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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,241
  • Aug 1, 2010 1:33pm Aug 1, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting Patience
Don't worry about it - neither am I I'm not saying we aren't going to see intraday movements to the upside but I don't think the market has finished with the downside. I don't know when we will see more downside but as I posted earlier given the decreasing bond yields and the indice rally on low volume, something has to be resolved and for me, it's an indice sell-off and more downside for USD/JPY. We coud meander around these levels for August and then have the sell off in September. Who knows. I surely don't.

It's just that I see some posters...
  • #17,242
  • Aug 1, 2010 2:57pm Aug 1, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting uraceulose
I don't think it's unrealistic to expect 125 within 6-8 months. this is why i'm long is this is what I mean by RRR. i'll still have my long going atm, not as good as RJ's though..

edit: Patience, that one chart you posted with the mirror image of the DXY and the YEN...can you put any two given pairs on that chart in line and candlestick? What about UJ line and UJ candlestick live at the same time?

Thank you,

Donnie
It's great how we all see things differently. That's what makes a market. Do you have any reasons other than RRR? May I ask what your pain threshold or stop is? Are you expecting Bernanke to make a shock announcement that interest rates are to rise like soon? Or a mass exodus from treasuries to be then pumped into the stock market? Or are your longer term charts looking bullish? You are talking a near 4000 point rally in 6-8 months. Do you know what the average yearly range is on UJ? In 2008, when risk was off it didn't even do 2,500 pips. You must be expecting a blow out couple of quarters in global growth. Beers on me if your target is reached

Unfortunately, you can't put the same instrument twice on the chart. Only a different instrument can be overlaid.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,243
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:48pm Aug 1, 2010 3:48pm
Quoting Patience
An increase in risk aversion usually translates into dollar and Yen strength.
Usually it does ... however the BoJ has been talking about weakening the Yen which is why I left it out.

My point is that with a risk in risk aversion, on top of BoJ intervention to weaken the Yen, that will likely translate into USDJPY moving upward.
  • #17,244
  • Aug 1, 2010 4:36pm Aug 1, 2010 4:36pm
Some great information is coming out in this thread lately.....I'm learning heaps....thanks everyone.

Here is a snippet of info from DailyFX:

"With regards to price action, the USDJPY has extended its two day decline to reach the lowest level since November 30th. Looking ahead, the pair may continue to trend lower to test pivot support at 85.59. At the same time, it is noteworthy that our speculative sentiment index now stands at 5.34, signaling for further declines. However, investors should not rule out spite to the upside in the near term on the back of a possible BoJ FX intervention, which has been rumored in the markets recently. Conversely, a senior official of a panel of Japan’s ruling Democratic Party said that a strong yen should be dealt with not by currency invention but by further monetary easing. All in all, bias in the USDJPY remains to the downside in the short-term, however, investors should caution holding onto a short position for an extended period of time as a correction to the upside seems inevitable. -MW"

Source
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,245
  • Aug 1, 2010 4:42pm Aug 1, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting Patience
...
I agree! Good for me also to see opposing views.

My other reasons are based on for one, I don't see the yen as a risk aversion currency...markets disagree with me for now. What I mean by this is...what makes it a safe haven or strong currency? (banking, commodities or manufacturing)...they are losing manufacturing share by the day(we all are to China/india) and in my opinion this is the saving grace.
I see the EU/UJ correlation coming back to how it was 6-8 months ago...when EU bank problems round two pops up. I also do see US rates rising sooner than most expect, I took a bet eariler this year with Sky that US would raise rates if only nominally by the end of this calender year...I'll prolly lose that bet now though. I'm running a 60 pip stop atm. 85.60 and I'll be out on this one, if we get a spike up..Ill move to BE. I also just have a feeling the problems in Japan are worse than meets the eye...20 yr depression, a lot is hidden I'm sure due to them only selling their bonds domestically??
  • #17,246
  • Aug 1, 2010 4:46pm Aug 1, 2010 4:46pm
also on dailyfx...

USD/JPY: The latest round of setbacks below 87.00 have been very well supported and daily studies have now turned up from oversold levels with the market looking like it wants to carve out a base. Look for additional gains over the coming sessions back towards 89.15, with a break of this level to likely accelerate gains and force a more material shift in the structure. However, a close back below 86.25 would negate and shift focus back towards the multi-year lows by 84.80.

Read more: Forex @ DailyFX - USD/JPY Classical 07.29 http://new.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...#ixzz0vORCgimr

Quoting realjumper
Some great information is coming out in this thread lately.....I'm learning heaps....thanks everyone.

Quoting realjumper

Here is a snippet of info from DailyFX:

