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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,141
  • Jul 28, 2010 11:27pm Jul 28, 2010 11:27pm
A/U.
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  • #4,142
  • Jul 29, 2010 3:28am Jul 29, 2010 3:28am
Quoting Victory83

2B pattern
divergence
stopped out
  • #4,143
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:22am Jul 29, 2010 8:22am
U/Chf, the previous assumption regarding bottoming proves wrong (unless we see a triple bottom) I prefer treating it as a descending scalop, targeting 1.02-01
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  • #4,144
  • Jul 29, 2010 8:25am Jul 29, 2010 8:25am
A/U as expected
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  • #4,145
  • Jul 29, 2010 11:05am Jul 29, 2010 11:05am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
1.27? The broken trendline projects price to target 1.31. The recently completed head and shoulders also projects price to 1.31, the exact 38.2% of the move down from 1.5140. With the E.C.B backing it all the way, its going to at least 1.31. You can take that to the bank.
Tada!!
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BTC Return This Year: na
  • #4,146
  • Jul 29, 2010 9:21pm Jul 29, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Tada!!

Hi Doug,
Great analysis, I bet you triple your account with this accurate forecast, well done
  • #4,147
  • Jul 29, 2010 9:23pm Jul 29, 2010 9:23pm
U/J
I see more down side for this pair, a new low around 80-79 might be on the card sooner than later
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  • #4,148
  • Jul 29, 2010 10:15pm Jul 29, 2010 10:15pm
Cable
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  • #4,149
  • Jul 30, 2010 2:32am Jul 30, 2010 2:32am
  •  aghast
  • | Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Fixed Income & Currencies Trader | 58 Posts
Hi Shahab,

I was wondering something while I was digging through your excellent charts. Are you always taking the first 20 pips with half of the position as profit and then moving the rest to break even?
Fortune always favors the brave.
  • #4,150
  • Jul 30, 2010 6:04am Jul 30, 2010 6:04am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Tada!!
Wow!! - very impressive. Well done
  • #4,151
  • Jul 30, 2010 6:06am Jul 30, 2010 6:06am
Quoting aghast
Hi Shahab,

I was wondering something while I was digging through your excellent charts. Are you always taking the first 20 pips with half of the position as profit and then moving the rest to break even?

Hi,

No, it's totally depends on your trading style, for one touch high probability trade you shouldn't do that , as it's based on probability of outcome and odds (RRR) , by doing so you are changing the RRR. In some other trading styles it can be considered as on option, but in general it's a more conservative approach.
  • #4,152
  • Jul 30, 2010 3:26pm Jul 30, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting shahab8b
Cable

Cable :Short Set Up
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  • #4,153
  • Jul 30, 2010 4:36pm Jul 30, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting shahab8b
Cable :Short Set Up
Still net shorts in the COT report and index has been overbought for a long time - this looks like a classical short squeeze and or mainly profit taking as the channel is so well defined?

Having said that potential upside resiatamce is still the 61.8 and maybe the 1.58 area?

What do you have as a likely target - always difficult with the Daily TF. I know some swing traders who simply take the first entry then keep adding on and on until something tells them the trend is starting back up again but you obviously miss out on some trades. Moving a stop to breakeven after 20 pips is just going to get your stop hit on a retest most of the time.

I like the fact that the $ is at the daily 200MA for shorts on $ pairs but having said that, the US will want to keep the stock market up at the same time.
  • #4,154
  • Jul 30, 2010 4:57pm Jul 30, 2010 4:57pm
http://i31.tinypic.com/2wqe9m8.png
  • #4,155
  • Jul 30, 2010 5:01pm Jul 30, 2010 5:01pm
http://i27.tinypic.com/5uqxya.png
  • #4,156
  • Jul 30, 2010 5:08pm Jul 30, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting Low
http://i27.tinypic.com/5uqxya.png
I got in at 1160 and got out at 1180 (1160 was the support line area) - maybe a foolish mistake but I think gold has a bit lower to go to 1140 or so before picking up long term buys.
  • #4,157
  • Jul 30, 2010 5:28pm Jul 30, 2010 5:28pm

SL above 1220 will be enough , 1180 is a good level to short.
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  • #4,158
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:39pm Jul 30, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
SL above 1220 will be enough , 1180 is a good level to short.
LOL. I was looking at it as a long opportunity. I'll be waiting and watching for the near-term...I have a bad relationship with gold, it tends to bring out the gambler in me.
  • #4,159
  • Jul 30, 2010 7:40pm Jul 30, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting SanMiguel
I got in at 1160 and got out at 1180 (1160 was the support line area) - maybe a foolish mistake but I think gold has a bit lower to go to 1140 or so before picking up long term buys.
1140 is important to me for other reasons, which is where I'd prefer to buy.
  • #4,160
  • Aug 1, 2010 5:14am Aug 1, 2010 5:14am
Hey guys,

have a look at the attached British Pound COT index.

It appears that we are at a high probability short set-up which could be good for 100-150 pips.
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