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  • #274,921
  • Jul 25, 2010 10:31pm Jul 25, 2010 10:31pm
I agree weaker dollar helps US exports and diminishes imports but one area where we get hit with a weaker dollar is the price of crude. OPEC and all the rest of the oil producers demand more of our dollars if they depreciate to a lower value.
  • #274,922
  • Jul 25, 2010 10:34pm Jul 25, 2010 10:34pm
Notice the daily and weekly pivot line up together at 1.2887 right around today's low of 1.2876
  • #274,923
  • Jul 25, 2010 10:35pm Jul 25, 2010 10:35pm
Quoting SunTrader
I agree weaker dollar helps US exports and diminishes imports but one area where we get hit with a weaker dollar is the price of crude. OPEC and all the rest of the oil producers demand more of our dollars if they depreciate to a lower value.

Yep, usually a pretty nice inverse correlation between dollar and stocks and commodity prices, although this last month or so things have been a bit bonkos.
  • #274,924
  • Jul 25, 2010 10:36pm Jul 25, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting Awesome
I'm just talking in theory. All else equal, if you have a weaker dollar your products are going to be more competitive i.e., exporters in the US want a weaker dollar. In addition, if dollar is weaker, all else equal, stocks and commodities gain. Obviously there are many other factors in play.
Many other factors are internal. So internally dollar is dollar and unique currency.

But externally when you look outside strong dollar can serve you better.

Last year if import dropped much because of dollar's low value, calculate estimated import and export if dollar value comes in middle position.
Surely export will reduce and import will rise.
Suppose if exp:imp = 1:2 , then strong dollar can tweak strong economy.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #274,925
  • Jul 25, 2010 10:54pm Jul 25, 2010 10:54pm
A strong dollar also appeases the masses and gives support to an ailing economy.. encourages consumers to spend, etc.. etc.. It might be the only way left that Obama has to get the economy off Life Support
  • #274,926
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:06pm Jul 25, 2010 11:06pm
Quoting forexings
Many other factors are internal. So internally dollar is dollar and unique currency.

But externally when you look outside strong dollar can serve you better.

Last year if import dropped much because of dollar's low value, calculate estimated import and export if dollar value comes in middle position.
Surely export will reduce and import will rise.
Suppose if exp:imp = 1:2 , then strong dollar can tweak strong economy.

Not 100% sure I understand you correctly, but I was basically talking in regards to US assets which people in other countries invest in. Obviously McDonads isn't going to jack up the price on a burger by 1 cent because the dollar dropped a bit that day. US assets are going to fluctuate with dollar prices though because people in other countries invest in US stock markets for example. In my original post I was only focusing on exports in regards to some of Obama's goals. I'm in no way saying I agree with what Obama is doing to help the US economy (in fact the only thing I can think of that I agree with him on off the top of my head is his picking North Carolina to win the 2009 NCAA basketball championship), I was simply speculating on what he might be doing based on what his stated goals are. I agree that the strength of the dollar is only 1 of many factors that determine the state of an economy and you can have a strong or weak dollar in a strong or weak economy. Like I said, I was simply talking in theory which is very seldom the case.
  • #274,927
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:14pm Jul 25, 2010 11:14pm
NO Major news till new york. Is it going to break 1.3000-1.3050?
To Your Success!!
  • #274,928
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:17pm Jul 25, 2010 11:17pm
Quoting SNS, Inc
A strong dollar also appeases the masses and gives support to an ailing economy.. encourages consumers to spend, etc.. etc.. It might be the only way left that Obama has to get the economy off Life Support

Yeah, it's kind of a double edged sword though. The stock market is a leading indicator of economic recovery. If the dollar starts going up again it will slow down or halt growth in the markets. This scares consumers who pay a little too much attention to the news media and their change in sentiment every 30 minutes. All the smoke and mirrors are only band-aids on a much larger problem. This redistribution of wealth may make people happy in the short term, but the longer this goes on, the smaller the pot gets. You need to attack the problem at its core. Get small business and corporations hiring again. Tax cuts are the way to do this, not hikes. This gets people spending again, money will filter through the system, business will start doing better cause people are spending and this will cause people to spend even more. If you keep playing around with markets to create these illusions it might look good in the short term, but in the long run it will just keep balancing itself out and you're right back at square one. Just my opinion, to each his own.
  • #274,929
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:23pm Jul 25, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting Awesome
Yeah, it's kind of a double edged sword though....
Back to your double edged sword though, that tax cuts cut government income, which then increases government debt, which scares consumers because of what is happening in Europe and the fear of a country actually defaulting on its debt. While the US is not near that point yet, give us a few years. Basically all told... we are all going to hell in a handbasket quickly, and if you already don't have about $5M just sitting around... your screwed. Makes me feel good.
  • #274,930
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:34pm Jul 25, 2010 11:34pm
Quoting SNS, Inc
Back to your double edged sword though, that tax cuts cut government income, .........
If tax cuts are done the right way they encourage growth which increases, not decreases, tax revenues.

