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  • #7,361
  • Jul 22, 2010 12:01pm Jul 22, 2010 12:01pm
Trade i am waiting for:AUD/USD daily/h4

the daily and h4 chart is attached. The breakout already happened, now waiting for a pullback, continuation on h4.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD daily (2).gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD h4.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #7,362
  • Jul 22, 2010 12:07pm Jul 22, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting Mortician.
EUR/JPY daily, the breakout on daily or h4, followed by a B-P-C looks promising.
Update on previous EUR/JPY daily trade post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7342

The anticipated B-P-C happened on H4, entry was after the bpc, closed the trade at 50% = +94 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY H4 ENTRY (3).gif Size: 28 KB
  • #7,363
  • Jul 22, 2010 12:13pm Jul 22, 2010 12:13pm
AUD/CAD is almost getting ready. As per usual, B-P-C on daily or h4 will trigger trade.

Trade setup on WEEKLY chart here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7341
  • #7,364
  • Jul 22, 2010 12:36pm Jul 22, 2010 12:36pm
Hi , I am getting stop put whenever I place a trade with SL . How to avoid being stop out ? Are they stop hunting ?

Thanks
  • #7,365
  • Jul 22, 2010 12:59pm Jul 22, 2010 12:59pm
Quoting Ibz
Hi , I am getting stop put whenever I place a trade with SL . How to avoid being stop out ? Are they stop hunting ?

Thanks
Hi Ibz,
Your TF is very short for a ForexFreshman. I would suggest a minimum of H1 (you can s ... now for the stopping out problem you may want to use wider SL. However if you can post some charts on your entries and where your stops are then its would better.

ciao
  • #7,366
  • Jul 22, 2010 1:02pm Jul 22, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting Ibz
Hi , I am getting stop put whenever I place a trade with SL . How to avoid being stop out ? Are they stop hunting ?

Thanks
I don't know what you want me to tell you. You asked the same question last time. here was my answer: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6826

And are "they" stop hunting? The big boys couldn't care less about where you put your stop. I think the main activity of the big banks is to hedge for their clients, not to speculate.

Don't take the following sentence the wrong way: I would stop blaming some other guys (stop hunting...) for your loss and accept it as your mistake. If you realize that it's you who is making the mistake and not somebody else, then you made the first step. Now you need to find out where in your analysis you went wrong.
And let me tell you, the most important is to understand how the market works. So do some fundamental research. And forget indicators if you use any.

hope that helps.
  • #7,367
  • Jul 22, 2010 1:06pm Jul 22, 2010 1:06pm
Thanks ALL for your comments . I am using 15 mins chart with SL about 20 pips and using hector method . So if I use hr chart , SL is about how much ? Thanks
  • #7,368
  • Jul 22, 2010 1:17pm Jul 22, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting Ibz
Thanks ALL for your comments . I am using 15 mins chart with SL about 20 pips and using hector method . So if I use hr chart , SL is about how much ? Thanks
you probably put the sl at a wrong place. Post a chart with your reason for entry and sl. Then I can help you hopefully.
Cause maybe your sl is alright but your reason for entry is wrong. But I don't know, need to see a chart.

cheers
  • #7,369
  • Jul 22, 2010 1:22pm Jul 22, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting Ibz
Thanks ALL for your comments . I am using 15 mins chart with SL about 20 pips and using hector method . So if I use hr chart , SL is about how much ? Thanks
I don't know who hector is, but I can tell you that stop runs occur on all timeframes, and occur more often on the lower ones as it is easier for the big boys to push price around. You may have a perfectly good looking trade, and then it pushes against you for 1-3 bars, and then comes right back up to where you were. This is common. You can either plan for it, or adapt to it. Either works.

Also, this isn't preschool. Make the effort to attach a chart and maybe someone with more experience will make the effort to help you.
  • #7,370
  • Jul 22, 2010 1:33pm Jul 22, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting randomperson
I don't know who hector is, but I can tell you that stop runs occur on all timeframes, and occur more often on the lower ones as it is easier for the big boys to push price around. You may have a perfectly good looking trade, and then it pushes against you for 1-3 bars, and then comes right back up to where you were. This is common. You can either plan for it, or adapt to it. Either works.

Also, this isn't preschool. Make the effort to attach a chart and maybe someone with more experience will make the effort to help you.
well said
  • #7,371
  • Jul 22, 2010 3:34pm Jul 22, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting MktScape
I am attaching another example of traffic on the left. Now that we have been able to focus on this concept lets keep tabs on how the trades work out when there is clear space on the left compared to traffic as this will give us a better perspective.

For the chart that i have posted ... the congestion of the left would most likley to reduce the probability of higher R:R.

Lets watch and dicuss the results. In the mean time I'll watch/read further material from Sam Sieden and we can discuss further.
first I really gotta thank you for your space vs. traffic idea. It made me look further into everything and I think it made me realize something profound about the market and the levels we pick.

Sellers and buyers favor different levels in the same S/R level zone.

