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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,061
  • Edited Jul 19, 2010 3:40am Jul 18, 2010 11:09pm | Edited Jul 19, 2010 3:40am
Hi Shahab
Thanks for such great calls, i dont now how you use RSI with support and resistance lines? and why you use RSI 14?
Can i post my setups and charts here, can i... ;-)?
Thanks again for everything.
Follow the rules and be successful.
  • #4,062
  • Jul 19, 2010 3:14am Jul 19, 2010 3:14am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Low,

Thanks for your appreciation. They are not newbies, as you need to have at least 4 vouchers to be able to rate. But that's OK, I'm sure I'll hear from them soon.
BTW, you are making great calls, I've seen your charts in Saxon's and Coke's thread. Well done
Thanks Shahab,

I know it's hard work running your own operation, and posting here to help others (plus trading and your own life), so don't let the nay-sayer's get you down.
  • #4,063
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:02am Jul 19, 2010 4:02am
Quoting shahab8b
haha, I've just noticed that someone rated terrible again, after "nine" 5 star rating. Well what to say, I'll be more than happy if these guys post their opinion in my thread so we see what is their interpretation of trading. I wonder how an approach based on Sentiment and TA with use of TL, S/R, Fib, EW, Pivot, Classic and Hamonic patterns can be treated like that.To be honest with you what's happening here is so discouraging.
So I take it you don't receive an email from Twee to say who has voted and what rating they give the thread since you are the thread starter? I don't know if you were around when that furore happened with the news articles. You weren't able to see who voted initially but when it became public there were a fair few people scrambling to delete all their "not useful" votes. I think there may have been an option at first to allow people to delete all of their votes. One minute some people had hundreds/thousands of votes and the next minute they had none so it was pretty obvious to anyone with a keen eye who had been voting down articles and voting up their own submissions. They weren't voting on the quality of the article - they were competing with each other.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #4,064
  • Jul 19, 2010 4:48am Jul 19, 2010 4:48am
Well ask any shopkeepers, they can tell you horror stories about how "the customer is always right". You don't have to make bad calls to receive bad ratings. Funny reading:

Customers view dining out holistically. You may be the best waiter in the world and give flawless service but if any one part of a customer’s dining experience gets screwed up, even if it’s beyond your control, you could still receive a poor gratuity. Whether it’s a rude hostess, clumsy bus boy, poorly made drink, wilted radicchio, chilly dining room, or lumpy mashed potatoes – any one of these things can spoil a patron’s night.

I think it leads to nowhere to question why people decide the way they do. If you don't want bad ratings, remove the rating and that's it. You'll have bigger problems when a customer calls you angrily after he lost a couple of thou following your call. To illustrate, how your abilities as an analyst, and the way people may vote are completely unrelated: I don't remember how I rated both of your threads, but I remember I had a bad day for some other reason and, I was emotionally hit by the fact that maybe that helpful kindness you both shown, was merely a bait for your long planned commercial service. In other words, I was faced with my own naiveness and stupidity, and I hated it. I voted against those feelings, and it wasn't 5 stars for sure. I wouldn't change it even if I could, and I'd tell you the same thing face to face.

And? Does it make you a worse analyst? Does it influence your abilty to asses charts? Well it shouldn't. Treat it as "noise", which, if doesn't kill you, will make you stronger.

Geez, will your buddies have to cheer you up after a long losing period too? Get a grip on yourself. Ignore that bullshit some people pour at you. Well, including me too.

Opinions differ, and we'll have to accept that. Just think about an old fashioned exchange - whenever you decide to buy, you need someone who's willing to sell. You reckon price will go up so you buy. The other party thinks price won't go up so he sells. Obviously, one of you must be wrong. But there's nothing wrong with that.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #4,065
  • Jul 19, 2010 5:37am Jul 19, 2010 5:37am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Patience ,

Nice to see you here, thanks for the post.
I've been thinking I miss posting whatever crosses my mind. The thread is located in commercial while it has nothing to do with our service.Well that's due to my status now.And I just noticed a person rated my thread "terrible" at the fist day it has been moved here, that was a quick judgment!! I think there is a competition going on here, as the threads ordered in ranking(starts) in commercial from top to bottom.
Shahab: For what its worth - I am a newbie and have spent a long time here on FF looking for a reliable consistent thread that I can learn from whilst making my percentages as well. I was following you on your previous thread and now here - let me be quite clear I have found no better - your calls are top class with nice logical explanations. For those that criticise, and fail to publish, give them the attention that they deserve - none! Good luck and keep up the good work. Regards Bill
  • #4,066
  • Jul 19, 2010 5:56am Jul 19, 2010 5:56am
Shahab, don't let a few poor ratings get you down. My guess is that those who rated this thread as being poor, did so out of envy, and because they cannot keep their emotions in check, both during trading and on forums. It's a mere symptom of a problem these people are probably having. For what it's worth, please know that if I was able to rate threads, I'd give this one 5 stars.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #4,067
  • Jul 19, 2010 6:06am Jul 19, 2010 6:06am
Quoting Patience
So I take it you don't receive an email from Twee to say who has voted and what rating they give the thread since you are the thread starter?...

