A Word About Technicals:
Except for one, every technical there ever was, is, or will be is based on price......They are all derived from some mathematical screwing around with the price itself. They just "convert" the picture of the waves created by the price, into some other picture with the intent of making something more recognizable. And then users of these technicals make the "leap of faith" and start using them as "predictors"!
No one knows where the price will be a day hence, or an hour hence, or even a few minutes hence.....except maybe the profs when they are engaged in, or about to engage in, a price drive one way or the other. All that the tecnicals accomplish is to "weaken the muscles" that allow you to see PA for what it really is, and to make you ever more dependent on the technicals themselves.....a plan for disaster.
Any experienced trader that has used much of the basketfull of technicals at one time or another, will tell you of the many times they failed as price soared or dived far and totally contrary to what the technicals "predicted". And they will tell you of the "revelation" they had afterwards, looking at the price chart alone, saying to themselves "Gee, I could never have known in advance this was going to happen, (no one could have) but once it started I should have seen its potential!"
I can hear ddaytrader saying, "Clear the chart of everything but the candles and the Dragon. Then learn to trade SonicR the pure and successful way. Learn to recognize the good waves we trade. Learn to see from the PA track itself, the past clues as to future targets."
The ONLY technical that is NOT based on price is VOLUME! Unfortunately, forex liquidity/data providers give out just the volume of trades on their individual system/server. It is not market wide data, nor does it disclose the size of the trades. This can be very misleading, therefore. Here is an example....
You see a very tall candle reach upwards, then another! You see the "volume" bigger than previous TFs and growing. And you think to yourself there is a lot of buying going on! In reality, the drive up in price is manipulated.....some outfit is supplying/taking out every order up to their desired price target, investing whatever monies is required to do so. And at their price target they already have a sell order sitting....for BILLIONS! And when their single huge order is filled it is during a very small "volume" bar, because very few trades happened to take place at that very highest pip of the run!
Yes, that could happen. Perhaps the example employs some exaggeration, but only what was necessary to get the point across.
There is one feature of forex "volume" that is valid, however. That is the RELATIVE INCREASE/DECREASE in activity that happens from time to time. It is a harbinger of something to come, because it says traders are flocking in/or not......for some reason. It does not say which way the price will be going, nor when. It provides a clue, that is all.
We all need to learn to read PA....good waves from no waves and from bad waves, and where are S&R and consolidation levels. PA is a pure technical. It is the only pure technical. And if there is any technical that might "add" something to the skill of reading PA, it might be NVO, because "volume", even just trade counts, is the only other technical NOT BASED on PA. And NVO is unique in that it most clearly shows the only characteristic of forex volume that is valid.....relative increases/decreases in the amount of trading occurring. At certain times during the market day, such information may become more important than at other times. And when trading relatively increases at those certain times, and at significant points in the creation of PA waves, then we do have a separate clue.
Congratulations to all who made succesful SonicR trades this week, and/or who managed their SonicR trades successfully to mimimize losses.
Good trading to all next week!
P.S. The attached pics show interesting situations. With EU, PA reached and failed at a whole number high. Overall PA in that area is beginning to take on the look of a possible future Head and shoulders. Meanwhile, the NVO study shows inceased trading as the prof drove the price to its final high.....and even more trading on the first leg down off that high! With EJ, PA broke lower TL and has come up to retest it. Look at the NVO activity on the first leg off the highs that broke the TL. With either pair, such activity mkes one wonder if next week will start with a gap down.
Except for one, every technical there ever was, is, or will be is based on price......They are all derived from some mathematical screwing around with the price itself. They just "convert" the picture of the waves created by the price, into some other picture with the intent of making something more recognizable. And then users of these technicals make the "leap of faith" and start using them as "predictors"!
No one knows where the price will be a day hence, or an hour hence, or even a few minutes hence.....except maybe the profs when they are engaged in, or about to engage in, a price drive one way or the other. All that the tecnicals accomplish is to "weaken the muscles" that allow you to see PA for what it really is, and to make you ever more dependent on the technicals themselves.....a plan for disaster.
Any experienced trader that has used much of the basketfull of technicals at one time or another, will tell you of the many times they failed as price soared or dived far and totally contrary to what the technicals "predicted". And they will tell you of the "revelation" they had afterwards, looking at the price chart alone, saying to themselves "Gee, I could never have known in advance this was going to happen, (no one could have) but once it started I should have seen its potential!"
I can hear ddaytrader saying, "Clear the chart of everything but the candles and the Dragon. Then learn to trade SonicR the pure and successful way. Learn to recognize the good waves we trade. Learn to see from the PA track itself, the past clues as to future targets."
The ONLY technical that is NOT based on price is VOLUME! Unfortunately, forex liquidity/data providers give out just the volume of trades on their individual system/server. It is not market wide data, nor does it disclose the size of the trades. This can be very misleading, therefore. Here is an example....
You see a very tall candle reach upwards, then another! You see the "volume" bigger than previous TFs and growing. And you think to yourself there is a lot of buying going on! In reality, the drive up in price is manipulated.....some outfit is supplying/taking out every order up to their desired price target, investing whatever monies is required to do so. And at their price target they already have a sell order sitting....for BILLIONS! And when their single huge order is filled it is during a very small "volume" bar, because very few trades happened to take place at that very highest pip of the run!
Yes, that could happen. Perhaps the example employs some exaggeration, but only what was necessary to get the point across.
There is one feature of forex "volume" that is valid, however. That is the RELATIVE INCREASE/DECREASE in activity that happens from time to time. It is a harbinger of something to come, because it says traders are flocking in/or not......for some reason. It does not say which way the price will be going, nor when. It provides a clue, that is all.
We all need to learn to read PA....good waves from no waves and from bad waves, and where are S&R and consolidation levels. PA is a pure technical. It is the only pure technical. And if there is any technical that might "add" something to the skill of reading PA, it might be NVO, because "volume", even just trade counts, is the only other technical NOT BASED on PA. And NVO is unique in that it most clearly shows the only characteristic of forex volume that is valid.....relative increases/decreases in the amount of trading occurring. At certain times during the market day, such information may become more important than at other times. And when trading relatively increases at those certain times, and at significant points in the creation of PA waves, then we do have a separate clue.
Congratulations to all who made succesful SonicR trades this week, and/or who managed their SonicR trades successfully to mimimize losses.
Good trading to all next week!
P.S. The attached pics show interesting situations. With EU, PA reached and failed at a whole number high. Overall PA in that area is beginning to take on the look of a possible future Head and shoulders. Meanwhile, the NVO study shows inceased trading as the prof drove the price to its final high.....and even more trading on the first leg down off that high! With EJ, PA broke lower TL and has come up to retest it. Look at the NVO activity on the first leg off the highs that broke the TL. With either pair, such activity mkes one wonder if next week will start with a gap down.
