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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,161
  • Jul 29, 2010 11:20pm Jul 29, 2010 11:20pm
Quoting realjumper
Nissan cutting production back by 20% this year.....PMI falling.....unemployment rising......CPI declining.......Govt purchasing incentives to be lifted this year......national debt at 200% of gdp.....Yen (almost) the highest since 1994.....I could go on, but if you do the research yourself, you'll see the crisis that they are already in......
sorry imnt sure about export, but it says the japanese export rose
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...351895226.html

Err i also think the strong currency of Japan should hurt their export which is their main driven economy...

Thinking about it, if it didnt actually impact the export, then yen could go stronger..
  • #17,162
  • Jul 29, 2010 11:25pm Jul 29, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting realjumper
Nissan cutting production back by 20% this year.....PMI falling.....unemployment rising......CPI declining.......Govt purchasing incentives to be lifted this year......national debt at 200% of gdp.....Yen (almost) the highest since 1994.....I could go on, but if you do the research yourself, you'll see the crisis that they are already in......
i'm not surprised nissan cutting its production 20% as its a 'global economic crisis'.. every corporation in the world has to re-adjust to survive.

yes Japans' in a deep slump but unlike most developed countries Japan has maintained its industrial base, and has vast capital reserves, currently has a strong economic outlook.

Wish for the best in Japan, be optimistic and look for a healthy and slow recovery
  • #17,163
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:18am Jul 30, 2010 12:18am
Quoting realjumper
Japan IS in a big crisis....boj just refuses to accept it. Debt at 200% of gdp, rising unemployment etc etc. Japan MUST export to make money....how can they export with such a high valued Yen????

The only reason that Japan hasn't been downgraded like Greece, Portugal etc is because they sell their bonds on the domestic market....but.....sooner or later they will be forced to sell on the world market, and then the whole house of cards will come tumbling down. To avoid that, they must act strongly NOW......but they aren't/won't/can't........
I'm trying another long term long here..target is now 100 plus, stop is below 86. i could be too early or i'm at the very bottom...either way, this thing is heading up imo
  • #17,164
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:28am Jul 30, 2010 12:28am
Quoting uraceulose
I'm trying another long term long here..target is now 100 plus, stop is below 86. i could be too early or i'm at the very bottom...either way, this thing is heading up imo
how can you be so sure?? the news says that they are not gonna do intervention as it is no necessary. The yen strength is because of the us economy recovery that is slowing down.

Anyway the title was "japan unlikely to take action to sell jpy"
  • #17,165
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:44am Jul 30, 2010 12:44am
Quoting cien_47k
how can you be so sure?? the news says that they are not gonna do intervention as it is no necessary. The yen strength is because of the us economy recovery that is slowing down.

Anyway the title was "japan unlikely to take action to sell jpy"
I'm not sure...the fact is the pair is in a huge down trend and my trade is counter to this fact..trade your plan. i am in green pips already tho..not protected pips so it don't matter but I got a reaction. the news is created to push the price where they want it, the guys that own the station that run the news(the commercials you see) ..the talking heads for the guys that own them...they give some announcement looking for a pre-set reaction..sometimes they are dead wrong. i would argue most are wrong most of the time, i see more news come out after the fact explaining why what just happened happened, not before. dow drops on "fill in the blank"...it's immediately after the bad Cisco news or whatever...dow drops on "blank" but you don't see that release till after the fall..or in the middle when the spread is crazy anyway....or after market close
Japan is in deep shit and they're problems have been pushed under the rug while we're dealing with EU/US...Asia is next. I still say dollar is safe haven, the ships in the harbor example yesterday by Gator was great and as usual got me thinking..I forgot what thread this was and realize you didn't see that post...it was basically to the effect of how the US still protects everyone with our military(everyone who shares the big dogs' same goals)...we hurt our own economy by spending so much doing this. smart money knows this...we've pumped billions into other economies for awhile now, if we stop, it hurts everyone else just as bad or worse.
  • #17,166
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:45am Jul 30, 2010 12:45am
Quoting IdentifyTren
i'm not surprised nissan cutting its production 20% as its a 'global economic crisis'.. every corporation in the world has to re-adjust to survive.

yes Japans' in a deep slump but unlike most developed countries Japan has maintained its industrial base, and has vast capital reserves, currently has a strong economic outlook.

Wish for the best in Japan, be optimistic and look for a healthy and slow recovery
I too wish the best for Japan, but I have to disagree with you.

