50 ) .
not what next.
fontu
you mean short from 3200 for 2700 or lower will be next?i can see we can test 3210-3230 before go down. Lower Ltl of Daily is around 1.2600 we can test max 3230 and then hopeful down till 2600 for further go up but i don't think that we will be able to break this year high 4500 too soon what do you say..we are testing important area of Fibo also..one more thing we can't deny 200 days EMA which is on 3275 good luck waiting for your reply on chart...

Ub
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  • #277,139
  • Aug 2, 2010 12:43pm Aug 2, 2010 12:43pm
Latest H1 elliott wave count (always others might see differently) shows waiting for wave 4 to complete of a Wave 5 of 5. So the end might be near.
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  • #277,140
  • Aug 2, 2010 12:45pm Aug 2, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting ubaidahsan
you mean short from 3200 for 2700 or lower will be next?i can see we can test 3210-3230 before go down. Lower Ltl of Daily is around 1.2600 we can test max 3230 and then hopeful down till 2600 for further go up but i don't think that we will be able to break this year high 4500 too soon what do you say..we are testing important area of Fibo also..one more thing we can't deny 200 days EMA which is on 3275 good luck waiting for your reply on chart...

Ub
expecting the break 1.3200 not neccessary hold , so 3214-30 ok before the fall . anyway the top taken arbitrarily so can also high enough or even may not able test 3200 , failed halfway !
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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