EURUSD

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2010-08-02_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors (01h24 CET).pdf (17.6 KB)

ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:

Immediate Range + Larger Range
USD/JPY 85.95-86.93 85.00-87.51
EUR/USD 1.2978-1.3093 1.2964-1.3106
AUD/USD 0.9019-0.9068 0.8963-0.9078
NZD/USD 0.7227-0.7286 0.7186-0.7338
GBP/USD 1.5619-1.5733 1.5543-1.5816
USD/CHF 1.0358-1.0465 1.0127-1.0579
USD/CAD 1.0260-1.0375 1.0249-1.0395
EUR/JPY 111.99-113.28 111.55-114.22
EUR/GBP 0.8300-0.8379 0.8288-0.8395

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate amid broad-based USD weakness (ICE spot dollar index settled down 0.119% Friday at 81.539) as speculation of resumption of quantitative easing by U.S. Federal Reserve Aug. 10 increases after below-forecast 2.4% U.S. 2Q GDP growth (vs +2.5% expected) & dovish comments from Fed's Bullard again Friday supporting revival of central bank's security-purchase program to avoid Japan-like deflationary trap. USD/JPY also undermined by Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields. But USD/JPY downside limited by USD demand for import settlements, fear of Japan official jawboning against further JPY strength, surprise jump in ISM-Chicago business barometer to 62.3 in July from 59.1 in June (vs forecast for fall to 56.0), better-than-expected University of Michigan July confidence index of 67.8 (vs 67.2 forecast). No strong cue for yen carry trades from Wall Street Friday after U.S. stocks closed mixed (DJIA down 0.01%, Nasdaq up 0.13%); still, investor fear gauge VIX eased 2.61% to 23.5. China's PMI data released Sunday shows manufacturing index fell to 51.2 in July from 52.1 in June, but still in expansionary territory & wasn't as bad as some had feared. Data focus: 1400 GMT U.S. July ISM manufacturing PMI, June construction spending, 1415 GMT Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks. USD/JPY daily chart mixed as stochastics bearish, MACD still in bullish mode. Support at 85.95 (8-month low set Friday); breach would expose downside to psychological 85.00, then 84.81 (Nov. 27 bottom). Resistance at 86.93 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 87.51 (Thursday's high), then 88.11 (Wednesday's high), 88.43 (July 15 high) and 89.11-89.15 band (July 14 high-July 12 high).


EUR/USD - to consolidate. Pair supported by negative USD sentiment, easing concerns over euro-zone's sovereign-debt crisis & region's banking sector. But EUR sentiment dented by weak German June retail sales (fell 0.9% on month vs 0.3% decline expected). Data focus: 0755 GMT German July manufacturing PMI, 0800 GMT euro-zone July manufacturing PMI. EUR/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish at overbought. Support at 1.2978 (Friday's low, matching Thursday's low); breach would target 1.2964 (Wednesday's low), then 1.2949 (Tuesday's low), 1.2874 (July 26 low) and 1.2791 (July 23 low). Resistance at 1.3093 (Friday's high), then at 1.3106 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.3124 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of 1.5144-1.1875 Nov. 25-June 7 decline), then 1.3342 (April 30 reaction high).

Better odds than Russian Roulette.

Today, Jay feels like a smurf

Roulette is easy, its a 48,65% chance for red or black.


in Forex its only 5 %

good stuff jay! thanks

I'm looking for 1.300 for first support!

what about 1,305 on 15 min?

just shorted G/J from 136.20 w/ a 90 pip stop

curios about 3085.. high atm 3082

I'm looking at a false breakout on the 15 min. 4 hour has a set up similar to a pattern that I see often on the dj and eu. that 4 hour bar to 1.300 will be retraced. This pa is reminding me of May 1st. I have 1.3100 as Hard resrirtance.

do or die for bears... its already below a major fib.

Good posts you put up over the weekend. Like you said, do or die time for the bears.

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2010-08-02 _ zigzagtracktracer (02h00 CET) EUR-USD weekly _ 000.GIF (30.0 KB)


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2010-08-02 _ zigzagtracktracer (03h11 CET) EUR-USD daily _ 000.GIF (30.5 KB)


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/gif.gif

2010-08-02 _ zigzagtracktracer (03h16 CET) EUR-USD 480min _ 000.GIF (28.8 KB)


EUR/USD - to consolidate. Pair supported by negative USD sentiment, easing concerns over euro-zone's sovereign-debt crisis & region's banking sector. But EUR sentiment dented by weak German June retail sales (fell 0.9% on month vs 0.3% decline expected). Data focus: 0755 GMT German July manufacturing PMI, 0800 GMT euro-zone July manufacturing PMI. EUR/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish at overbought. Support at 1.2978 (Friday's low, matching Thursday's low); breach would target 1.2964 (Wednesday's low), then 1.2949 (Tuesday's low), 1.2874 (July 26 low) and 1.2791 (July 23 low). Resistance at 1.3093 (Friday's high), then at 1.3106 (Thursday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.3124 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of 1.5144-1.1875 Nov. 25-June 7 decline), then 1.3342 (April 30 reaction high).


There are certain divergences to be observed in DAILY CHART and in H8 graphic views...

This might act as an early indicator - that the market could see some corrective consolidation action to the downside soon...


bibib

question for anyone who can help......


im currently connected to the internet but a lot of programs(internet explorer, chrome, cant login to tradestation) wont work for me. What could be causing this and how do i fix it?

What do you mean by can't login? What if any error messages do you get?

How did you post this.

Are you getting any Error messages?

any exact digit number seems to create quite a resistance. .3000 was a tough nut to crack too.

Playing catchup on the forum.. Jay..Where do you find this stuff man? Hilarious.

Have you restarted your modem/router yet? Just turn it off a few minutes and then turn it on again , disconnect the router from the electrical power...

Check the firewall options if you have one (you should).

How do you know that you are connected to internet?

Anyone from Beirut/Lebanon in here...?

Going to be tranfered to Lebanon and I am worried about the speed of the internet in there.. have been told 1Mb is the max you can get!

Meta 4 is not going to work.

time will tell