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Simple & Consistent Fibbing Method

  • #1,821
  • Jul 25, 2010 5:14pm Jul 25, 2010 5:14pm
Quoting whaka
Thanks Simone for the reply.

What are the main candle stick patterns that you look for.
No prob whaka! Mainly hammers, shooting stars, tweezers, morning/evening stars, piercing candles and dark cloud covers.
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  • #1,822
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:34pm Jul 25, 2010 11:34pm
Quoting simoneg
[b]Hi Everyone,

We have a new thread, an extension to this one, which will focus on trading the SFM, as this one focuses on teaching the method.

The new thread will allow traders trading the method to just post charts, trade setups, trades taken, say how or why and if they wish, post their results and the end. This thread can then be freed up for those learning to have free discussions and sharing and major questions can be periodically clarified.

See you SFM traders here next week...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=247182
Hi SFM family... let's go to the new thread guys.. and post many real live trades setups and results there
  • #1,823
  • Edited 5:16am Jul 26, 2010 4:59am | Edited 5:16am
Quoting lljazz
I want to try to make a review of GBP/USD this week and read where the price will likely move. If some of the more expierenced traders point out the right and wrong for learning procedures, I would be very thankful!

Here we go:

The price made last week a new high @1.5471, which was also month targets 1.5390-1.5555. In this week we had a retracement till 1.5122 which was last month high and last week short (30%). After that, price moved up making this week high 1.5448 just a little below last week high.

Attachment

Now to...
These are my sentiments as well. You are getting good. But previous price resistance may cause a reversal at April's high of 5525 or daily T2 @5555. :nerd:
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  • #1,824
  • Edited 7:10am Jul 27, 2010 6:39am | Edited 7:10am
Hi aswilled,

Could you explain me the entry of SFM method?

I read the posts. But still I got a problem to understand the entry at the 50% Fib level.

Should I use it as a reversal or continuation signal?

From my point of view it is such a thin line (and a very scary one!), that I am unsure what to do. If it breaks the 50% line, then we got a reversal. If it doesn't, continuation. The only help I think I have, is to realize the targets. With that I am also aware where the trend is going and take trades just in one direction. Does it mean, that I will properly not realize when the price turns around?

I would appreciate your help very much. It is bothering me since days...

My entry was Bobokus method and it works pretty nice. But I wanted to learn also the SFM entry to decide which fits better to me.
  • #1,825
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:37am Jul 27, 2010 7:37am
Quoting lljazz
Hi aswilled,

Could you explain me the entry of SFM method?

I read the posts. But still I got a problem to understand the entry at the 50% Fib level.

Should I use it as a reversal or continuation signal?

From my point of view it is such a thin line (and a very scary one!), that I am unsure what to do. If it breaks the 50% line, then we got a reversal. If it doesn't, continuation. The only help I think I have, is to realize the targets. With that I am also aware where the trend is going and take trades just in one direction. Does it mean,...

Yes I would like some help on this as well. I think this is the hardest bit to get right.
  • #1,826
  • Edited 10:44am Jul 27, 2010 10:12am | Edited 10:44am
Take EJ for example. Today it reached bull target 2 and fell down afterwards. It touched Intraday 50% and went straight up again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej m15.gif Size: 36 KB


How should I decide to enter long or short?

For me the obvious entry would be short, because the bull targets were reached.

But if I understood the entry right, then the 50% Fib wasn't breached. It means that it was just a retracement and it moves up again, and I should go long. And where would be my entry? After the big reversal candle and put my SL more than 40 pips away?

Now imagine the opposite. The trend breached the 50% Fib by closing below. I wait for the rectracement and then go short, right?

This scenario is dangerous and feels almost like gambling...

Edit: After thinking about this problem the only logical solution would be not to take any long signals anymore, even if it hurts to see the price moving +60 pips up...
  • #1,827
  • Jul 27, 2010 7:59pm Jul 27, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting lljazz
Take EJ for example. Today it reached bull target 2 and fell down afterwards. It touched Intraday 50% and went straight up again.

Attachment

How should I decide to enter long or short?

For me the obvious entry would be short, because the bull targets were reached.

But if I understood the entry right, then the 50% Fib wasn't breached. It means that it was just a retracement and it moves up again, and I should go long. And where would be my entry? After the big reversal candle and put my SL more than 40 pips away?

Now imagine...

Hi IIJAZZ, I have same problem with you. but I understand the logical of this method abit. I remember my old book - Advanced Swing by John Crane.

I think i chat with Whaka last week in chat room, and if it's so, he use ichimoku as the trend indicator then use SCFM for entry. (if i am not wrong)

The problem of this method is the Stop loss. I don't like non technical stop loss. if I find the fractal / swing for stop loss near the entry, I would be fine, but if not, this entry might put in the hot water for sometime. I could be right or wrong, this only my short analysis.

I must admit it, this strategy is good. the only thing you have to find for your self is finding the trend analysis for filtering the entry.

I am also still learning this method for my alternative entry.
  • #1,828
  • Jul 28, 2010 12:57am Jul 28, 2010 12:57am
Quoting lljazz
Could you explain me the entry of SFM method? I read the posts. But still I got a problem to understand the entry at the 50% Fib level.
Should I use it as a reversal or continuation signal?
I've had that question too. Thanks for asking it! I'm looking forward to SimoneG's reply!
  • #1,829
  • Edited 8:41am Jul 28, 2010 8:17am | Edited 8:41am
Hi All,

The 50% Breach is used for both continuation and reversal trades. In a given trend, we use this level to identify areas of support and resistance and therefore continuation points. When we suspect or analyse that a trend is ending, we use the breach to identify areas of support and resistance and therefore reversal points.
To determine the end of a trend, I use, daily targets, weekly targets, monthly targets, ABCD patterns, Bigger time frames, higher lows and higher highs on current timeframe=uptrend, lower lows and lower highs on current timeframe=downtrend.

