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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,081
  • Jul 19, 2010 12:41pm Jul 19, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting calderone
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6497

longer term trade.

Great job my friend.
I'm in this too, with the whole 200+ pip stop. Would really like a retrace this week to add another 1% with a smaller stop. 200 pip stops give really bad RR unless it tanks indefinitely.
  • #4,082
  • Jul 19, 2010 1:05pm Jul 19, 2010 1:05pm
Quoting shahab8b
Thanks Saxon.

BTW, any good set up you are looking at? I'm looking at Kiwi , Weekly pivot+S>R to short.
Not yet. All of my targets are still a ways off a bit. I am trying to trade a little longer-term this week and keep my trade turnover at a minimum. I think I set the world record last week for the most trades in a week I am still waiting for EU and GU to head a little more north to hit my LT targets. Same with UCAD. Pivs are going to reset in a little and I might get some confluence to trade short-term. I like your NU trade
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  • #4,083
  • Jul 19, 2010 1:30pm Jul 19, 2010 1:30pm
Is this a bearish wedge forming on a/u at the moment?

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It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #4,084
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:10pm Jul 19, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting calderone
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6497

longer term trade.

Great job my friend.
Thanks Mike, hope we can get a good entry on Aussie and Kiwi.
  • #4,085
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:11pm Jul 19, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting Saxon
Not yet. All of my targets are still a ways off a bit. I am trying to trade a little longer-term this week and keep my trade turnover at a minimum. I think I set the world record last week for the most trades in a week I am still waiting for EU and GU to head a little more north to hit my LT targets. Same with UCAD. Pivs are going to reset in a little and I might get some confluence to trade short-term. I like your NU trade

Great charts Saxon, as always .
  • #4,086
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:13pm Jul 19, 2010 4:13pm
Quoting Dhb
Is this a bearish wedge forming on a/u at the moment?

Attachment

Attachment
Nice Wedge, I'm watching the same thing, only I like to see it going a bit higher, at least close to w.p.
  • #4,087
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:19pm Jul 19, 2010 4:19pm
A/J

as expected
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  • #4,088
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:23pm Jul 19, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting shahab8b
Nice Wedge, I'm watching the same thing, only I like to see it going a bit higher, at least close to w.p.
So far I like my entry on the aud/usd....

.8710
Dr. C
  • #4,089
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:23pm Jul 19, 2010 4:23pm
G/J
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  • #4,090
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:23pm Jul 19, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting cvcamper
So far I like my entry on the aud/usd....

.8710

well done, why dont you tell us how you picked that entry?
  • #4,091
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:57pm Jul 19, 2010 4:57pm
AUDCAD,

Last time we traded that triangle on the breakout into the downside,#2827

this time it might reverse after the re-test.
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  • #4,092
  • Jul 19, 2010 5:19pm Jul 19, 2010 5:19pm
One of the simple ways that newbies can use, is looking at PA at daily pivot. If you get a good bounce from daily pivot there is a good chance that your trade becomes a winner.

Chart : Cable 15min
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  • #4,093
  • Jul 19, 2010 7:08pm Jul 19, 2010 7:08pm
U/Cad
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  • #4,094
  • Jul 19, 2010 7:21pm Jul 19, 2010 7:21pm
Cable,
It looks like a bearish flag, but it's sitting on a strong S level. Watch out for a possible breakout either side of the short term consolidation pattern
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  • #4,095
  • Edited 7:29pm Jul 19, 2010 7:28pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting shahab8b
A/J

as expected
For AJ, check out the daily (for CJ as well). Both signal strong bearish move. (three black crows)

Edit: Same thing for UC as well. Three white soldiers signals some bullish movement.
  • #4,096
  • Jul 19, 2010 7:58pm Jul 19, 2010 7:58pm
Quoting shahab8b
U/Cad
If S at 1.0496 breaks the triangle will be invalidated.
  • #4,097
  • Jul 19, 2010 8:01pm Jul 19, 2010 8:01pm
Quoting aragorn123
For AJ, check out the daily (for CJ as well). Both signal strong bearish move. (three black crows)

Edit: Same thing for UC as well. Three white soldiers signals some bullish movement.

Right, but I'll be more careful with immediate bearish move in commodity currencies, A/U upward move is more than expected, it almost changed the bias to the upside again.
  • #4,098
  • Jul 19, 2010 9:35pm Jul 19, 2010 9:35pm
Cable, watch the S turned R (1.5275) closely might be a good short opportunity
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  • #4,099
  • Jul 19, 2010 9:53pm Jul 19, 2010 9:53pm
Hi Shahab,
Fan of your threads. Could you give some advise on where to place the SL for the GU short? I would also be interested in hearing of what is your longer-term view on the GU? I know you're a little bearish on risky assets, but the pound has showed some strength the last weeks..
  • #4,100
  • Edited 2:09am Jul 20, 2010 2:08am | Edited 2:09am
That a/u triangle sure broke hard, didn't it? Not in the direction I anticipated though. It even did a proper bearish retest after the breakout before it's reversal. I'm sure a lot of ppl got stopped out during that reversal back up.

Not sure what e/c will do. The previous two upward sloping wedges/flags were continuation patterns. Will be interesting to see what this third one will do. If it breaks out downward, I would expect a retest of the 1.3425-75 area...

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