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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #7,381
  • Jul 23, 2010 1:58am Jul 23, 2010 1:58am
Quoting Mortician.
Both AUD/USD and AUD/CAD are getting ripe. I am more predisposed towards AUD/CAD...i think the setup is more robust.

AUD/USD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7361


AUD/CAD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7341
I am actually short biased on the aud/cad, but agree on the aud/usd though.
  • #7,382
  • Jul 23, 2010 1:58am Jul 23, 2010 1:58am
Greetings to all!

I'm new to forex trading and been reading this thread and also saw Sam Seiden's enlightening videos. I previously had tried to use all sorts of indicators in the past to little avail, but realized how simple fundamental supply and demand analysis can be used for trading!

From my understanding, I'll look left of the charts for large momentum moves (due to imbalances in demand and supply) with few small bars prior to the move. Then, I'll slowly wait for the price to return to that level, with limit order placed at that point. Stop loss +5 pips below the source level and take profit at least 3:1 and looking out for opposing supply and resistance levels. An example can be seen in the EURUSD chart attached.

I've tried this with previous H1 and H4 charts, I'm a little unsure of the exact take profit point as sometimes it moves to about 50-60% of the take profit level and heads to stop loss, whilst other times it may be close to stop less but would still eventually hit the target and beyond.

What do you guys think? Any feedback and suggestions would be kindly appreciated!

Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H1.jpg Size: 82 KB
"Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope."
  • #7,383
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:08am Jul 23, 2010 2:08am
Quoting Jliuuu
From my understanding, I'll look left of the charts for large momentum moves (due to imbalances in demand and supply) with few small bars prior to the move. Then, I'll slowly wait for the price to return to that level, with limit order placed at that point. Stop loss +5 pips below the source level and take profit at least 3:1 and looking out for opposing supply and resistance levels. An example can be seen in the EURUSD chart attached.
There are different approaches to that. I also like to just put limit orders on the levels, but for example in the following thread they look at PA at that supply/demand level to "confirm" that it is a valid one. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=222822

I guess it depends on your preference. Good idea with the high R:R. For supply / demand levels I would maybe also look if historically the level was a reaction point, then it has higher probability of getting noticed again.

Quoting Jliuuu
I've tried this with previous H1 and H4 charts, I'm a little unsure of the exact take profit point as sometimes it moves to about 50-60% of the take profit level and heads to stop loss, whilst other times it may be close to stop less but would still eventually hit the target and beyond.

What do you guys think? Any feedback and suggestions would be kindly appreciated!

Cheers!
easy, take profit in between, then you can avoid this.

cheers
  • #7,384
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:29am Jul 23, 2010 2:29am
Quoting Custos
There are different approaches to that. I also like to just put limit orders on the levels, but for example in the following thread they look at PA at that supply/demand level to "confirm" that it is a valid one. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=222822

I guess it depends on your preference. Good idea with the high R:R. For supply / demand levels I would maybe also look if historically the level was a reaction point, then it has higher probability of getting noticed again.
Thanks for the link! I'll really want to learn to read price action well.

Quoting Custos
easy, take profit in between, then you can avoid this.

cheers
Good idea! For that particular trade, I just kept moving my stop loss up to S/R level, eventually it was out at 1.2870 (-10 pips below that ranging area). Still made nice pips!
"Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope."
  • #7,385
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:36am Jul 23, 2010 2:36am
Quoting Jliuuu
Thanks for the link! I'll really want to learn to read price action well.
the best price action thread is the james16 thread, so you might wanna check that one out too.
  • #7,386
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:40am Jul 23, 2010 2:40am
Quoting Custos
the best price action thread is the james16 thread, so you might wanna check that one out too.
Will do too. Thanks!
"Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope."
  • #7,387
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:57am Jul 23, 2010 2:57am
Quoting Mortician.
eur/aud DAILY/H4, bpc. Solid resistance right in front, though. RED line on daily chart. I will BE the trade as it gets closer to that red line.
TRADE UPDATE:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7378

Charts attached below, the EUR/AUD short has been triggered. the BPC on h4 completed.

The solid red line shows an area of support, as such, i will be more aggressive in quickly BE the trade. Anyways, chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD trade..gif Size: 22 KB
  • #7,388
  • Jul 23, 2010 3:07am Jul 23, 2010 3:07am
Quoting Mortician.
Both AUD/USD and AUD/CAD are getting ripe. I am more predisposed towards AUD/CAD...i think the setup is more robust.

