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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,221
  • Jul 31, 2010 11:06am Jul 31, 2010 11:06am
Quoting auxesis
fwiw,
hmm ... interesting 4hr chart ..it it setting me to think ..

what if it is bear flag ... will it follow ur lines down ...but that is a strong support ..?

anything is possible ... be prepared ...anticipate ... but follow what the market tells u ..
  • #17,222
  • Jul 31, 2010 12:37pm Jul 31, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting TheArcher
a bit excited .... is this a "Diamond Reversal " in the making ?

though it is rare and it is happening at the bottom of the recent trend (top is prefered) ... worth keeping in mind , i suppose ..
Aren't these usually bearish in nature? Meaning they usually occur at the top of a trend?
  • #17,223
  • Jul 31, 2010 11:03pm Jul 31, 2010 11:03pm
Quoting auxesis
fwiw,
thats an interesting analysis you have pointed out
  • #17,224
  • Edited Aug 1, 2010 10:04am Jul 31, 2010 11:23pm | Edited Aug 1, 2010 10:04am
Quoting melvyn
Aren't these usually bearish in nature? Meaning they usually occur at the top of a trend?
glad that u are very alert

yes , u are right , but there are other schools of thought that think that it might work at the bottom too , of course, less severely so ... just google about

if u read my post carefully ... i did make a point to that effect ...

Quoting TheArcher
a bit excited .... is this a "Diamond Reversal " in the making ?

though it is rare and it is happening at the bottom of the recent trend (top is prefered) ... worth keeping in mind , i suppose ..

Quoting TheArcher

anything is possible ... be prepared ...anticipate ... but follow what the market tells u ..
  • #17,225
  • Edited 11:53pm Jul 31, 2010 11:32pm | Edited 11:53pm
Quoting TheArcher
a bit excited .... is this a "Diamond Reversal " in the making ?

though it is rare and it is happening at the bottom of the recent trend (top is prefered) ... worth keeping in mind , i suppose ..

you gotta ask, is this the bottom and is the trend over?......i dunno, but i like to think it isnt.....i have buy orders @ 8350 for a bounce and 8000 for a very lt trade. Who knows, I may just open an additional acct throw in 1-2k and only have buy orders on uj @ 80 and only use this acct to buy and hold this pair. That could make for a good long term investment, not a "trade".


i dont even think that will be the true bottom, which i think will be closer to 80 and no im not saying this is gonna happen tomorrow......this bottoming process takes time....i mean look at a monthly chart lol....were closing in on 1995 lows on this pair slowly but surely.....Were already getting close to all time lows and i think for uj to make a true rebound it will have to test those lows.
  • #17,226
  • Jul 31, 2010 11:33pm Jul 31, 2010 11:33pm
analizing last year history,
I think, it will have a fast rally up.. but i dont know when... maybe at the Non farming payroll this month?..
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #17,227
  • Jul 31, 2010 11:45pm Jul 31, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting mfoste1

i dont even think that will be the true bottom, which i think will be closer to 80
why do u think yen is strong ... is it because of weakness of US ..or something else .... care to share ..?
  • #17,228
  • Aug 1, 2010 12:01am Aug 1, 2010 12:01am
Quoting Patience
Hey RJ

Large specs have, once again, decreased their long positioning on Yen according to COT (this was reported as of Tuesday though).
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN3021117920100730
Thanks for the heads up and the link Patience.....a very interesting read. It's also interesting that what they say can be seen (to some extent) on this very forum!

I'm still trying to catch any possible bottom on this pair....I know it's a little bit silly doing that, but this pair makes it relatively pain free. I've had 3 attemps, all stopped out for a total of +100, so I'm not crying about it!! My 4th attempt is from 86.10 and is now protected, so we shall see.

I'm becoming more and more interested in COT.....thank ewe for your help
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,229
  • Aug 1, 2010 12:05am Aug 1, 2010 12:05am
Quoting TheArcher
why do u think yen is strong ... is it because of weakness of US ..or something else .... care to share ..?


japans is and has been in a deflationary death spiral for years.....theyre slowly emerging from that...

yea i think weakness will continue in the us into next year.....the only reason markets havent gone down is because of earnings buoying them. Would markets have held given earnings werent part of the picture and the economic data that has been released over the past 2 months? I highly doubt it... hell, the majority of earnings werent even that great, just wait till earnings go away and the real picture gets put on display for everyone to see....
  • #17,230
  • Aug 1, 2010 12:09am Aug 1, 2010 12:09am
Quoting mfoste1
you gotta ask, is this the bottom and is the trend over?......i dunno, but i like to think it isnt.....i have buy orders @ 8350 for a bounce and 8000 for a very lt trade. Who knows, I may just open an additional acct throw in 1-2k and only have buy orders on uj @ 80 and only use this acct to buy and hold this pair. That could make for a good long term investment, not a "trade".


i dont even think that will be the true bottom, which i think will be closer to 80 and no im not saying this is gonna happen tomorrow......this bottoming process takes...
Interesting points you make here. The reason I'm attempting to grab the bottom is for the same reason that you may open an additional account....a long term investment. I see this pair at 100+, maybe before the end of the year, maybe not. Either way, this will be my 'long term/investement' trade.

