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Sonic R. System

  • #13,781
  • Edited 7:55am Jul 26, 2010 7:20am | Edited 7:55am
EU Watch:

Now, all the big players are at the table. Will price drift down only to be pumped again at the US stock market open, for the US turn at the highs before a drop? Or will price just get slammed by the US traders? (Or, will price just go up.....arrgggg! Perish the thought!)

Lets see what happens.

Edit: Updated EU chart and added GU chart. There is a US New Home Sales release at 10 am EST, a half hour after the open of the US stock market. PA activity for both EU and GU may be stalled due to waiting for this release.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,782
  • Jul 26, 2010 8:07am Jul 26, 2010 8:07am
GU is just reaching D1 S/R level.
The volume charge looks interesting there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Follow my trading on Twitter and FB: @pumlitch
  • #13,783
  • Jul 26, 2010 8:17am Jul 26, 2010 8:17am
Quoting Pumlitch
GU is just reaching D1 S/R level.
The volume charge looks interesting there.
Attachment
Not only on the Daily chart, but also look what is currently going on on the M1 chart! Looks like some of the players are cashing in before the stampede! And the same is going on with EU as shown by the EU M1 NVO study.
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  • #13,784
  • Jul 26, 2010 8:35am Jul 26, 2010 8:35am
Quoting traderathome
Not only on the Daily chart, but also look what is currently going on on the M1 chart! Looks like some of the players are cashing in before the stampede! And the same is going on with EU as shown by the EU M1 NVO study.
Yep! Looks like the players know more than others OR know nothing and are getting scared. (inappropriate to be deleted)
Follow my trading on Twitter and FB: @pumlitch
  • #13,785
  • Jul 26, 2010 9:13am Jul 26, 2010 9:13am
EU Watch:

The PA and NVO on this M1 chart may mean that those trying to short at the highs are finding it difficult....liquidity problem caused by everyone wanting to trade the same direction, in this case DOWN.

Shear speculation. But it looks like the last grab high by shorters before the fall.

We just have to wait "for the market to decide."
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  • #13,786
  • Jul 26, 2010 9:35am Jul 26, 2010 9:35am
GU:

Is this a "Here we go!" senario just starting?
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  • #13,787
  • Jul 26, 2010 9:40am Jul 26, 2010 9:40am
short GU

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"Be the change that you wish to see in the world." --Gandhi
  • #13,788
  • Jul 26, 2010 9:47am Jul 26, 2010 9:47am
I'm in short.
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  • #13,789
  • Jul 26, 2010 9:55am Jul 26, 2010 9:55am
Quoting lawgirl21
I'm in short.
Lawgirl, if you goto ChartProperties (right click on chart/last option in list) and uncheck "Show OHLC", then the top of your chart panel will no longer be obscured. That was mentioned in the user notes in the compile, as well as alternate color choices for a black chart.
  • #13,790
  • Jul 26, 2010 10:15am Jul 26, 2010 10:15am
Quoting traderathome
Lawgirl, if you goto ChartProperties (right click on chart/last option in list) and uncheck "Show OHLC", then the top of your chart panel will no longer be obscured. That was mentioned in the user notes in the compile, as well as alternate color choices for a black chart.

Thanks so much...I didn't even realize the top of my charts were obscured...guess I wasn't paying attention to the tops. It took me forever to learn how to attach a chart!
  • #13,791
  • Jul 26, 2010 10:22am Jul 26, 2010 10:22am
Quoting traderathome
"Another thing ... Try to recieve what market desires to give you. I don't like targets at all ... I'll get what markets gives me, in this strategy. Targeting will make you do some things that may damage your account most of the time http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif" - Basber

That is a gem of a statement!

Fibonacci studys, pivots, even the average range lines included in the 'panel' can all serve to hinder us in receiving what the market desires to give us.

To target, or not to target, that is the question....

Thanks for your comments Basber and TAH.

I am in fact a little vague on where to take profits. 100 pips is always nice to achieve, but if it is not based on price action, then it will soon fail as the markets change. So I do watch S/R levels, pivots, but not fibs, and I trail my stop when I think it's safe to do so, but I like to leave a lot of breathing room on these longer trades.

My short GU trade isn't exactly tanking like there's no tomorrow, so we'll see.
"Be the change that you wish to see in the world." --Gandhi
  • #13,792
  • Jul 26, 2010 10:23am Jul 26, 2010 10:23am
EU (and GU):

With less than an hour before the last of the euro traders get up and leave the table, prices are still being held up with highest trading activity being at the highs (see EU M1 attached as an example). More than just being 'held up', it seems to be actively manipulated even higher for increased trading!