But the problem the federal government has and will always have (unless we do go belly up at some point) is they spend more than they take from in - no matter how much it is that they take in.
  • #274,931
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:38pm Jul 25, 2010 11:38pm
Quoting SNS, Inc
Back to your double edged sword though, that tax cuts cut government income, which then increases government debt, which scares consumers because of what is happening in Europe and the fear of a country actually defaulting on its debt. While the US is not near that point yet, give us a few years. Basically all told... we are all going to hell in a handbasket quickly, and if you already don't have about $5M just sitting around... your screwed. Makes me feel good.

The government is spending a lot of money on dumb shit right now. If you get rid of all these handouts and set aside all your "it's time for change" projects for a few years, you have the money for these tax cuts without going further into debt than we already are. A guy I know is collecting unemployment and when I asked him how the job search is going his response was "I'm not even looking. Why would I work when I can get paid not to." He goes down to the pier and fishes all day long instead. Bad behavior and laziness are being rewarded. Its all politics now. Unfortunately most people are lazy idiots so you appeal to these people, you get elected. To get out of this mess we need a leader who is willing to set his ego aside and take the role of the bad guy. Unfortunately politics don't work like this.
  • #274,932
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:43pm Jul 25, 2010 11:43pm
[quote=SunTrader;3898453]If tax cuts are done the right way....

Tax cuts done the right way requires politicians to pull their thumbs from their @ss and stop them from geting $$ handed to them from 50 under the table people and organizations.

So all said.. that will never happen.

On top of which Banks have tightened lending standards thanks to the last 2 years of financial meltdown. So small businesses are struggling to find any money. which, of course, means that this economic recovery may soon have that slow whistling sound of a bomb dropping coming soon.
  • #274,933
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:49pm Jul 25, 2010 11:49pm
I think I'll take this side diversion as my cue that is it time for

Night all.

PS where is Jay with his popcorn?
  • #274,934
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:58pm Jul 25, 2010 11:58pm
Quoting SunTrader
If tax cuts are done the right way they encourage growth which increases, not decreases, tax revenues.

But the problem the federal government has and will always have (unless we do go belly up at some point) is they spend more than they take from in - no matter how much it is that they take in.
you are referring to the laffer curve. Yes, this supply-side theory works well when the tax cuts go from 70% to around 30% (Reagan). The problem is that it is nearly impossible to predict the high point of the curve. Think about where we are right now (which point on the curve) - this theory will not work so well in our current economic environment.

Dont get me wrong, I am on the supply side.
  • #274,935
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:00am Jul 26, 2010 12:00am
Quoting Awesome
I was simply speculating on what he might be doing based on what his stated goals are. I agree that the strength of the dollar is only 1 of many factors that determine the state of an economy and you can have a strong or weak dollar in a strong or weak economy.
Actually export is better to boost economy but strong dollar is better to save economy.
Solution is: 1st Obama have to check US internal problems to rise production and set the country for healthy export. Fed. shouldn't hike dollar rate until economy grows with exports. By this way both internal and externally they will get benefit.

Internally because: new or expand business means creating new job and rising production (raw materials is a factor which need to be import sometimes).
Externally because: When export will be higher than import, slowly low valued dollar will help country's economy.

[I have showed just an example]

After a few years fed. can hike dollar rate to fill-up their lost debt.

This is also a question how many days fed. can check with their reserve $$$
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #274,936
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:02am Jul 26, 2010 12:02am
lets see if I can push this to the limit.

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night
  • #274,937
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:14am Jul 26, 2010 12:14am
Morning to all . eu still not suffered any great breakdown . bull seems ok too .
anyway expecting 1.2918/08 for a bounce or even 1.2878 ok .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #274,938
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:30am Jul 26, 2010 12:30am
Quoting forexings
Don't think so there is any good resistance once bull pass 3050 gate.
Let's see how serious it is.
3055 aint no pushover.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #274,939
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:34am Jul 26, 2010 12:34am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...hs-a-bull.html
  • #274,940
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:55am Jul 26, 2010 12:55am
Quoting Awesome
Yeah could be, I'd give it a week or two though. Probably gonna be a lot of fake outs and BS before people show their real hands. I find it hard to believe people are buying into all the crap Europe is feeding them. I could be wrong and things might actually be better than everybody expected, but just the way they are going about it tells me something is up.
draw a fib from 1.6038 to .8225.. in any tf a 50% move is a bitch... . when near or passing a 50% fib ping pong can be played on the outer fibs till direction is chosen. 3055 is the next higher fib to 2133..it happens often when a 50% fib is crossed several times before a clear direction is known. 3045 and a few others near 3055 is in my charts.. the bear and bull charts i have are still valid.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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