Take your traffic example. If you just connected the highs in your S/R level zone you got exactly the level where price stopped. (If you tell me which chart and timeframe that is, I can show it to you)
So I think for a resistance level (level for sellers) you only connect the highs and for a support level (level for buyers) you only connect the lows.
It does make sense, cause the highs symbolize the point when sellers turned the market and the lows symbolize the point when buyers turned the market.
Most likely they would turn it at a similar point again.
So I guess it is important to realize the general S/R level and then look if we are below or above this level and just connect the lows if above the level and only connect the highs if below the level.

what do you guys think?
  • #7,372
  • Jul 22, 2010 9:02pm Jul 22, 2010 9:02pm
Quoting Custos
first I really gotta thank you for your space vs. traffic idea. It made me look further into everything and I think it made me realize something profound about the market and the levels we pick.

Sellers and buyers favor different levels in the same S/R level zone.

Take your traffic example. If you just connected the highs in your S/R level zone you got exactly the level where price stopped. (If you tell me which chart and timeframe that is, I can show it to you)
So I think for a resistance level (level for sellers) you only connect the...
I think you may be overcomplicating it, but I'm going to stand on the sidelines and see what you two come up with

Personally I believe there are two types of pivots: One that has been tested relatively recently from both sides, and one that hasn't. The one that has is less likely to withstand the next test right? why? because bulls/bears have fought hard in that area and come up even. It'd be expected for that pivot to flip, and continue the direction to the next untested pivot. There is no one force waiting at those pivots that say "hey..we OWN this pivot." It's like a boxing match where no one wins, and no one in champion of that pivot.
  • #7,373
  • Jul 22, 2010 10:27pm Jul 22, 2010 10:27pm
Quoting randomperson
I think you may be overcomplicating it, but I'm going to stand on the sidelines and see what you two come up with

Personally I believe there are two types of pivots: One that has been tested relatively recently from both sides, and one that hasn't....
Hey Random,
I see your point with respect to pivots and to keep it simple .... i think this whole exercise is to be able to develop some sort of additional criterion which could identify a level with potentially higher R:R ratio, and see if the concept does actually works the way we think it should.

We all are aware of the idea of being picky in taking trades therefore, i am thinking why not to be a little more selective and be able to differentiate between a good level and not so good level, while keeping the whole concept simple.

However, the efficacy & effectiveness of this idea need to be evaluated over some time, we will keep our fingers crossed.

cheers
  • #7,374
  • Jul 22, 2010 10:32pm Jul 22, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting Custos
first I really gotta thank you for your space vs. traffic idea. It made me look further into everything and I think it made me realize something profound about the market and the levels we pick.

Sellers and buyers favor different levels in the same S/R level zone.

Take your traffic example. If you just connected the highs in your S/R level zone you got exactly the level where price stopped. (If you tell me which chart and timeframe that is, I can show it to you)
So I think for a resistance level (level for sellers) you only connect...
Hi Custos,
can you please post a chart with concept outlined above... thx.
  • #7,375
  • Jul 23, 2010 12:00am Jul 23, 2010 12:00am
Quoting randomperson
I think you may be overcomplicating it, but I'm going to stand on the sidelines and see what you two come up with

Personally I believe there are two types of pivots: One that has been tested relatively recently from both sides, and one that hasn't....
haha, I like overcomplicating things . At least it gives me the benefit of knowing later: yes, this idea works, or no this idea doesn't work. I am just trying to develop my understanding further.

of course there is no force telling who owns the pivot. I am just saying, maybe in that pivot, buyers and sellers favor a slightly different levels.

Anyways, just an idea.
  • #7,376
  • Jul 23, 2010 12:16am Jul 23, 2010 12:16am
Quoting MktScape
Hi Custos,
can you please post a chart with concept outlined above... thx.
I think this chart shows the concept I am talking about.

It's gbp/usd h1 chart. If you look on the left you see that price made a nice S/R level range. But it would be a kind of big S/R level range. Then price shot above that range and now I try to identify where price tested that range from above to find the "buyer's" range. In the end that "buyer's" range got touched to the pip.

Does that make it clearer?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h1 23.7.2010.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #7,377
  • Jul 23, 2010 12:32am Jul 23, 2010 12:32am
Both AUD/USD and AUD/CAD are getting ripe. I am more predisposed towards AUD/CAD...i think the setup is more robust.

AUD/USD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7361


AUD/CAD
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7341
  • #7,378
  • Jul 23, 2010 12:43am Jul 23, 2010 12:43am
eur/aud DAILY/H4, bpc. Solid resistance right in front, though. RED line on daily chart. I will BE the trade as it gets closer to that red line.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD daily chart.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD h4 trigger chart.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #7,379
  • Jul 23, 2010 1:27am Jul 23, 2010 1:27am
GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD too...getting ripe. I am far more predisposed towards GBP/NZD.

charts attached
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #7,380
  • Jul 23, 2010 1:53am Jul 23, 2010 1:53am
Quoting Custos
I think this chart shows the concept I am talking about.

It's gbp/usd h1 chart. If you look on the left you see that price made a nice S/R level range. But it would be a kind of big S/R level range. Then price shot above that range and now I try to identify where price tested that range from above to find the "buyer's" range. In the end that "buyer's" range got touched to the pip.

Does that make it clearer?
another example is cad/jpy m15. we only connect the lows and find a bounce right off that level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy m15 23.7.2010.gif Size: 25 KB
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