Whether we are close to the bottom or not, who knows? It may very well have a go at testing the all time low, I'm thinking that BOJ just cannot afford to let that happen.....having said that, there isn't a hell of a lot of options open to them. As Patience pointed out to me, and I agree, intervention generally speaking, doesn't work. The Swiss NB is testament to that!

This isn't my favourite pair to trade, but man, it IS interesting!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,231
  • Aug 1, 2010 12:19am Aug 1, 2010 12:19am
Quoting realjumper
Interesting points you make here. The reason I'm attempting to grab the bottom is for the same reason that you may open an additional account....a long term investment. I see this pair at 100+, maybe before the end of the year, maybe not. Either way, this will be my 'long term/investement' trade.

Whether we are close to the bottom or not, who knows? It may very well have a go at testing the all time low, I'm thinking that BOJ just cannot afford to let that happen.....[b]having said that, there isn't a hell of a lot of options open to them. As...


hehehe SNB got their azz handed to em! I think your right, when CBs try to take on the markets, the markets usually win. I think BOJ said their intervention policy will only be brought to attention and possible action if the pair nears 85.....so i say to myself, the markets are most likely to call them out on this number and test it. Then will it go lower to test BOJ more? most likely.....thats what the markets love to do, push the envelope on CB's when they make policy statements. 80 will be one helluva buy if it goes there.....

I agree with you, this pair isnt easy to trade.....its the highest intervened pair which makes it difficult. I usually only trade this pair on round numbers 87, 8750 88 etc....
  • #17,232
  • Aug 1, 2010 12:35am Aug 1, 2010 12:35am
80 certainly would be a great buy opportuniry. See this bearish Gartley on H4 which has worked well. I'm only observing the gartley patterns at this stage, rather than trading them.....but this one has worked well.....
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,233
  • Aug 1, 2010 12:56am Aug 1, 2010 12:56am
I know this is an interactive trading thread but I figured some "light" needs to be shed.

1) The BoJ has spent a fair amount of talking talking about intervention to weaken the Yen.

2) The constant bad news out of the US is going to mean economic problems elsewhere on the globe ... that means an increase in Risk Aversion which nearly always translates into dollar strength.

If you put those together, Yen weakening and USD strengthing, then it certainly looks like USDJPY should be heading upward soon.

Of course you will want to wait for price action to confirm the move, I'm not at all saying that a long should be placed on the pair for market open; I'm just saying that shorts on this pair should have relatively tight profit targets.

Once traders catch up to what's going on, USDJPY will probably take a sudden swing upward and start a trend in that direction that will likely last a few months.

(hint: I don't see any possible way a double dip recession is avoided at this point ... which spells bad news for any hope of reasonable budgets out of the US ... and that spells bad news for the dollar looking very long term)
  • #17,234
  • Aug 1, 2010 3:28am Aug 1, 2010 3:28am
Quoting TradeBoss

Of course you will want to wait for price action to confirm the move, I'm not at all saying that a long should be placed on the pair for market open; I'm just saying that shorts on this pair should have relatively tight profit targets...

...(hint: I don't see any possible way a double dip recession is avoided at this point ...
That is the way I am looking at it as well. As far as this Pair getting back to 92 + .....this is going to be a good trade.

I am starting my Long positions very slowfuly in small increments, probably very small for many of the people here. 1/2 Mini-Lot at a time.

Key levels that I am looking for this week are last weeks Highs and Lows. ( Not a strategy by any stretch of the imagination, it just happened to turn out that way. )
Last weeks Lows coincide with a very strong , IMO , support level in the vicinity of 85.80-86.00.

A meaningful move below 85.50 will not be kind to Longs.
  • #17,235
  • Aug 1, 2010 4:47am Aug 1, 2010 4:47am
Quoting TradeBoss
(2) The constant bad news out of the US is going to mean economic problems elsewhere on the globe ... that means an increase in Risk Aversion which nearly always translates into dollar strength.

If you put those together, Yen weakening and USD strengthing, then it certainly looks like USDJPY should be heading upward soon.
An increase in risk aversion usually translates into dollar and Yen strength. Please see the chart below. USDX is candlestick and Yen is line chart. In 2008, both dollar and Yen increased in value. And once again at the end of March 2010 the rally on USD/JPY ended while the US$ continued to increase in value until the end of May.