Hi patience,
No I dont receive that as the thread starter. I hope that Twee pays attention to this matter.
  • #4,068
  • Jul 19, 2010 6:09am Jul 19, 2010 6:09am
Quoting Malinbeg
Shahab: For what its worth - I am a newbie and have spent a long time here on FF looking for a reliable consistent thread that I can learn from whilst making my percentages as well. I was following you on your previous thread and now here - let me be quite clear I have found no better - your calls are top class with nice logical explanations. For those that criticise, and fail to publish, give them the attention that they deserve - none! Good luck and keep up the good work. Regards Bill
Hi Malinbeg,

Thank you for your appreciation.We are all learning from each other, I hope that the techniques that I'm sharing here help others to improve on their trading skills.
  • #4,069
  • Jul 19, 2010 6:09am Jul 19, 2010 6:09am
shabab - when you enter these trades, what are you looking for as your targets? I can understand looking at the COT reports and saying there are net shorts or the index is overbought but some of the earlier threads suggested 50pip trades based off that. Wouldn't it make more sense to target the next SR line?
  • #4,070
  • Jul 19, 2010 6:14am Jul 19, 2010 6:14am
Quoting Dhb
Shahab, don't let a few poor ratings get you down. My guess is that those who rated this thread as being poor, did so out of envy, and because they cannot keep their emotions in check, both during trading and on forums. It's a mere symptom of a problem these people are probably having. For what it's worth, please know that if I was able to rate threads, I'd give this one 5 stars.

Hi Dhb,
Thanks for your kind comments.

BTW, you always have great trade set ups, please do share them here whenever you like
  • #4,071
  • Jul 19, 2010 6:19am Jul 19, 2010 6:19am
U/Chf,

A couple of hrs ago I suggested to buy at 1.0450.It turned out to be a good trade. I picked that level due to the R that had potential to turn into S around that level.

As I explained a couple of times here, always look for a S/R that has been broken , then trade the re-test of that level.
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  • #4,072
  • Edited 6:38am Jul 19, 2010 6:27am | Edited 6:38am
Quoting shahab8b
U/Chf,

A couple of hrs ago I suggested to buy at 1.0450.It turned out to be a good trade. I picked that level due to the R that had potential to turn into S around that level.

As I explained a couple of times here, always look for a S/R that has been broken , then trade the re-test of that level.
For those that might be interested, we didn't trade long u/Chf, instead we traded long EURCHF due to beak out of the triangle and re-test of the R turned S
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  • #4,073
  • Jul 19, 2010 6:38am Jul 19, 2010 6:38am
U/Cad,

Note that the previous S at 1.0575 acted as R.

I like the idea of going long, we can try it at W/M pivot confluence around 1.0480.
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  • #4,074
  • Jul 19, 2010 7:28am Jul 19, 2010 7:28am
Quoting shahab8b
haha, I've just noticed that someone rated terrible again, after "nine" 5 star rating. Well what to say, I'll be more than happy if these guys post their opinion in my thread so we see what is their interpretation of trading. I wonder how an approach based on Sentiment and TA with use of TL, S/R, Fib, EW, Pivot, Classic and Hamonic patterns can be treated like that.To be honest with you what's happening here is so discouraging.
Shahab. Please don't feel despondent because of a few negative ratings. I have long heard that FF is a place full of bickering and people bashing each other because of ego problems. I am sure you also know that many people learn a lot from your thread and appreciate your time and effort. That is perhaps the more/most important thing?! Keep up your good work.
  • #4,075
  • Jul 19, 2010 12:15pm Jul 19, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting Patience
So I take it you don't receive an email from Twee to say who has voted and what rating they give the thread since you are the thread starter? I don't know if you were around when that furore happened with the news articles. You weren't able to see who voted initially but when it became public there were a fair few people scrambling to delete all their "not useful" votes. I think there may have been an option at first to allow people to delete all of their votes. One minute some people had hundreds/thousands of votes and the next minute they had...
I gave it 5 Would give it 10 if that were an option
  • #4,076
  • Jul 19, 2010 12:18pm Jul 19, 2010 12:18pm
Should euraud get down there, there might be an opportunity to go long in the 1.4700-50 area. If it does bounce, it might go back up as far as 1.5300, if the channel I've drawn is valid.

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It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #4,077
  • Jul 19, 2010 12:35pm Jul 19, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting SanMiguel
shabab - when you enter these trades, what are you looking for as your targets? I can understand looking at the COT reports and saying there are net shorts or the index is overbought but some of the earlier threads suggested 50pip trades based off that. Wouldn't it make more sense to target the next SR line?

TP and SL should be adjusted according to your trade plan and TF you are trading. Also it's not a fixed # of pips in all the pairs.

I like to trade based on 4hr TF, and I usually set my SL according to the previous S/R and ADR or ATR (4hr/daily). For TP, depends on the trade model: for a Swing trade usually the next 1st or 2nd weekly S/R or next S/R leve based on chart (depends on which one is greater than my SL, as most of times I prefer to have TP>SL). For a position trade TP will be more than that , usually I take two positions and close one at TP=SL and open TP for the 2nd one, moving the SL based on 4hr/daily LSR.
  • #4,078
  • Jul 19, 2010 12:41pm Jul 19, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting Saxon
I gave it 5 Would give it 10 if that were an option

Thanks Saxon.

BTW, any good set up you are looking at? I'm looking at Kiwi , Weekly pivot+S>R to short.
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  • #4,079
  • Jul 19, 2010 1:59pm Jul 19, 2010 1:59pm
Keep doing your thing shahab. Good job brother
  • #4,080
  • Jul 19, 2010 2:34pm Jul 19, 2010 2:34pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6497

longer term trade.

Great job my friend.
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