Japan is not in a 'deep slump'....it is in deep shit.....the deepest of all the deveoped world. Yes it has maintained it's industrial base, but, who will buy their end products? Who can afford to? USA?, EU?....I don't think so. Why not? Because the Yen being so strong prices their end products consequently being so expensive....AND...the fact that USA and EU is itself in the shit and therefore is trying to import less, added to that, the unemployment of those two regions means that people don't want to/cannot, spend up large on Japanese imports!!

It's true that, as you say, every corporation has to adjust, however a 20% cut in production (for Nissan alone) is a monumental cut, which will increase unemployment, and therefore more government spending on social security etc.

If Japans very fragile economic recovery is to succeed, it will be lead soley by cost effective and competetive exports. That in turn will depend on demand. So, less demand = less exports. Less exports = less income. Less income = slower or worse recovery. They are already suffering deflation which on it's own is crippling.

Now, add to that the 200% of gdp debt, higher unemployment, a way overvalued Yen, and direct competition from China and Korea, things aren't looking too good for Japan.

The Yen must fall to a more respectable level if Japans exports are going to be able to be competetive on the world market.....that's for certain. The manufacturers are already screaming at the govt to act because the high Yen is killing them.

If Japan is forced to sell their bonds on the world stage, as I said already, the whole house of cards will come tumbling down.

The longer the BOJ procrastinates and continues to fail at 'talking down the Yen', the worse this will become. Quite where the 'line in the sand' is for the Yen, who knows? Previously it has been 85.00. If it continues to hover between 86 and 88, I suggest that things will not improve for Japan, and they may well put themselves perilously close to a genuine economic meltdown.

I hope that doesn't happen.....the ball is firmly in the court of the BOJ. They need to lead, not procrastinate.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,167
  • Jul 30, 2010 12:49am Jul 30, 2010 12:49am
Quoting uraceulose
I'm trying another long term long here..target is now 100 plus, stop is below 86. i could be too early or i'm at the very bottom...either way, this thing is heading up imo
Same here man. My second attempt at the long term got stopped at +50...again!! I'm back in at 86.30.....sl now at be
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,168
  • Jul 30, 2010 1:15am Jul 30, 2010 1:15am
Quoting realjumper
Same here man. My second attempt at the long term got stopped at +50...again!! I'm back in at 86.30.....sl now at be
same here too.. i have 2 longs at 88 level. I should have SL previously.. but i still believe that its quite cheap to keep it on hold.. expecting the yen to go above 90 especially hoping for the intervention..

But seems the finance minister is hard headed...
  • #17,169
  • Jul 30, 2010 1:20am Jul 30, 2010 1:20am
Quoting cien_47k
same here too.. i have 2 longs at 88 level. I should have SL previously.. but i still believe that its quite cheap to keep it on hold.. expecting the yen to go above 90 especially hoping for the intervention..

But seems the finance minister is hard headed...
I'm sure 90 will come....don't know when though. I see the previous short-term high of 88.10 as the place that will hold up any rally.

Another reason for this taking so long is that every man and his dog is long on this pair....that's sure to be holding things up at the moment
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,170
  • Jul 30, 2010 1:48am Jul 30, 2010 1:48am
Quoting MisterTrader
1) China is buying JPY bonds in the last couple of weeks in order to diversify away from USD and EUR
2) Retail traders are long USD/JPY in a relation 1:5 - means professionals are betting for further JPY strength !

Expectation : either stable USD/JPY prices or falling.
Expect USD/JPY to fall below 86.00 soon. No interventions from BOJ in sight...
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,171
  • Jul 30, 2010 2:39am Jul 30, 2010 2:39am
hi realjumper ,

need ur help with the pivot points

just checking :

the attachment contains the pivot points and s & r based on US daily from 29th July 2010 midnight to 30th July midnight .

is this the correct pivot points that were calculated with H, L and C ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pivot01.jpg Size: 79 KB
  • #17,172
  • Jul 30, 2010 2:54am Jul 30, 2010 2:54am
Quoting MisterTrader
Expect USD/JPY to fall below 86.00 soon. No interventions from BOJ in sight...
Crazy yen... yeah i guees proffesional are betting on shorts... its a bit risky tho.. we'll never know when the intervention will come... im confused of what to do now hehehe..
  • #17,173
  • Jul 30, 2010 2:56am Jul 30, 2010 2:56am
Quoting TheArcher
hi realjumper ,

need ur help with the pivot points

just checking :

the attachment contains the pivot points and s & r based on US daily from 29th July 2010 midnight to 30th July midnight .

is this the correct pivot points that were calculated with H, L and C ?
Hi TheArcher & realjumper...

