Good morning,
Asia remains in a quandry. There is not enough world demand for export reliant economies as consumer credit driven spending is non existent.
Although the US treasury did not name China a currency manipulator there must have been some back room deal for this to not have happened. The Obama administration needs domestic job growth so they may have told China no more or they would act.
China has a severe problem coming at it like a freight train.
This would suggest the crack in the AUD is just a matter of time. China can recirculate its trade surplus that has been used to manipulate the USD into the Euro and the AUD, but no soverign has inexhaustable reserves. Nor will Europe tolerate getting singled out for long as the reciever of trade imbalances.
The rising Euro will only lead to cointinued deflationary pressure in Euroland and the advent of soverign default will cast its shadow again, as lack of world competitiveness in southern Europe comes home to roost.
Deflationary forces are coming to bear and there is nothing the Central Bankers can do about it.
As to trading, if it weren't for mistakes, trading would be too easy. I missed the move in the EURO/AUD. Why? A simple scanning error in the charts spread across the screen. In the past that chart has been kept for observation ever since it made the initial massive breakout. But the thought appeared in this head that there was too much clutter. So instead of sticking to the discipline of a consistent chart layout of potential movers to watch, that little ommission cost a wonderful entry level with huge upside potential. So sticking with a consistent discipline of scanning technique is an expensive lesson to learn.
Would add one more thought. The reflationists who truly believe that the Central Bankers can fix things may step up to the plate one more time and cause a retracement of commodity currencies. Thus providing another opportunity for low risk position building. As in Europe the Bond market rout that ensued forced the hand of the ECB and addressing the soverign spending issues was forced by the market. The Fed does not have the option of inflating away Fiscal imprudence. No one is immune to what is coming from the forces of deflation.
Asia remains in a quandry. There is not enough world demand for export reliant economies as consumer credit driven spending is non existent.
Although the US treasury did not name China a currency manipulator there must have been some back room deal for this to not have happened. The Obama administration needs domestic job growth so they may have told China no more or they would act.
China has a severe problem coming at it like a freight train.
This would suggest the crack in the AUD is just a matter of time. China can recirculate its trade surplus that has been used to manipulate the USD into the Euro and the AUD, but no soverign has inexhaustable reserves. Nor will Europe tolerate getting singled out for long as the reciever of trade imbalances.
The rising Euro will only lead to cointinued deflationary pressure in Euroland and the advent of soverign default will cast its shadow again, as lack of world competitiveness in southern Europe comes home to roost.
Deflationary forces are coming to bear and there is nothing the Central Bankers can do about it.
As to trading, if it weren't for mistakes, trading would be too easy. I missed the move in the EURO/AUD. Why? A simple scanning error in the charts spread across the screen. In the past that chart has been kept for observation ever since it made the initial massive breakout. But the thought appeared in this head that there was too much clutter. So instead of sticking to the discipline of a consistent chart layout of potential movers to watch, that little ommission cost a wonderful entry level with huge upside potential. So sticking with a consistent discipline of scanning technique is an expensive lesson to learn.
Would add one more thought. The reflationists who truly believe that the Central Bankers can fix things may step up to the plate one more time and cause a retracement of commodity currencies. Thus providing another opportunity for low risk position building. As in Europe the Bond market rout that ensued forced the hand of the ECB and addressing the soverign spending issues was forced by the market. The Fed does not have the option of inflating away Fiscal imprudence. No one is immune to what is coming from the forces of deflation.
If you watched "Seinfeld" there was an episode where George did everything opposite to what he would normally have done- his results were successful. 
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