It could come to pass that the players leave, one by one, having made their play and leaving the price where it is, maybe thinking to resume selling there tomorrow.
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  • #13,793
  • Jul 26, 2010 11:57am Jul 26, 2010 11:57am
gu daily
confluence - s/r & fibo
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  • #13,794
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:00pm Jul 26, 2010 12:00pm
-29 pips on my short GU trade

nasty spike from those mean old market movers
"Be the change that you wish to see in the world." --Gandhi
  • #13,795
  • Jul 26, 2010 5:13pm Jul 26, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting david4u
EU short initiated ...
Where is wave analysis ? don't force to enter a trade. for a short, you should see a move down, with volume at the high, showing that big guns are loading their positions at highs, then we should see a pull back then we wait for a candle to close below the dragon or below the previous low. You can't consider some highs of single candles as a pullback. you should see it as a swing.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #13,796
  • Jul 26, 2010 5:15pm Jul 26, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting lawgirl21
I'm in short.
And Again ... Where is the wave people ?!

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #13,797
  • Jul 26, 2010 5:21pm Jul 26, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting Wally1953
Thanks for your comments Basber and TAH.

I am in fact a little vague on where to take profits. 100 pips is always nice to achieve, but if it is not based on price action, then it will soon fail as the markets change. So I do watch S/R levels, pivots, but not fibs, and I trail my stop when I think it's safe to do so, but I like to leave a lot of breathing room on these longer trades.

My short GU trade isn't exactly tanking like there's no tomorrow, so we'll see.
You're quite welcome Wally

Everyone is at the beginning half of their trading life. Setting StopLoss is Solid for many systems, But managing good levels for taking profit, is a very hard task, because their is no solid rule. A setup could move only 30 pips in positive way, and the same exact setup could move 200 pips. No one can predict where price will return for sure, But I believe S&R and volume are best indicators to catch to most of the move. And of course beside tightening SL or changing it to Stop Proft makes your risk so smaller or even make your risk positive for your account.

It needs experience, and you'll achieve it if you take your time.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #13,798
  • Jul 26, 2010 5:28pm Jul 26, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting Wally1953
-29 pips on my short GU trade

nasty spike from those mean old market movers
It was not old market movers, it was a bad entry from you. just tell me, where was a short setup ? Beside there was no lower low, only two candles closes below the dragon that you should place your sell order few pips above it's low, and it didn't triggered, and even if it did, it was not a sonicR entry. No "high - low - lowerhigh - boom !!" , no short !

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #13,799
  • Jul 26, 2010 5:41pm Jul 26, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting Basber
Where is wave analysis ? don't force to enter a trade. for a short, you should see a move down, with volume at the high, showing that big guns are loading their positions at highs, then we should see a pull back then we wait for a candle to close below the dragon or below the previous low. You can't consider some highs of single candles as a pullback. you should see it as a swing.

Regards,
Basber
Hi Basber,

I have been on this thread for quite some time now and still manage to get my neck handed to me... Like today for example I could have sworn that I saw the wave on EU and with what seemed like heavy volume at the top. On the chart the blue line shows my entry right after the candle closes under the dragon and the 89MA… Are you implying that the pending order should have been by the green line instead? Can you kindly illustrate and explain your point if it is not too much trouble?

Thank you
C
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,800
  • Jul 26, 2010 6:04pm Jul 26, 2010 6:04pm
Quoting Chantalb
Hi Basber,

[color=black][font=Verdana]I have been on this thread for quite some time now and still manage to get my neck handed to me... Like today for example I could have sworn that I saw the wave on EU and with what seemed like heavy volume at the top. On the chart the blue line shows my entry right after the candle closes under the dragon and the 89MA… Are you implying that the pending order should have been by the green line instead? Can you kindly illustrate and explain your point if it is not too...
Hey C,

Of course it's not any trouble. It's my pleasure to be helpful.

Not at all. You're entry due to dragon and few pips below the dragon is fine. The thing with your entry that I don't like is the wave. after the move down, there is no clear pull back, in other words, there is no lower high after that high. You can't consider a single candles high as a swing for lower high. Look at the picture. I would like to see a pull back (retrace) like the black lines that I drew then enter the market in the level you mentioned if it closes below the dragon when it drops AFTER THE PULLBACK.

I hope I was clear.

The only valid trade for me today was E/J short that I took it, closed it after taking down my sl and it hits. Bagged +31 pips. It reaches +60, But I was looking for bigger moves ... 2 & 3 & 4th picture :
2nd pic : entry for EJ
3rd pic : revising SL
4th pic : hit my stop profit for +31 pips

Regards,
Basber
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
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