Examples below:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PIC1.jpg Size: 110 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: PIC2.jpg Size: 130 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: pic3.jpg Size: 123 KB
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  • #1,830
  • Jul 28, 2010 8:40am Jul 28, 2010 8:40am
Hope that the explanation/example above helps. There are many many ways to use the breach fib. The above is one of the easier ways. Only requires that you wait for the setups.
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  • #1,831
  • Jul 28, 2010 8:42am Jul 28, 2010 8:42am
Thank you, simoneg.

I got a scenario. If the intraday targets are hit, let's say T1, and we see the price moves down. I adjust the Fib for the 50% breach to enter and suddenly the 50% is touched but is being rejected and closes above it.

What now?

My mind is set for short, since T1 was hit, but now it was just a retracement and moves back up. If the price would close a few pips below the hole situtation changes. To make this decision in a range of 10-20 pips is difficult.

So if the market is bullish, I just trade the retrace?

And the main signal for a reversal is, when the weekly and monthly targets are hit? - You already answered that. Thanks!

The entry is also difficult on a congestion, where price goes up and down and you only know where it is going after a breakout.

Sorry for that amount of questions, but I am really breaking my head about this method and want to understand it until I mumble the stuff while sleeping.
  • #1,832
  • Jul 28, 2010 8:44am Jul 28, 2010 8:44am
Quoting lljazz
Thank you, simoneg.

I got a scenario. If the intraday targets are hit, let's say T1, and we see the price moves down. I adjust the Fib for the 50% breach to enter and suddenly the 50% is touched but is being rejected and closes above it.

What now?

My mind is set for short, since T1 was hit, but now it was just a retracement and moves back up. If the price would close a few pips below the hole situtation changes. To make this decision in a range of 10-20 pips is difficult.

So if the market is bullish, I just trade the retrace?

And the main signal...
Hi lljazz,

Are these bull or bear targets hit on the intraday?
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  • #1,833
  • Jul 28, 2010 8:47am Jul 28, 2010 8:47am
Bull targets on that scenario.
  • #1,834
  • Jul 28, 2010 8:52am Jul 28, 2010 8:52am
Quoting lljazz
Bull targets on that scenario.
ok,

So first thing is, I never recommend that you take reversal trades when Intraday targets are hit, unless, they are in the vicinity of bigger targets (daily, weekly, monthly) Or strong support or resistance areas.

Secondly, if their is rejection on the 50% breach, and price closes above, and the trend was already up, chances are we have a CONTINUATION SETUP here. Trade with the trend and look at what bull targets (daily, weekly, monthly), price is heading towards.


The example I gave in post 1830 is best applied in areas of congestion. But works both ways.

Hope I have answered your questions.
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  • #1,835
  • Jul 28, 2010 9:02am Jul 28, 2010 9:02am
The biggest problem about the entry is getting the whole big picture. Maybe a checklist for the big picture would be nice. Like:

-Check yearly fib
-Check Monthly fib
-Check weekly fib
-Check daily fib
-Check ABCD patterns and trend lines (on all TF?)

Where are we? Where are we going?

For me the entry is the most difficult part of this method. I am a rational person and I need a also a rational explanation for the entries.
I'm going to think about a checklist and post it to help all the others.

If you guys got an idea what else get on the checklist, please tell!
  • #1,836
  • Jul 28, 2010 9:11am Jul 28, 2010 9:11am
lljazz and others, look at the scenario now playing out on the GU. You can visit the SFM trading room for that chart.

Ok all take care. I am out for today.
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  • #1,837
  • Jul 28, 2010 9:32am Jul 28, 2010 9:32am
Hi simoneg,

I am checking it. The first thing that catches my eye is, price is above weekly T1 and monthly T2 and very close to Range Pivot (a Fib for all the move down 1.7042 - 1.4229). All this is telling me, that short is the way to go. But the market is right now bullish!
To make things worse GU stuck most of the time between Intraday R1 and Yesterday R1 and moves up and down. If I would enter with the 50% Breach, I would have a few positions in both directions http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif.

What would be your suggestion?

Thank you in advance!
  • #1,838
  • Jul 28, 2010 9:41am Jul 28, 2010 9:41am
Quoting lljazz
Hi simoneg,

I am checking it. The first thing that catches my eye is, price is above weekly T1 and monthly T2 and very close to Range Pivot (a Fib for all the move down 1.7042 - 1.4229). All this is telling me, that short is the way to go. But the market is right now bullish!
To make things worse GU stuck most of the time between Intraday R1 and Yesterday R1 and moves up and down. If I would enter with the 50% Breach, I would have a few positions in both directions http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif.

What would...
Well, right now price would have to be above the weekly T1 so that we could hit T2. Secondly, what desitination was the ABC swing targetting? Is there resistance there? Does it converge with any other targets? Are we at a Swing Low?
The important thing is not to complicate your checklist, so that you wont freeze on good setups. Right now we have a high probability sell off. We take it and wait of it to play out. So I am thinking, this is a beautiful short setup. Will it be a successful trade? Only time will tell. Lets keep it simple!
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  • #1,839
  • Aug 2, 2010 7:38am Aug 2, 2010 7:38am
Quoting simoneg
lljazz and others, look at the scenario now playing out on the GU. You can visit the SFM trading room for that chart.

Ok all take care. I am out for today.
hi Simoneq, where can i find the link of SFM trading room ? please advice
  • #1,840
  • Aug 2, 2010 10:39am Aug 2, 2010 10:39am
Quoting kissaki
hi Simoneq, where can i find the link of SFM trading room ? please advice
Simple Fib Chatroom

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