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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,261
  • Aug 2, 2010 3:27am Aug 2, 2010 3:27am
Quoting Patience
That's interesting. I tend to forget that people have different charts depending on their broker.

This is what I saw on my daily.

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this is not MT4 .. or is it ..?
  • #17,262
  • Aug 2, 2010 4:34am Aug 2, 2010 4:34am
Quoting TheArcher
this is not MT4 .. or is it ..?
It's Netdania.com. This was my MT4 daily. I don't know about my MT4 though. Nearly all of 2004 data is missing for USD/JPY except for January 2004. That makes me trust it a lot

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,263
  • Aug 2, 2010 5:04am Aug 2, 2010 5:04am
I realise that it's 'early days' yet, and that this is an H1 chart and an H8 or Daily would be better......but....stranger things have happened
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,264
  • Aug 2, 2010 9:58am Aug 2, 2010 9:58am
Strange action on the U/J today. S&P up over 20 points, US manufacturing data beat all expectations and then the U/J actually goes in the red. I really think something big is going to happen one way or the other.
  • #17,265
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:23am Aug 2, 2010 10:23am
yen realy... realy strong...
us-yen wont go up if there is not any intervene from BOJ..
let's be patient.... hope it wont break 86,00
next friday is non farming payrolls.... scary....
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,266
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:09am Aug 2, 2010 11:09am
never anticipated the break down
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  • #17,267
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:18am Aug 2, 2010 11:18am
.
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  • #17,268
  • Aug 2, 2010 11:19am Aug 2, 2010 11:19am
Quoting TheArcher
never anticipated the break down
My guess is the recent action has more to do with weakness in the Dollar Index than any risk aversion. DX is flirting with its 200MA, which could lead to a large bounce.
http://image.minyanville.com/assets/...1280756812.jpg
  • #17,269
  • Aug 2, 2010 1:51pm Aug 2, 2010 1:51pm
Is this pair really worth all this combined brain power? High hopes of a move either way. Real conviction and lines all over the place. Honestly. Just move on I suppose. Here's a chart of a waste of time.

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Gone to a better place
  • #17,270
  • Aug 2, 2010 2:28pm Aug 2, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting smikester
Is this pair really worth all this combined brain power? High hopes of a move either way. Real conviction and lines all over the place. Honestly. Just move on I suppose. Here's a chart of a waste of time.

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lol i know what you mean......im only buying this pair @ 80 with stops below 79 for an open target.....that takes a lot of headaches away and figured i can gain 4.5 more hours of sleep a week if I dont trade this pair
  • #17,271
  • Aug 2, 2010 2:30pm Aug 2, 2010 2:30pm
Somebody is buying bonds..us and jpy..and alot of them...keeping bond prices firm..and keeping our fav pair from going anywhere.

Which in todays risk on market makes no sense.
  • #17,272
  • Aug 2, 2010 2:34pm Aug 2, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting svtnick
Somebody is buying bonds..us and jpy..and alot of them...keeping bond prices firm..and keeping our fav pair from going anywhere.

Which in todays risk on market makes no sense.


maybe theyre preparing for sept
  • #17,273
  • Aug 2, 2010 2:46pm Aug 2, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting wontfindanam
Strange action on the U/J today. S&P up over 20 points, US manufacturing data beat all expectations and then the U/J actually goes in the red. I really think something big is going to happen one way or the other.

what i don't get is why people refer to the correlation between usdjpy and S&P.

10 year treasury note makes much more sense IMO. When you think about it, yen pairs have two underlyings: flight to safety AND carry trade or the importance of yield. And that's exactly the underlyings of treasury note. So, while you might think that S&P is all about "risk on" investment, there are other factors that make the equity markets move. Right now the earnings season is on and that might have a bigger effect on the index.

If you don't believe that then look at the charts.

S&P is almost as high as it was 21th of June. If usdjpy had any significant correlation with it then it should be over 91.

Now look at the 10y note. It made a new high on last friday and so did the usdjpy (new low that is). Although, currently the usdjpy looks a bit cheap even compared to the 10y note but then again you can't expect them to move in tandem 100%.
  • #17,274
  • Aug 2, 2010 2:58pm Aug 2, 2010 2:58pm
For years bond prices and equity markets had opposite correlations (making it very easy to trade usd/jpy)..the last few years it has been a bit different....thats why there has been a huge debate over which market is right...the bond or equities markets...which market is predicting accurately. BC this correlation seems to of disappeared from US markets except on certain days, it is correct not to over analyze the correlation...but to observe the price action. Today it is obvious something is going on.....

I do suspect that USD/JPY will catch up in asia trade...just like the last time it made a move to 88. Only headline risk will prevent any catch up.
  • #17,275
  • Aug 2, 2010 3:04pm Aug 2, 2010 3:04pm
For me USDJPY is very low and i expext BOJ to react on this situaion also on this price we have clasicall Support,i dont trade on classical support but i expext this pair to go UP in next months...I am neutral on this pair but i have Buy on EURJPY from 111.00 and i waiting for 118.50 we will see..





If this can help to someone >


Chart >

Cheers

Petar
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #17,276
  • Aug 2, 2010 3:06pm Aug 2, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting svtnick
For years bond prices and equity markets had opposite correlations (making it very easy to trade usd/jpy)..the last few years it has been a bit different....thats why there has been a huge debate over which market is right...the bond or equities markets...which market is predicting accurately. BC this correlation seems to of disappeared from US markets except on certain days, it is correct not to over analyze the correlation...but to observe the price action. Today it is obvious something is going on.....

well, you said it yourself

i'm not arguing which market has better correlation, i'm simply saying WHY bond market is more logical.

Of course, there are (a lot of) times when bond and equities move correlated and there is a logical reason behind it too. But that doesn't make the usdjpy to have a logical reason to follow S&P, it still follows (ok, "follows" is not the correct word, let's say - "is correlated") the bond market (and so did/will do the S&P).
  • #17,277
  • Aug 2, 2010 3:29pm Aug 2, 2010 3:29pm
I do agree..the bond market is the more logical choice to follow when trading the usd/jpy..i watch the spread between the 2 yrs.
  • #17,278
  • Aug 2, 2010 4:01pm Aug 2, 2010 4:01pm
If what you say happens to be true then you can sell some put options on 85.00 strike price and you will benefit.
Quoting smikester
Is this pair really worth all this combined brain power? High hopes of a move either way. Real conviction and lines all over the place. Honestly. Just move on I suppose. Here's a chart of a waste of time.

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We will never forget you Karlo
  • #17,279
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:16pm Aug 2, 2010 10:16pm
Fell pretty hard on concerning AUD data. Smack dab touch of the July 16 low support, and bought based on VSA. Expecting it to bounce up to the TL, and possible further lows.
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  • #17,280
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:43pm Aug 2, 2010 10:43pm
the pressure of this chart is so strong...
if it will go up, i think this will be consolidation in the first few days.
if it will go down, it will break 86 in a short time..
Steady as the beating drum,,,
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