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  • #7,341
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:06pm Jul 20, 2010 11:06pm
Setups/breakouts i am looking forward to.

AUD/CAD breakout. weekly and daily chart.

The breakout of that triangle/pennant will be nice.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD daily setup.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #7,342
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:08pm Jul 20, 2010 11:08pm
EUR/JPY daily, the breakout on daily or h4, followed by a B-P-C looks promising.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,343
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:19pm Jul 20, 2010 11:19pm
EUR/CAD, daily/H4, just have to wait for a 1,2,3/bpc bullish formation. Hopefully, by thursday at the latest, it will be ready. If the 1,2,3/bpc formed on H1, i will still take it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,344
  • Jul 20, 2010 11:46pm Jul 20, 2010 11:46pm
Setups i am waiting for: EUR/AUD. Pennant breakout followed by a B-P-C. will be nice. daily chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD daily pennant.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #7,345
  • Jul 21, 2010 7:19am Jul 21, 2010 7:19am
Quoting Custos
So, I looked further into this supply & demand stuff and came to the conclusion that this filters out good vs. bad levels.
What one needs to do is to find a recent run and then look historically which wicks add up at that level.
Interestingly it really holds true that very often price will touch the level and return back from where it came. So this has in my opinion a high win loss and can have a really high R:R.


cheers
Hi Custos,

I also found some stuff on this supply/demand concept - it cleared up a lot of uncertainty re S/R levels. I think what stands out for me is the creation of imbalance at these levels and the ID'ing of that imbalance with candles formations.

I found quite a bit of information in this FF thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=216241

Example of shift in Supply Demand : gbp/usd chart attached (red arrows) yesterday and today...

Keep well
P
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 15min.jpg Size: 108 KB
  • #7,346
  • Jul 21, 2010 7:37am Jul 21, 2010 7:37am
Quoting Paulette
Hi Custos,

I also found some stuff on this supply/demand concept - it cleared up a lot of uncertainty re S/R levels. I think what stands out for me is the creation of imbalance at these levels and the ID'ing of that imbalance with candles formations.

I found quite a bit of information in this FF thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=216241

Example of shift in Supply Demand : gbp/usd chart attached (red arrows) yesterday and today...

Keep well
P
Great find Paulette .... I am going through it.
  • #7,347
  • Jul 21, 2010 7:41am Jul 21, 2010 7:41am
Quoting Custos
So, I looked further into this supply & demand stuff and came to the conclusion that this filters out good vs. bad levels.
What one needs to do is to find a recent run and then look historically which wicks add up at that level.
Interestingly it really holds true that very often price will touch the level and return back from where it came. So this has in my opinion a high win loss and can have a really high R:R.
Attached is eur/gbp. First we look where we have a recent run and then we find the demand/supply zone from which lots of moves happened....
by the way, my example worked out to the pip.
  • #7,348
  • Jul 21, 2010 7:42am Jul 21, 2010 7:42am
Quoting randomperson
Hi custos,
thanks for your idea....
yeah gonna give some more examples very soon. cheers
  • #7,349
  • Jul 21, 2010 7:43am Jul 21, 2010 7:43am
Quoting Paulette
Hi Custos,

I also found some stuff on this supply/demand concept - it cleared up a lot of uncertainty re S/R levels. I think what stands out for me is the creation of imbalance at these levels and the ID'ing of that imbalance with candles formations.

I found quite a bit of information in this FF thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=216241

Example of shift in Supply Demand : gbp/usd chart attached (red arrows) yesterday and today...

Keep well
P
thanks for the thread, gonna read it through.
  • #7,350
  • Jul 21, 2010 7:54am Jul 21, 2010 7:54am
Quoting Custos
by the way, my example worked out to the pip.
you are a trading scientist ..... i await a couple of examples as well.
  • #7,351
  • Jul 21, 2010 2:33pm Jul 21, 2010 2:33pm
sorry, took a bit longer than expected. But here are two examples.

First two charts show a d1 eur/usd supply/demand zone and the resulting S/R level. then again, since price is above, you take the lower end of the zone to get the S/R level.

The other two charts are similar. They are h1 eur/usd.

But of course it doesn't work out everytime like this, but surprisingly it does very often.

cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd d1 21.7.2010 base.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd d1 21.7.2010 level.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h1 21.7.2010.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h1 21.7.2010 level.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #7,352
  • Jul 22, 2010 7:11am Jul 22, 2010 7:11am
Quoting Custos
sorry, took a bit longer than expected. But here are two examples.

First two charts show a d1 eur/usd supply/demand zone and the resulting S/R level. then again, since price is above, you take the lower end of the zone to get the S/R level.

The other two charts are similar. They are h1 eur/usd.

