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Sonic R. System

  • #13,761
  • Jul 25, 2010 4:43pm Jul 25, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting Wally1953
Just want to wish everybody a nice weekend. For the most part it's been a very good week trading, at least I hope it has for everyone. We have a good group in here, some very thoughtful people, and I hope to contribute more as I become more self-confident.

We've got the right idea, slow and steady, stick to the basics, proper money management, and keep the emotions out of it.

If we can just average 100 pips a week (which I think is conservative) using 3% of account, compounding as account grows, in a year's time we'll be...
Welcome Wally,

Don't hope, Just do it. Confidence will be the result

Another thing ... Try to recieve what market desires to give you. I don't like targets at all ... I'll get what markets gives me, in this strategy. Targeting will make you do some things that may damage your account most of the time

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #13,762
  • Jul 25, 2010 6:21pm Jul 25, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting Basber
Welcome Wally,

Don't hope, Just do it. Confidence will be the result

Another thing ... Try to recieve what market desires to give you. I don't like targets at all ... I'll get what markets gives me, in this strategy. Targeting will make you do some things that may damage your account most of the time

Regards,
Basber
"Another thing ... Try to recieve what market desires to give you. I don't like targets at all ... I'll get what markets gives me, in this strategy. Targeting will make you do some things that may damage your account most of the time http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif" - Basber

That is a gem of a statement!

Fibonacci studys, pivots, even the average range lines included in the 'panel' can all serve to hinder us in receiving what the market desires to give us.

To target, or not to target, that is the question. And it is an individual's own decision to make. But I can hear ddaytrader saying something to the effect, "Look to past PA S&R and consolidation levels, to determine where it is going."
  • #13,763
  • Edited 10:22pm Jul 25, 2010 8:46pm | Edited 10:22pm
EU Watch:

Today the asian session traders have pushed the price up for their trading (see NVO study), so it could be they are looking forward to downwards movement.

WARNING: Speculation!

Edit: Added second chart. The grouping of candles highlighted I interpret as initially becoming undecided at the highs, to then turning bearish. SonicR is not about candlestick reading on the lower TF charts. This is just something by way of comment, seeing as how the asian traders moved the price up to do their trading. If there is consistency here, it would be that they reached a point where there were too many shorters to be able to go higher? That is not to say that price cannot be pushed higher, it would just take more money to do it.....something for the Frankfurt Open or London Open traders to consider. Whatever highs are reached, so long as the trading favors the highs, we know what is coming next! (Again, be warned that this is speculation!)
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  • #13,764
  • Jul 25, 2010 10:58pm Jul 25, 2010 10:58pm
EJ, Same As EU:

With EJ it is even more clear. The asian session traders pumped up the price during just a little over average trading. After they got the price up, THEN came the increased trading! Though as with EU, we can't know if the euro traders will or won't also pump the price for their trading.
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  • #13,765
  • Jul 25, 2010 11:18pm Jul 25, 2010 11:18pm
And, EJ is poised to perhaps bounce off a strong resistance area that has held for 2+ months...
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  • #13,766
  • Edited 11:56pm Jul 25, 2010 11:39pm | Edited 11:56pm
Quoting cardinale
And, EJ is poised to perhaps bounce off a strong resistance area that has held for 2+ months...
EJ:

Not only on the H4, cardinale, but also on this old Weekly chart you can see the same level which was Support many moons ago before even the Inverted Cup and Handle got started!

Note that the formation target (depth of cup subtracted from rim of cup) is about 1,400 pips lower than the current price!
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  • #13,767
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:15am Jul 26, 2010 12:15am
Quoting missH
Hi T,

I always puzzled by how to choose the parameter of the NVO. You know different parameter will show different NVO Histogram.

I find you use several parameter such 20 or 768... How about you to choose it?

Thank you,

missH
Here is an excerpt from the user notes in the compile of the upgrade being worked on:

What "Averaging_Period" or override period should be used? This is an individual choice,
but here is a thought. Lets consider the M15 chart display. If you select a short averaging
period, say "10", when trading suddenly increases after an activity lull, you will see a good
first spike in the histogram. But since this higher activity is now part of a very short
averaging period, even as high activity continues, the bars will actually decrease because
the ongoing activity becomes a decreasing percentage of the increasing average! Also, the
high initial bars with a short period can be deceiving. The activity might still be small in
the big picture (say, a day). Increasing the period, say to "96" (a full day of M15 TFs),
will show a smaller initial spike, but the follow on bars will not fall off so rapidly. Also,
a long period shows bar heights more in relation to the "big picture". So, do you want a
strong initial signal, or a histogram where all bars are more in relation to the big picture?
With experimentation, you can find the period choices best suited to your trading.
  • #13,768
  • Jul 26, 2010 12:16am Jul 26, 2010 12:16am
...is setting up also.
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  • #13,769
  • Edited 1:03am Jul 26, 2010 12:41am | Edited 1:03am
EU Watch:

I am thinking something like this may transpire. We just neet the Frankfurt boys to do the pullup, so they and the London Open gang can load up....

