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  • #276,221
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:20am Jul 29, 2010 8:20am
Intraday looks very tired and without reports, there is one last attempt today to move up. A daily high at +/-1.3090 is around the corner. Closing all after US opening decide the faith of the pair for the day.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #276,222
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:20am Jul 29, 2010 8:20am
Again...every one wants to short including me)
  • #276,223
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:21am Jul 29, 2010 8:21am
Quoting Atlast
when it trades above R2, chances increase R3 is reached. As far as i can determine, it's clearing some important stops, market still too one sided in correlated pairs. I am positioning for the eventual downmove, but my risk level will be different to yours.
i see.. u use pivots, just plotted them. A nice movement around these levels will put them in further in my charts.

as i see a nice momentum is building up...
  • #276,224
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:24am Jul 29, 2010 8:24am
Still hasn't touched 50% fib on USDX (from the recent rally). I've seen different lows quoted on charts so I've got it anywhere between 81.43-81.46. The market has shown me time and time again that it likes to be precise. We are at 81.58 at the moment. 1.31 is a nice round number and also monthly R3.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #276,225
  • Edited 8:27am Jul 29, 2010 8:26am | Edited 8:27am
Quoting dbfusion
IMO

3106 will be good place to start shorting .

till 3200

and hold for a move back to 2900

a week or so .
If I had to choose a spot for a possible short entry, it would be at 3130....the 38.2 fib
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #276,226
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:29am Jul 29, 2010 8:29am
Bull strong but after H1 buy set up perfection pullback there but may not sufficient & so expection more up & then a good pullback again before resume . Aka'a megaphone pattern may come effects.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #276,227
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:30am Jul 29, 2010 8:30am
Lol ...In what planet do you leave men ?...

EU GDP $16.447 trillion (2009)
US GDP $14,256, trillion (2009)

sisse


Quoting nextlevel
u need to be extremely careful , it is just too early to claim you are right.short is sure the way to go now, the european economy is smaller and the impact on it will be much higher than the us economy
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #276,228
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:31am Jul 29, 2010 8:31am
Quoting realjumper
I tend to agree about the eventual downmove, but I have trouble finding anything fundamental to back it up with. The only reason I see for a downmove is purely because we are well past the date for a substancial retrace.....
fundamentally, we have had the euro talked up for some time, before and after the stress test. German banks still haven't made full disclosure. Sovereign buying has been sustaining the euro along with short covering to remove the positions held by the large speculators.

US economy is far from out of the woods, and quantitaive easing is back on the agenda, with no imminent rate hike. UK may see more quantitaive easing, and no rate hike. All signs point to a weakening global economy. China purposely weakened their growth, though still very up, to avoid blow out.
The dollar is still reserve currency, and the order of the day should be risk aversion. Is the euro the currency to replace the dollar. China has been busy, but they have reduced their holdings of US treasuries significantly. Who's holding those, UK. Where is the risk greatest.
Spain will be under pressure. If you were a hedge fund, knowing these things, which way would you play with your investor's money. Risk or no-risk. Now, the COT data shows fairly neutral position on Euro, there has to be some big bets soon. Which way will it be, and at what level. Contrary to popular belief, big money sells on the way up, and buys on the way down, when positioning.

The day is young, but it feel like end of the week.
  • #276,229
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:32am Jul 29, 2010 8:32am
Quoting realjumper
If I had to choose a spot for a possible short entry, it would be at 3130....the 38.2 fib
which is 20 pips away from my call

actually my call based on daily 38fib @3140 and 4H 127fib @ 3106 and 161fib @ 3200 to confirm a daily 38fib brake above that level .


that's why I mention start shorting , coz I expect the up move to keep going
and short it on batches.

thats said imho
I SEE YOU !!
  • #276,230
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:33am Jul 29, 2010 8:33am
Quoting Norok
........Just got into Forex 2 months ago. This morning was my first live trade and it went extremely well!................
Luke: Got 'im! I got 'im!
Han Solo: Great, kid. Don't get cocky
  • #276,231
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:36am Jul 29, 2010 8:36am
Quoting Atlast
fundamentally, we have had the euro talked up for some time, before and after the stress test. German banks still haven't made full disclosure. Sovereign buying has been sustaining the euro along with short covering to remove the positions held by the large speculators.

