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  • #277,101
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:27am Aug 2, 2010 10:27am
Quoting Patience
I've got 200 MA at 80.71. I haven't seen RSI this oversold on daily since that wicked spike back in December 2008.........
As I am sure you know oversold can keep on staying oversold as long as "it" wants.

80.84 and dropping.
  • #277,102
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:28am Aug 2, 2010 10:28am
Quoting Atlast
London session sold the dollar heavily, now it's NY time to bring some sense of balance to the market.
that doesn't seem to be the case so far... if we close above 3200 today then i wouldn't expect this to drop below 3150 anytime soon.
  • #277,103
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:28am Aug 2, 2010 10:28am
Quoting sisse
If you quickly check a monthly chart you can see why its happening. Euro went down very fast in panic mode without leaving a trace to follow. So when panic stops the pullbacks/retraces in any market follow the same pattern. Weekly and daily are in extremely overbought mania (which doesn't necessarily mean sell) ... any bubble or fear panic sell in any market have the same "pattern" of behavior. Check for example what happened with the euro during the financial collapse Oct 2008 and look what happened the next few months...

sisse
5 minutes until the retrace.

Quoting Atlast
London session sold the dollar heavily, now it's NY time to bring some sense of balance to the market.
You could be right but I can only see a retrace of 40-50 pips.
  • #277,104
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:28am Aug 2, 2010 10:28am
Quoting Atlast
London session sold the dollar heavily, now it's NY time to bring some sense of balance to the market.

Euro is going back to 1.50 because the dow is going back to 14000.
  • #277,105
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:29am Aug 2, 2010 10:29am
"Bernanke's comments put one more nail on $USDX coffin; MORE HEAVY $USDX SELLING COMING UP until end fo London $$"

Just curious what exactly he said?
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #277,106
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:30am Aug 2, 2010 10:30am
weekly >>up>>up
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  • #277,107
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:30am Aug 2, 2010 10:30am
Quoting sisse
If you quickly check a monthly chart you can see why its happening. Euro went down very fast in panic mode without leaving a trace to follow. So when panic stops the pullbacks/retraces in any market follow the same pattern. Weekly and daily are in extremely overbought mania (which doesn't necessarily mean sell) ... any bubble or fear panic sell in any market have the same "pattern" of behavior. Check for example what happened with the euro during the financial collapse Oct 2008 and look what happened the next few months...

sisse
Weekly and daily are in extremely overbought mania?!!!
If you mean that the pair is overbought in those TF, let me tell you this: I don't know what indicator you use to see overbought conditions but weekly chart is still very far from overbought zone. If you use RSI, it didn't even crossed level 50. As for daily, we can still go upwards before entering in the overbought zone.
  • #277,108
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:30am Aug 2, 2010 10:30am
My chart. Probabilities favour return to 1.3118-1.3130 if the market gives a downbar.
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  • #277,109
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:37am Aug 2, 2010 10:37am
repeat after me... retrace retrace retrace... RE TR A CE so i can load longs at 1.313 again
Andreyou
  • #277,110
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:37am Aug 2, 2010 10:37am
Quoting SunTrader
As I am sure you know oversold can keep on staying oversold as long as "it" wants.

80.84 and dropping.
Oooohhhh, yeah, I know I use it for divergence most of the time. It is just surprising to me that it's reached that level. Equity markets are on fire and going for gold.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #277,111
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:48am Aug 2, 2010 10:48am
People dont know the eur/usd pair, 64% bearish sentiments. Well, eventually it will of course be true, but my mistrust in the (miss)logic of people is clearly well grounded.

Happy trading folks.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #277,112
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:51am Aug 2, 2010 10:51am
Don't get all excited bears, but we might go down. How many pips? Have no idea. All I can see is that we are now touching a weekly trendline so there's a chance for a down move, I think
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  • #277,113
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:52am Aug 2, 2010 10:52am
I don't use indicators. But 9 consecutive Higher Highs (and 9 out of 10 green bars in any timeframe in any market is overbought in my book. Only once in the last 10 weeks price have managed to barely break the lows when it broke the downtrend.

A +1300 pips/ticks move without even one weekly retrace is overbought mania in any chart. Does it mean it has to go down now? no not all as a previous poster mentioned. It simply testing all those untested "virgin POCs" (in market profile terms). I don't have any overbought/oversold zones by indicator definition.

I only define when market has exceed all potential S /R technical Levels (I can't be wrong in those levels of course) and the next one is too far to be realistically being hit under the normal range within the normal volatility of the particular instrument.

For you information, in the history of the euro, only the weekly uptrend sep/nov 2004 made so many consecutive green bars without retrace. It's subjective? yes maybe that's beyond the point, but in my case analyzing overbought/oversold like that have had a lot better results than any RSI.

sisse




Quoting Mr Bull
Weekly and daily are in extremely overbought mania?!!!
If you mean that the pair is overbought in those TF, let me tell you this: I don't know what indicator you use to see overbought conditions but weekly chart is still very far from overbought zone. If you use RSI, it didn't even crossed level 50. As for daily, we can still go upwards before entering in the overbought zone.
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #277,114
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:56am Aug 2, 2010 10:56am
will buy again at 45-50.

hapipipin
dreams do come true.
  • #277,115
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:04am Aug 2, 2010 11:04am
Quoting andreypu
repeat after me... retrace retrace retrace... RE TR A CE so i can load longs at 1.313 again
thank you everybody. i appreciate your help
Andreyou
  • #277,116
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:06am Aug 2, 2010 11:06am
want some more?

what do you say if we go down to 3115 and then u can all discuss if that was really a break of the 38% retrace on daily? LOL

hapipipin
dreams do come true.
  • #277,117
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:06am Aug 2, 2010 11:06am
this is still valid. 3100 and possibly 3000 next, maybe
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  • #277,118
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:09am Aug 2, 2010 11:09am
To be honest it looks like a clean break but yes if it happens that will be a hell of a bull trap.

sisse

Quoting wannaberich
want some more?

what do you say if we go down to 3115 and then u can all discuss if that was really a break of the 38% retrace on daily? LOL

hapipipin
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #277,119
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:09am Aug 2, 2010 11:09am
Even the demo I'm running on FXCM/Tradency (where someone else trades for you) just lost a cool $152.00. That must be real nice to come home to if you have a real account And they sold again at 1.3107 and again at 1.3140. Must have been a lot of losers today.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #277,120
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:11am Aug 2, 2010 11:11am
Quoting sisse
I don't use indicators. But 9 consecutive Higher Highs (and 9 out of 10 green bars in any timeframe in any market is overbought in my book. Only once in the last 10 weeks price have managed to barely break the lows when it broke the downtrend.

A +1300 pips/ticks move without even one weekly retrace is overbought mania in any chart. Does it mean it has to go down now? no not all as a previous poster mentioned. It simply testing all those untested "virgin POCs" (in market profile terms). I don't have any overbought/oversold zones by indicator...
We do see things in different ways but in my perpective the market only gets overbought/oversold when there is no balance between buyers and sellers. The fact is that there is still balance between buyers and sellers. Also, a lot institutional traders only started to believe in the end of the bear trend 2 weeks ago (after 200 MA cross) and that is causing a reverse in their positions portfolio.
I don't think there is retracements based on the weekly chart. But who knows. You might be right.
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