Edit: Second chart....looks like they might not bother with another drive up. If PA breaks the whole number it could just keep on going. Might be best to lower EP to around whole number/89 ema Trend Line, and wait to see what happens.
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  • #13,770
  • Jul 26, 2010 1:16am Jul 26, 2010 1:16am
Quoting lawgirl21
...is setting up also.
triggered.
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  • #13,771
  • Jul 26, 2010 1:33am Jul 26, 2010 1:33am
EU Watch:

As did the asian session traders, the euro session traders have pumped the price back up for their own trading there. A quick spike up. Now, how long will they keep it up there while trading it? London open? US open? Will all the separate groups want to do the same? If they do, then we may get a higher EP South out of it. Meanwhile, the traders are building in an extra 40-50 pips profit for themselves on the next run down.

For now, it looks like it could range a while before the assumed drop.

.....Let the market decide.
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  • #13,772
  • Jul 26, 2010 2:57am Jul 26, 2010 2:57am
Good morning to all,
Over the weekend I was going through some history on the EU chart and I came to notice that during the FO and just after the LO more often than not when we get spikes on the NVO it is an indication of PA bottom or peak. What are your thoughts on that?
  • #13,773
  • Jul 26, 2010 3:16am Jul 26, 2010 3:16am
Quoting Chantalb
Good morning to all,
Over the weekend I was going through some history on the EU chart and I came to notice that during the FO and just after the LO more often than not when we get spikes on the NVO it is an indication of PA bottom or peak. What are your thoughts on that?
Here is a chart showing what I mean...
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  • #13,774
  • Edited 3:49am Jul 26, 2010 3:22am | Edited 3:49am
2 shorts initiated...
Would like to the see the EU moving down too ..
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  • #13,775
  • Edited 3:50am Jul 26, 2010 3:27am | Edited 3:50am
EU short initiated ...
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  • #13,776
  • Jul 26, 2010 3:32am Jul 26, 2010 3:32am
Quoting david4u
EU short initiated ...
Same here
  • #13,777
  • Jul 26, 2010 4:33am Jul 26, 2010 4:33am
My EU short is still pending. Set to triger at 1.28830
  • #13,778
  • Jul 26, 2010 5:13am Jul 26, 2010 5:13am
My EU trade was triggered at 1,2893 so now Im waiting what will happen.
PT 1,2825 slightly above S1 level of Daily Pivot.
I will pay an attention when price will be around 1,2840 SR level.
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  • #13,779
  • Edited 6:29am Jul 26, 2010 6:04am | Edited 6:29am
EU Watch, Short Trade Update:

Yes, you can clearly see the NVO spike just before LO, and at the highest prices! ....a clear indication of a selloff.

The resistance area is the same as during Friday. So price has made a significant failure there AGAIN, at the half number.

Based upon that, I have added to my short trade which I entered Friday afternoon. My average entry price is just below what I consider to be a valid EP South, and about the middle of the current range. The US open is yet to come, so my SL is ridiculously larger, in case of a whipsaw. TPs 1 and 2 are as shown, and can be verified by PA if you switch to the H1 TF.

Edit: Updated chart. It looks like the euro traders are now putting in a LH for us. But we still have the US open to deal with. These whips up are the well monied speculator outfits placing large orders high up, and then when the intervening trade orders reduce to a point that makes the run up profitable, they make the run taking the opposite side of any imbalance in orders at all levels up to their large order, to get it filled. It is what I call price manipulation.....when they want a huge short order filled at a much higher price, they drive the price up to get it filled.

WARNING: Speculation!
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  • #13,780
  • Edited 7:17am Jul 26, 2010 6:06am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting Basber
Congrates Pumlitch,

It's an old saying ... : "suckers gets in first" ! that's why I rather to avoid trading in monday, unless there is a very good setup. And on friday, many traders decide to close their trades, that's why it's change from technical to some random moves. That's why I just trade UK session if and only if there is a very good setup ...

Anyway, it's better that you grasp the movement of the market, and there is no posts better than TAH's in this thread in this field ... Try to read them all ...

Regards,
Basber
Thx buddy,
It is not bad idea to avoid Monday and Friday trading. As I am still in Learning mode on Demo account I preffer to trade lil more in order to get familiar with as many situation as I can. However, since I will get over "Know nothing" level I will start to trade less and , hopfully, earn more. Hmmm that is maybe right now

TAH's posts rule, of course.


EDIT: my SL EU hit - wrongly placed.
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