What do you guys reckon with the yen movement?
  • #17,174
  • Jul 30, 2010 3:01am Jul 30, 2010 3:01am
Quoting TheArcher
hi realjumper ,

need ur help with the pivot points

just checking :

the attachment contains the pivot points and s & r based on US daily from 29th July 2010 midnight to 30th July midnight .

is this the correct pivot points that were calculated with H, L and C ?
That's close to what I have...there will always be slight variation depending on the broker. Here's another one that's useful, but not exact to your calculations or to my indicator.....but it's close.

http://www.pivotfarm.com/pivot-points.php
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,175
  • Jul 30, 2010 3:11am Jul 30, 2010 3:11am
Quoting cien_47k
Hi TheArcher & realjumper...

What do you guys reckon with the yen movement?
Well I'm not trying any shorts from here. I have had 3 longs stopped out as I try to get the bottom....2 stopped at +50, and stopped a short while ago at break even.

The trend is impossible to ignore, and it shouldn't be ignored. But given that Japan is 'concerned' about the high value of the Yen, and that they have intervened in the past, I am not keen to go short....at all. Instead I am buying of the bottom of any dips, with a very tight stop loss, and getting the SL to break even (+spread) as soon as practically possible.

Then USD/JPY has only been lower than it currently is in December 2008 and January 2009.....and again in 1995. My chart doesn't go back past April 1988.

There's no reason that it can't keep on going down, but will the BOJ let it?

Having said that, I am carefully buying the dips at the moment, even though such a practice is against the trend
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,176
  • Jul 30, 2010 3:15am Jul 30, 2010 3:15am
Quoting realjumper
Well I'm not trying any shorts from here. I have had 3 longs stopped out as I try to get the bottom....2 stopped at +50, and stopped a short while ago at break even.

The trend is impossible to ignore, and it shouldn't be ignored. But given that Japan is 'concerned' about the high value of the Yen, and that they have intervened in the past, I am not keen to go short....at all. Instead I am buying of the bottom of any dips, with a very tight stop loss, and getting the SL to break even (+spread) as soon as practically possible.

Then USD/JPY has...
Im with you, sounds reasonable.. lets see how it goes.
  • #17,177
  • Jul 30, 2010 3:55am Jul 30, 2010 3:55am
Japanese Deputy Finance Minister Motohisa Ikeda said on Friday said that he was watching the yen's rise with interest after the Japanese currency climbed to an eight-month high against the dollar. "I will not comment on levels but generally speaking, I'm worried about the impact it may have on Japanese exporters, which have been a driving force (for the economy)," he told Reuters Full Story
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,178
  • Jul 30, 2010 4:43am Jul 30, 2010 4:43am
Quoting realjumper
Japanese Deputy Finance Minister Motohisa Ikeda said on Friday said that he was watching the yen's rise with interest after the Japanese currency climbed to an eight-month high against the dollar. "I will not comment on levels but generally speaking, I'm worried about the impact it may have on Japanese exporters, which have been a driving force (for the economy)," he told Reuters Full Story
I hope he takes action soon!! if it breaks 86 i will SL for 1 long position.. getting a bit scared of crazy downturn.
  • #17,179
  • Jul 30, 2010 4:55am Jul 30, 2010 4:55am
Quoting cien_47k
I hope he takes action soon!! if it breaks 86 i will SL for 1 long position.. getting a bit scared of crazy downturn.
86 is a nice round number, and the monthly pivot is at 86.04 so it may take a bit of force to break it.....good luck
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,180
  • Jul 30, 2010 4:55am Jul 30, 2010 4:55am
Quoting realjumper
Well I'm not trying any shorts from here. I have had 3 longs stopped out as I try to get the bottom....2 stopped at +50, and stopped a short while ago at break even.

The trend is impossible to ignore, and it shouldn't be ignored. But given that Japan is 'concerned' about the high value of the Yen, and that they have intervened in the past, I am not keen to go short....at all. Instead I am buying of the bottom of any dips, with a very tight stop loss, and getting the SL to break even (+spread) as soon as practically possible.

Then USD/JPY has...
BOJ will intervene, i m sure of it.. but the question is "when"...
It will rebound like last time...
I hope not until we broke... I inject money again just now, hoping the price wont go below 83... and will not like throwing salt in the sea..
Steady as the beating drum,,,
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