US economy is far from out of the woods, and quantitaive easing is back on the agenda, with no imminent rate hike. UK may see more quantitaive easing, and no rate hike. All signs point to a weakening global economy. China purposely weakened their growth, though still very up, to...
I agree that it's a mess.....USA debt....Japan debt.....EU debt.....it's not looking realy good, to say the least!

You're right about 'talking up the Euro', I bet the Japanese are envious because their attempts at 'talking down the Yen', have failed spectacularly.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #276,232
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:39am Jul 29, 2010 8:39am
Quoting dbfusion
which is 20 pips away from my call

actually my call based on daily 38fib @3140 and 4H 127fib @ 3106 and 161fib @ 3200 to confirm a daily 38fib brake above that level .


that's why I mention start shorting , coz I expect the up move to keep going
and short it on batches.

thats said imho
Yup, we're more or less on the same page. I won't be too keen to short from there though without some other confluence.....this bull run has been strong.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #276,233
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:39am Jul 29, 2010 8:39am
Quoting Patience
Still hasn't touched 50% fib on USDX (from the recent rally). I've seen different lows quoted on charts so I've got it anywhere between 81.43-81.46. The market has shown me time and time again that it likes to be precise. We are at 81.58 at the moment. 1.31 is a nice round number and also monthly R3.
BIt would be interesting to see the % of traders short from your broker's info.
  • #276,234
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:39am Jul 29, 2010 8:39am
Good post.

sisse

Quoting Atlast
fundamentally, we have had the euro talked up for some time, before and after the stress test. German banks still haven't made full disclosure. Sovereign buying has been sustaining the euro along with short covering to remove the positions held by the large speculators.

US economy is far from out of the woods, and quantitaive easing is back on the agenda, with no imminent rate hike. UK may see more quantitaive easing, and no rate hike. All signs point to a weakening global economy. China purposely weakened their growth, though still very up, to...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #276,235
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:40am Jul 29, 2010 8:40am
euro usd/ parity anyone?
Andreyou
  • #276,236
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:42am Jul 29, 2010 8:42am
first 3106 to the pip
I SEE YOU !!
  • #276,237
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:42am Jul 29, 2010 8:42am
Quoting Atlast
BIt would be interesting to see the % of traders short from your broker's info.
Here you go:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.66 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.50 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.4% lower than yesterday and 2.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 25.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% weaker than yesterday and 100.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #276,238
  • Edited 8:46am Jul 29, 2010 8:43am | Edited 8:46am
IMO, day is over. Closing all.

sisse
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Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #276,239
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:44am Jul 29, 2010 8:44am
uf a large seller up there
  • #276,240
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:45am Jul 29, 2010 8:45am
Quoting Atlast
BIt would be interesting to see the % of traders short from your broker's info.
It's been pointing to US$ losses across the board for over a week but they have to be right once in a while. I think it's overstretched at the moment.

SSI: USDCHF Ratio Pushes Higher as Price Action Remains Capped by the 200-day SMA
Thursday, 29 Jul 2010 10:44 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Click to Enlarge Name: p93.png Size: 177 KB


SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.66 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.50 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.4% lower than yesterday and 2.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 25.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% weaker than yesterday and 100.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.73 as nearly 63% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.74 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 1.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.1% higher than yesterday and 54.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 135.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.16 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.33 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.7% higher than yesterday and 5.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.8% lower than yesterday and 80.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.0% stronger than yesterday and 139.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 4.41 as nearly 82% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.47 as 78% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.9% higher than yesterday and 12.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 15.1% lower than yesterday and 17.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.7% stronger than yesterday and 123.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.11 as nearly 76% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.48 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 17.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 15.7% lower than yesterday and 2.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.7% weaker than yesterday and 122.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.54 as nearly 72% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.19 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.9% higher than yesterday and 29.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.0% lower than yesterday and 1.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.2% stronger than yesterday and 141.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.85 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.30 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 16.6% lower than yesterday and 21.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 18.8% higher than yesterday and 5.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 133.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.53 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.49 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 41.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.6% higher than yesterday and 6.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 133.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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