But of course it doesn't work out everytime like this, but surprisingly it does very often.

cheers
Thanks custos. will have a look today or tomorrow.
Sorry been busy with personal stuff.

Anyone with some nice setups forming?
  • #7,353
  • Jul 22, 2010 7:14am Jul 22, 2010 7:14am
Quoting randomperson
Thanks custos. will have a look today or tomorrow.
Sorry been busy with personal stuff.

Anyone with some nice setups forming?
yep, eur/usd for a short, let's see how it works out.

and thanks for the recommedation of the reading price charts book. I am just reading it, very interesting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h1 22.7.2010.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #7,354
  • Jul 22, 2010 10:12am Jul 22, 2010 10:12am
Quoting Custos
sorry, took a bit longer than expected. But here are two examples.

First two charts show a d1 eur/usd supply/demand zone and the resulting S/R level. then again, since price is above, you take the lower end of the zone to get the S/R level.

The other two charts are similar. They are h1 eur/usd.

But of course it doesn't work out everytime like this, but surprisingly it does very often.

cheers
Thanks Custos. I watched a couple of Sam Siedens videos on supply demand concepts and noticed that he dosent appear to be zooming out enough to define the level which acted strongly both as support & as resistence. He appears to be taking swing highs where price reacted strongly and howfar it went from that point.

I think we discussed earlier that if we can incorporate this idea into how we define the level then it would quite powerful and would give a higher R:R ratio.

There is one more thing which i think need to be considered while identifying the S/R levels ...i.e. to watch for the traffic/congestion or space on the left .... because if there is more space on the left of chart then the chance of price going farther and longer increases significantly.

I hope i made myself clear ....

cheers
  • #7,355
  • Jul 22, 2010 10:32am Jul 22, 2010 10:32am
Quoting MktScape

There is one more thing which i think need to be considered while identifying the S/R levels ...i.e. to watch for the traffic/congestion or space on the left .... because if there is more space on the left of chart then the chance of price going farther and longer increases significantly.

I hope i made myself clear ....

cheers
hm, can you post a chart?
  • #7,356
  • Jul 22, 2010 10:33am Jul 22, 2010 10:33am
Quoting randomperson
hope all is well mktscape. i occasionally overwork myself and get eye strain, where I essentially feel dizzy sitting in front of the computer. make sure your trading room is well ventilated too, as stale and congested air can lead to drowsiness which can affect your trading

Thanks for your suggestion, yeah I am ensuring proper ventilation in my room. And thanks for the suggestion on that book .... i did came across it sometime ago but didnt read it now i'll take some time read it.

Ciao
  • #7,357
  • Jul 22, 2010 10:42am Jul 22, 2010 10:42am
EUR/USD trade. daily/h1 trigger. LONG POSITION. Trade update

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=274233
  • #7,358
  • Jul 22, 2010 11:03am Jul 22, 2010 11:03am
Quoting Custos
hm, can you post a chart?
ok here we go. Example of traffic/congestion & clear space on the left.
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  • #7,359
  • Jul 22, 2010 11:13am Jul 22, 2010 11:13am
Quoting MktScape
ok here we go. Example of traffic/congestion & clear space on the left.
hm, okay, I know what you mean.
That is a great point for discussion.

Is it better to have traffic to the left or to not have traffic?
There are arguments for both scenarios I think.
If price had lots of problems, meaning lots of touches and bounces off a level, then it should have troubles again in future (argument for having traffic).
If price didn't stay long at a level historically and either broke through or jumped off that level in a very strong way, then it should do that again, cause price doesn't seem to like that level. (argument for having space).

So is it better that price stays at a level and bounces off a lot of times, or is it better that price shows a strong reaction each time it visits that level leaving lots of space around it?

Honestly, I don't know, but it is a great discussion point.
  • #7,360
  • Jul 22, 2010 11:35am Jul 22, 2010 11:35am
Quoting Custos
hm, okay, I know what you mean.
That is a great point for discussion.

Is it better to have traffic to the left or to not have traffic?
There are arguments for both scenarios I think.
If price had lots of problems, meaning lots of touches and bounces off a level, then it should have troubles again in future (argument for having traffic).
If price didn't stay long at a level historically and either broke through or jumped off that level in a very strong way, then it should do that again, cause price doesn't seem to like that level. (argument for...
I am attaching another example of traffic on the left. Now that we have been able to focus on this concept lets keep tabs on how the trades work out when there is clear space on the left compared to traffic as this will give us a better perspective.

For the chart that i have posted ... the congestion of the left would most likley to reduce the probability of higher R:R.

Lets watch and dicuss the results. In the mean time I'll watch/read further material from Sam Sieden and we can discuss further.
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