Something is not right. Bond yields in US are decreasing which apparently means smart money is running to safety and yet the indices have continued to rally albeit on low volume. If the rally in the indices is kosher then it would have been confirmed by bond yields increasing as smart money would be pulling out of treasuries and investing in the stock market. I'm expecting a good correction in the indices and more Yen strength. As to the timing, well it could be that NFP will be the trigger. And there is no way on earth that my daily, weekly or monthly U/J charts look bullish in the slightest.

Well that's what I see and I'm open to what others see

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,236
  • Aug 1, 2010 8:02am Aug 1, 2010 8:02am
Quoting Patience
An increase in risk aversion usually translates into dollar and Yen strength. Please see the chart below. USDX is candlestick and Yen is line chart. In 2008, both dollar and Yen increased in value. And once again at the end of March 2010 the rally on USD/JPY ended while the US$ continued to increase in value until the end of May.

[b]Something is not right. Bond yields in US are decreasing which apparently means smart money is running to safety and yet the indices have continued to rally albeit on low volume. If the rally in the indices is kosher...

spot on patience, spot on ......i couldnt agree with you anymore. I wish all these uj bulls would pull up a monthly chart of the pair, it might change their perception on their claims that "it hit a bottom", lol because it hasnt. Anyone who can read a chart knows this.... This rally on the equities is only fueled by low volume and mediocre earnings at best. Data this week could put the real picture on display and when they panic, and panic they may sh*t could hit the fan when vol comes back. However, there will be great lt buying opportunities in the future on this pair, now if I only knew when .....I like 80
  • #17,237
  • Aug 1, 2010 9:31am Aug 1, 2010 9:31am
Hi .... I am new to your site.. not an expert trader..so take with a grain of salt...I hope you don't mind my adding my two cents...I see the COT large traders decreasing their trade positions..the dollar index is at 0..( usually a turn around) and on the monthly chart there is wicked divergence on the MOM..I know there is resistance above at about 86.72..38% fib area 86.76 ...but as far as the monthly chart we have come back to the trend line and are retesting..we have a beautiful doji on the 12h and 4h chart ....me thinks up it...??? to the 61.8% fib retrace or so..and see??
Quoting Patience
Hey RJ

Large specs have, once again, decreased their long positioning on Yen according to COT (this was reported as of Tuesday though).

Attachment

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN3021117920100730
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usjpy month.JPG Size: 146 KB
  • #17,238
  • Aug 1, 2010 10:41am Aug 1, 2010 10:41am
Quoting melvyn
Aren't these usually bearish in nature? Meaning they usually occur at the top of a trend?

http://thepatternsite.com/diamondb.html
Attached Image
  • #17,239
  • Aug 1, 2010 12:29pm Aug 1, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting StarChild
Hi .... I am new to your site.. not an expert trader..so take with a grain of salt...I hope you don't mind my adding my two cents...I see the COT large traders decreasing their trade positions..the dollar index is at 0..( usually a turn around) and on the monthly chart there is wicked divergence on the MOM..I know there is resistance above at about 86.72..38% fib area 86.76 ...but as far as the monthly chart we have come back to the trend line and are retesting..we have a beautiful doji on the 12h and 4h chart ....me thinks up it...???...
Don't worry about it - neither am I I'm not saying we aren't going to see intraday movements to the upside but I don't think the market has finished with the downside. I don't know when we will see more downside but as I posted earlier given the decreasing bond yields and the indice rally on low volume, something has to be resolved and for me, it's an indice sell-off and more downside for USD/JPY. We coud meander around these levels for August and then have the sell off in September. Who knows. I surely don't.

It's just that I see some posters starting to set up long term buy positions on USD/JPY. I don't see too much upside yet. Given that FXCM and Oanda's clients are over 80% long I think it is fair to say that it is probably pretty much the same all over the retail forex market. I don't think the market is going to let these retail traders or the BoJ off that easily. 85.00 (to me) is basically guaranteed although I know nothing is 100% in the forex world. And I don't think it is unrealistic to expect to see 80.00. I don't feel the panic yet. I don't think we've seen capitulation yet. The BoJ hasn't even been pressured much. We're seeing verbal intervention - usually works for a while - but they won't be able to stop the indice sell off (if it happens of course) and the buying of more Yen.

So, not only are my longer term charts looking bearish, there are also other reasons why I see more downside. Let's say hello to the 1995 lows and then have another look at things. Of course, I could be totally wrong, but it's just the way I see it Well, it looks like mfoste1 is on my side so you can throw eggs at both of us if the market proves otherwise
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,240
  • Edited 1:36pm Aug 1, 2010 1:15pm | Edited 1:36pm
I don't think it's unrealistic to expect 125 within 6-8 months. this is why i'm long is this is what I mean by RRR. i'll still have my long going atm, not as good as RJ's though..

edit: Patience, that one chart you posted with the mirror image of the DXY and the YEN...can you put any two given pairs on that chart in line and candlestick? What about UJ line and UJ candlestick live at the same time?

Thank you,

Donnie
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