AUD/USD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7361


AUD/CAD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7341

AUD/USD long position has been triggered.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD long.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #7,389
  • Jul 23, 2010 3:15am Jul 23, 2010 3:15am
Quoting Mortician.
EUR/USD trade. daily/h1 trigger. LONG POSITION. Trade update

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=274233
Closed out some position now at 1.2933 for +80 pips. Moved the rest to 1.2857. Will sell some more at the two subsequent RED lines...
  • #7,390
  • Jul 23, 2010 3:31am Jul 23, 2010 3:31am
Triangle formation on GBP/USD.. daily chart. I will like to see what happens at that confluence of lines.

chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD daily.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #7,391
  • Jul 23, 2010 3:47am Jul 23, 2010 3:47am
Quoting Mortician.
TRADE UPDATE:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7378

Charts attached below, the EUR/AUD short has been triggered. the BPC on h4 completed.

The solid red line shows an area of support, as such, i will be more aggressive in quickly BE the trade. Anyways, chart attached.
iF eur/aud retraced all the way to 1.4475, i will close it down for a loss of -60 pips.
  • #7,392
  • Jul 23, 2010 9:59am Jul 23, 2010 9:59am
Quoting Custos
I think this chart shows the concept I am talking about.

It's gbp/usd h1 chart. If you look on the left you see that price made a nice S/R level range. But it would be a kind of big S/R level range. Then price shot above that range and now I try to identify where price tested that range from above to find the "buyer's" range. In the end that "buyer's" range got touched to the pip.

Does that make it clearer?
Thanks for the chart Custos ... any interesting setup today.
  • #7,393
  • Jul 23, 2010 10:04am Jul 23, 2010 10:04am
Quoting MktScape
Thanks for the chart Custos ... any interesting setup today.
I got a setup for the brave ones

eur/gbp h1. But you would be standing against very big momentum. Trend is also down, so I am gonna take it, but with a very small lot-size.

And you, any setup?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp h1 23.7.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7,394
  • Jul 23, 2010 10:31am Jul 23, 2010 10:31am
Quoting Custos
I got a setup for the brave ones
Quoting Custos

eur/gbp h1. But you would be standing against very big momentum. Trend is also down, so I am gonna take it, but with a very small lot-size.

And you, any setup?


Yes ... momentum is extreme on this one .... for some time i was thinking that when there is such a high momentum then how about waiting for some sort of PA confirmation such as an exhaustion pin bar or bullish reversal bar? I mean i was thinking that should there by any rules as to when not take TTs and better wait for PA (just wondering).

At the same time the support level on the left of chart are quite strong as well and looks like it will hold.

I have downloaded, Sam Siedens video and listening to them at work today and when he raises a good point then i open up the player to see what he is talking about. I'll go back to the drawing board today or tomorrow to mark potential levels for next week .... as i now have been able to use MT4 in portable mode i.e. i can have same charts with analysis everywhere therefore i'll do the analysis .... enter limit order ... add the J16 Trade Manager .... and copy the whole thing into the mini-laptop i purchased recently and leave it running throughout next week like a VPS would do and then will check it from time to time during the week to see how the trades have played out ....because otherwise it get very difficult to monitor or take trades from my office and the only foreseeable solution to this predicament is to use my other laptop as a VPS.

Lets discuss some setups on the weekend.
  • #7,395
  • Jul 23, 2010 11:23am Jul 23, 2010 11:23am
Quoting Mortician.
iF eur/aud retraced all the way to 1.4475, i will close it down for a loss of -60 pips.
Closed out my EUR/AUD short for + 63 pips. Like i warned yesterday, i am wary of that red line(1.4321).

Trade alerted here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7387 (i showed the red line here on this chart, which is 1.4321.)