"[color=black][font=Verdana]With regards to price action, the USDJPY has extended its two day decline to reach the lowest level since November 30th. Looking ahead, the pair may continue to trend lower to test pivot support at 85.59. At the same time, it is noteworthy that our speculative sentiment index now stands at 5.34, signaling for further declines. However, investors...
  • #17,247
  • Aug 1, 2010 4:50pm Aug 1, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting StarChild
also on dailyfx...
[left][color=#000000]USD/JPY: The latest round of setbacks below 87.00 have been very well supported and daily studies have now turned up from oversold levels with the market looking like it wants to carve out a base. Look for additional gains over the coming sessions back towards 89.15, with a break of this level to likely accelerate gains and force a more material shift in the structure. However, a close back below 86.25 would negate and shift focus back towards the multi-year lows by 84.80.
Be aware though, a (daily) close below 86.25 is very easily possible
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,248
  • Aug 1, 2010 4:56pm Aug 1, 2010 4:56pm
You are very right!!!
Quoting realjumper
Be aware though, a (daily) close below 86.25 is very easily possible
  • #17,249
  • Aug 1, 2010 4:57pm Aug 1, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting uraceulose
I also just have a feeling the problems in Japan are worse than meets the eye...20 yr depression, a lot is hidden I'm sure due to them only selling their bonds domestically??
I think so too man.....there is a lot hidden, and this is the Japanese way. 'Saving Face' is damn near the most important thing in their culture.....a loss of face causes all manner of things, suicides included. For this reason they will do whatever it takes to keep things looking 'normal', but the problem with that is that when (and if) they fail (to arrest the climbing of the Yen), the crash will be severe.

Hopefully they can turn this around relatively smoothly and save their economy from a disaster.....but....they have to get the Yen down somehow if their export led recovery is to gain any traction.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,250
  • Aug 1, 2010 4:58pm Aug 1, 2010 4:58pm
Short term reversal patterns: Hourly diamond (skewed reverse head and shoulders) as pointed out by previous judicious poster (TheArcher), H4 megaphone pattern starting at 16th July with an initial target of 89.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy100801h4meg.gif Size: 14 KB



I don't take the fundamentals on board as this is no longer a carry pair - both will rise in an equity sell off.

Bank of Japan may also fuel this reversal but as another poster rightly said, there is only so much available to prop up the dollar, so my opinion is bullish short term, well, till 90.
Gone to a better place
  • #17,251
  • Edited 10:38pm Aug 1, 2010 10:26pm | Edited 10:38pm
Quoting smikester
Short term reversal patterns: Hourly diamond (skewed reverse head and shoulders) as pointed out by previous judicious poster (TheArcher), H4 megaphone pattern starting at 16th July with an initial target of 89.


Attachment


I don't take the fundamentals on board as this is no longer a carry pair - both will rise in an equity sell off.

Bank of Japan may also fuel this reversal but as another poster rightly said, there is only so much available to prop up the dollar, so my opinion is bullish short term, well, till 90.
interesting megaphone pattern you mentioned.. i'm new at this pattern, did some research just now... is the picture below where you see price unfolding smikester??

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_8texnURUcC...one_bottom.jpg
  • #17,252
  • Aug 1, 2010 10:36pm Aug 1, 2010 10:36pm
hourly

will it break the 86.70 (based on macd , note also the the less volatile candles )?

or

range between 86.70 and 86.25 for sometime (based on stocs) ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #17,253
  • Aug 1, 2010 10:39pm Aug 1, 2010 10:39pm
Daily

Doji followed by bullish candle ... may lead to more bullsihness ?

stocs gives a hint of brightness ..
Attached Image
  • #17,254
  • Aug 1, 2010 10:43pm Aug 1, 2010 10:43pm
Quoting smikester
Short term reversal patterns: Hourly diamond (skewed reverse head and shoulders) as pointed out by previous judicious poster (TheArcher), H4 megaphone pattern starting at 16th July with an initial target of 89.

thanks for the compliments and encouragement
  • #17,255
  • Aug 1, 2010 10:54pm Aug 1, 2010 10:54pm
The Archer.....you have email
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,256
  • Aug 1, 2010 11:58pm Aug 1, 2010 11:58pm
Quoting TheArcher
Daily

Doji followed by bullish candle ... may lead to more bullsihness ?

stocs gives a hint of brightness ..
That's interesting. I tend to forget that people have different charts depending on their broker.

This is what I saw on my daily.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj-daily-2aug.png Size: 32 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,257
  • Aug 2, 2010 12:04am Aug 2, 2010 12:04am
Quoting Patience
That's interesting. I tend to forget that people have different charts depending on their broker.

This is what I saw on my daily.

Attachment
We could see newer lows if PMI comes below 50 tomorrow, definitively a good trade right there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot_001.png Size: 26 KB
  • #17,258
  • Aug 2, 2010 12:39am Aug 2, 2010 12:39am
PMI below 50 is not going to happen. Forget it.
  • #17,259
  • Aug 2, 2010 12:44am Aug 2, 2010 12:44am
With the yen still hovering near last week's eight-month peak against the dollar and getting close to a 15-year peak, Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Monday that excessive currency moves are undesirable and can have a negative impact on the economy.

Market players have said they do not seriously expect Japanese authorities to intervene to stem yen strength until it rises to 15-year highs.

Japanese authorities will likely turn to further Bank of Japan liquidity provision steps or monetary easing before considering any yen-selling intervention, which they last conducted in March 2004, market players said.

Traders and analysts say Japanese authorities may consider currency intervention only if the yen's rise gains more speed and Tokyo shares slide.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE67104520100802
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,260
  • Aug 2, 2010 1:27am Aug 2, 2010 1:27am
Quoting Patience
With the yen still hovering near last week's eight-month peak against the dollar and getting close to a 15-year peak, Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Monday that excessive currency moves are undesirable and can have a negative impact on the economy.

Market players have said they do not seriously expect Japanese authorities to intervene to stem yen strength until it rises to 15-year highs.

Japanese...
Yes, I read that too.....I wonder if this guy has a degree in rocket science?....surely it would be needed in order to arrive at such a conclusion!!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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