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  • #272,621
  • Jul 18, 2010 2:51pm Jul 18, 2010 2:51pm
  •  Now
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: 'I should have taken the money' | 654 Posts
Quoting SkyzerFX
Everyone can draw different lines on the same chart..

It's nice to see how actual downtrend looks like uptrend too you..

Dollar going to ZERO.
zero $ for zero €
Being right is one, taking it from the table is two.
  • #272,622
  • Edited 3:41pm Jul 18, 2010 3:30pm | Edited 3:41pm
Afternoon all, really excited for the coming week. I still have a bearish sentiment... looking for long entry. really interested in the stress test.
  • #272,623
  • Jul 18, 2010 3:30pm Jul 18, 2010 3:30pm
15 pip candle entered for short at 7.30pm gmt. Long trigger around 1.2890 area, I don't think it has been determined yet. Overall I am still long, if we get an initial short, it will I feel not be that big a short.
  • #272,624
  • Jul 18, 2010 3:37pm Jul 18, 2010 3:37pm
Hi guys,
Here the current situation.
As expected a couple of weeks ago they struggled in the areas marked in yellow.
About EURUSD, I expect a touch at 1.3105 from where it should be, at first instance rejected.
The support level is 1.2803. Below this level, the market returns in the battlefield area marked in yellow.

The USDCHF has found in the last hours of Friday the force to regain back the yellow zone.
Personally I think that the market will again test the minimum of last week, especially if EURUSD will find the force to reach the maximum indicated above.

I remember as always that the areas marked in yellow on both chats are battlefields and that the weekly candles on those charts will be completed on Sunday at 24.00h (NY TIme).

Good trading to all
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-USDCHF Weekly (18-07-2010).JPG Size: 315 KB
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #272,625
  • Jul 18, 2010 3:44pm Jul 18, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting mfoste1
Hey guys, I hope everyone had a fun weekend. I had a nice 5 hr long drive back from Cincinatti this morning, where I had a lotta time to do some thinking about the direction of this pair lol. I apologize in advance if I offend anyone by the length of this post.

The more and more I look at these charts and spec positioning data and fundamental data that is coming (ie. bank stress test), the more I am becoming bullish on this pair in the short term, mainly this week. A lot of shorts cut their positions last week as indicated by COT. I think this...
Based on what your saying a long straddle could be a good play to expire in a month. However, I think that if the results come in good. The knee jerk reaction will be positive for the euro for a while. Then, as we have usually seen through this crisis, panic, doubt, and realization will set in and they will question the stringency of the stress tests and we will see a resumption of the downtrend. The underlying fundamentals have not changed too much from the evidence that we have received. Unless, we receive evidence that the Eurozone can avert a double dip and outpace the U.S. economy it aint over.
  • #272,626
  • Jul 18, 2010 3:48pm Jul 18, 2010 3:48pm
I think the "stress test" is being priced in in this run up. Rumor has been 11 big boy banks are in serious doo doo.

As a whole, Europe's banks have not raised as much new capital as U.S. firms since the crisis. They have also been slower to write off bad loans and have been entangled in local and regional problems whose overall impact remains unclear. The International Monetary Fund in particular has criticized their continued reliance on government funding and short-term help from the European Central Bank as merely delaying an inevitable reckoning.

Of course a rosy picture will try to be painted, but this kind of run up will sooner or later have to meet stiff resistance. Some think later, I think sooner. US slow down is bad for USD, but it's worse for everyone else. The USD is the oil that keeps the worlds engines running. Just .02 cents worth
  • #272,627
  • Jul 18, 2010 3:52pm Jul 18, 2010 3:52pm
Hello please check my chart there are possible Head and shoulders in Eu h1 chart there are two neckline if it will break 2956 then we will might test 3020 or above and if it break 2880 then we might test 2820 or 2750 tomorrow but more possibility are that we will go down side because 200 ema is on lower side and we are already on lower side current price is 2904 so there is possibility that in morning market will try to achieve high and then go down all the way to 2820-2750 good luck....


Ub
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu.JPG Size: 155 KB
  • #272,628
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:13pm Jul 18, 2010 4:13pm
2898 could offer bull support. if not next bull mid next below 2846.9... its so close to next baby mid it will be hard to c (2904). below 2898 is one bear toe in the door.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #272,629
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:22pm Jul 18, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
nutz intact. 2922 + slip bounce expected. as well as 2803 and 2769... got a few tl and support to fight..
2898 could be first test. pa there is a key

respect at 2904 (mid) puts target 2 on track.. but 2898 is expected to be some support. and key to whos got the ball atm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #272,630
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:31pm Jul 18, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
2898 could offer bull support. if not next bull mid next below 2846.9... its so close to next baby mid it will be hard to c (2904). below 2898 is one bear toe in the door.
Dear Gator,

Please read my post on last page and check my chart and correct me if i am wrong in charting or in points

thanks

Ub
  • #272,631
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:37pm Jul 18, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
not playing this.. still waiting for 2968.7 plus some slip on jw chart. if this is the case left shoulder atm? just kidding. im a scalper till bank stress test. looking for clues after test. a trip down to dpp would do this. there is a tl there also. probably will go north if we retrace to 2970. then north again. ill be on the side of tl the candle is on.

edit, if pa doesn't change 3281
guess it was. r just completed for short armed people. but he may be a basketball player with more to come.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #272,632
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:48pm Jul 18, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting ubaidahsan
Hello please check my chart there are possible Head and shoulders in Eu h1 chart there are two neckline if it will break 2956 then we will might test 3020 or above and if it break 2880 then we might test 2820 or 2750 tomorrow but more possibility are that we will go down side because 200 ema is on lower side and we are already on lower side current price is 2904 so there is possibility that in morning market will try to achieve high and then go down all the way to 2820-2750 good luck....


Ub
bounce off a tl is normal like your showing it. i thought friday we would retrace. how much is the question. things are messed up cause everyone is waiting for the stress test. im kinda skeptical because sometimes leaks allow big boys to get an early start. im just scalping as said. im have no st bias,, just following the path..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #272,633
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:51pm Jul 18, 2010 4:51pm
XE. has it at 1.2893 atm.

http://www.xe.com/
  • #272,634
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:53pm Jul 18, 2010 4:53pm
if we break here at 12889 wouldn't that make this H&S valid? i.e no gap to fill for a day or so...
  • #272,635
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:53pm Jul 18, 2010 4:53pm
possible closed gap tonight? please opinions thanks
LOL
  • #272,636
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:57pm Jul 18, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting karimfx
possible closed gap tonight? please opinions thanks

If it breaks 2888-78 range...very possible. Its been strange though as I have learned the hard way.
  • #272,637
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:58pm Jul 18, 2010 4:58pm
support
38,2% fib (1,2803) or low 16/july @ 1,289?
  • #272,638
  • Jul 18, 2010 4:58pm Jul 18, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting ubaidahsan
Hello please check my chart there are possible Head and shoulders in Eu h1 chart ....


Ub
H1 also has macd divergence indicating a drop
  • #272,639
  • Jul 18, 2010 5:03pm Jul 18, 2010 5:03pm
Assuming price continues its steep upwards movement, anticipate price to bounce off the lower dotted trendline and continue LONG. H1 If all plays out as expected look for 1.30 to be tested again and maybe 1.3050 to be reached.
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  • #272,640
  • Jul 18, 2010 5:05pm Jul 18, 2010 5:05pm
got respect where i needed it for target 2 and 3.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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