Oh yeah, i rescinded my decision to change my SL to 1.4475. i kept it where it was before: 1.4510. Changing SL after trade has been triggered(like i initially did) is a SIGN OF POOR JUDGEMENT AND WEAK NERVES. Good thing too that i follow trading discipline, because, EUR/AUD retreated all the way to 1.4499 and then shot back down, giving me good + 63 pips. You always relearn those old lessons again.
  • #7,396
  • Jul 23, 2010 11:40am Jul 23, 2010 11:40am
Quoting Mortician.
Closed out some position now at 1.2933 for +80 pips. Moved the rest to 1.2857. Will sell some more at the two subsequent RED lines...
the rest of my EUR/USD LONG position has been closed out on retracement. Made only +80 pips on this one with some lots = +40 pips on average.

Well, that is my friday: +63 pips in EUR/AUD, +40 pips in EUR/USD.

Hope everybody else have a good friday.
  • #7,397
  • Jul 23, 2010 2:39pm Jul 23, 2010 2:39pm
Hi People
This morning at the London open, I entered short on EURAUD (1.44060) and put the SL at 1.44750 and target at 1, 43450.
A few hours later ... stop out at 1.44750, then price achieves my target!


EURAUD why are you doing this?http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/thinking.gif

Yesterday also went short on EURUSD at 1.28600 and 1.29200 at Stop Out.
Two days less than good ... I expect a better in the future http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/thumbsup.gif

Have a nice weekend.
Jackk
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud 15.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #7,398
  • Jul 23, 2010 4:45pm Jul 23, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting MktScape

Yes ... momentum is extreme on this one .... for some time i was thinking that when there is such a high momentum then how about waiting for some sort of PA confirmation such as an exhaustion pin bar or bullish reversal bar? I mean i was thinking that should there by any rules as to when not take TTs and better wait for PA (just wondering).

At the same time the support level on the left of chart are quite strong as well and looks like it will hold.
yeah, pa confirmation is definitely a possibility. hm, however, I always feel kind of uncomfortable to get in, when price has already moved away from the level I was looking at. But definitely a possibility.


Quoting MktScape
[color=black][font=Verdana]I have downloaded, Sam Siedens video and listening to them at work today and when he raises a good point then i open up the player to see what he is talking about. I'll go back to the drawing board today or tomorrow to mark potential levels for next week .... as i now have been able to use MT4 in portable mode i.e. i can have same charts with analysis everywhere therefore i'll do the analysis .... enter limit order ... add the J16 Trade Manager .... and copy the whole thing into the mini-laptop i purchased recently and...
Yeah, you raise another point against waiting for PA. We all have other things to do. Do you wanna stare all day long at the chart for the perfect PA setup at a level? hm, I personally like to identify more levels in the meantime. But don't get me wrong, maybe in half a year I tell you the opposite, just my opinion right now at this stage.
  • #7,399
  • Jul 23, 2010 4:57pm Jul 23, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting Jackk
Hi People
This morning at the London open, I entered short on EURAUD (1.44060) and put the SL at 1.44750 and target at 1, 43450.
A few hours later ... stop out at 1.44750, then price achieves my target!


EURAUD why are you doing this?http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/thinking.gif

[color=#17365d][size=3][font=Calibri]Yesterday...
hm, I guess you tried entering that trade hector-style. I would have entered at about 1.4436, because it was the continuation part after a pullback to the retracement trendline. You sold after the market was going down quite a bit, never good in my opinion. Also you had a quite bullish bar when price reversed, this should have given you a heads up that price will reverse soon.
anyways, I suggest, try to enter more at the origin of the move, not after the move has already happened.

cheers
  • #7,400
  • Jul 23, 2010 6:06pm Jul 23, 2010 6:06pm
Quoting Custos
Yeah, you raise another point against waiting for PA. We all have other things to do. Do you wanna stare all day long at the chart for the perfect PA setup at a level? hm, I personally like to identify more levels in the meantime. But don't get me wrong, maybe in half a year I tell you the opposite, just my opinion right now at this stage.
Yea...this is the pain I've learned with forex compared to futures. If the ES, for example, hits a key area, it may dabble around for a bit until close (4 pm est) and even continue that crap the next morning. But in the globex (overnight) session, that pivot won't flip. In forex...price will hit a pivot and can dabble around for 12 hours straight, and then decide where it wants to go. Forex pivots can be invalidated anytime during the 24-hour session, despite the big volume being in the euro session. It makes life difficult if you zoom in like I do. My trading results have declined since doing touch entries without confirmation of any sort, so going to resort back to my old method while looking for something a little more time-efficient in the forex market.
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