USDCAD trend reversal?

Bad PMI for Canada.
Worse than the forecast and worse than the previous month as well, but still Canadian Dollar rises..

Any ideas?

me too having the same question?usd/cad should go to north right?how come the direction is reversed?

NFP was disappointing, this week's US data as well as Canada's - used to be that USD would go up (risk off)- uncertain times.

If you recall FOTO's post (Sun or Mon) re: comm$ increasing you may wish to view this as an aberration.

Right now Loonie is channelling. I'm buying dips.

Just perused my Dtf CAD: Fibs ( 6/21 lo to 7/1 hi) $ @ 38% fib with 50% fib & 50 ema confluence @ 0416.

D chart: STO heading down. 1.0340 is 61% fib.

4H: 200 ema is 1.0432 ( 50% fib on D) STO is going up.
1.0433 was prev Res on 4H June23/4.

I'll stay with H & 15m for shorts. The D tf is more powerful.

FOTO: interesting read today ( S. Derrick bnymellon).

Baltic Dry Index down 44% (Oz news spoke of increased shipping of coal & iron ore to PRC). Oil is down & if gold reverses then similar scenario to collapse of Sept/ Oct '08.

Scarecru,
Am puzzled by all the conflicting data as well as everyone else. The U.S. and Europe remain mired in recession, but commodity countries are strong.
Can only postulate that the stimulus money from around the globe is pouring into the commodity based economys.

It certainly is not doing anything for the large western nations.

Wow..93,000 jobs added...Canada is great !

Hey Kingfisher,
Normally employment reports are treated as lagging indicators and can be at sentiment extremes. So this should represent some sort of turning point. Most occilators are at Cad overbought levels.

But we all know that Bernanke, to use the slang phrase is a slap, when it comes to monetary policy. The market has been treating Fed policy with the contempt it deserves.

So without some sort of idea about what is ahead, and paying attention to the past few days, I have reduced position size and will now wait.

Market psychology shows no sign of agreeing with deflation being meaningful as a trading theme. So for now the scenario remains unfruitful.
Did have some nice gains on open positions, which for a short while appeared to be on target, but since the Fourth of July weekend the USD bears have been speaking rather plainly.

I really do not like to argue with the market when it goes strongly one way. Making money is what this business is about. Still believe there is great validity in the basic scenario. Just is not manifesting in the markets.

good morning,
Took a short on EURO/USD this morning at the 1.2580 level, stop at 1.2840

Do not know how linear the EURO will trade but it is bouncing off the long term daily downtrend line going back to early Dec. 2009

Weekly USD index is also holding just above the 20 period sma, which remains in a solid uptrend mode.

Euro area data continues weak with the sentiment index dropping.

Will see how day plays out.

So far pretty agressive selling of the USD. May pull the plug early on the trade if this continues.

Pulled the plug. Too one sided dumping of USD with a breeching of 20 sma on the weekly dollar index.

FOTO: my D shows Euro with RSI 64 & STO is going up, I am long ( seems people are buying the BS of " no double dip recession".

On my D chart, the loonie $ is @ prev supp June 10-14. STO is o/s & RSI is 41.8. It may bounce up, but lots of US data tomorrow.

If $ breaks < 0240, good short opp.

Still do not understand why the comm$ are staying strong.

Hi Scarecru,

It would seem that as the financial markets bull up commodities in the face of recessionary pressure, (monetary and fiscal stimulus causing results) the higher prices being paid by the world economy flows thru into the countries that have goods to sell.

This is the reverse effect of what should happen during recession that is that commodities and hard assets should fall in price. Allowing the real economy to catch its breathe and rebuild.

What has been accomplished is the shoring up of the banking system at the expense of everyone else.

The Euro being bid up appears to be coming from the perception that the credit market freeze is being aleviated and that credit growth is imminent which will restart the debt driven creation of world gdp.

Todays retail sales #s will be a real market mover if better then expected or weaker. Thus the current sideways consolidation. Did go to a local home improvement store to look. It was empty, but weekend resort areas are seeing an uptick from last year as are restaurants.

The desire to spend does not seem to be gone, so it comes down to the ability to spend wherein is the question going forward. It still seems unreasonable that consumers will keep using credit cards to live on after what has happened, but we do live in an age where personal responsibility is meaningless. The Socialists have breed a population that is dependent upon the State and debt. Not any different then drug and alcohol dependency.

Would add one more thought. Like all Ponzi schemes throughout history, there always is a day of reckoning. When the real crash comes it will be a trainwreck of catastrophic proportion.

Well the much touted debt reflation has not occured sans retail figures.
Now we will see who is bullshiting who.

addendum: Truly you cannot fix stupid, but it can be voted out of office.

Overnite Asia equities were off. The realization that the US consumer is not in the financial condition to spend is impacting market sentiment. Asia is taking notice. US markets to date still are chasing the inflation as only outcome possibilty.

Looks as if there is a topping action in AUD/USD and possibly a bottoming in USD/CAD. The price of both pairs are being held at the 20 sma on the weekly charts. For the weekly AUD/USD the 20 has held as resistance on several prior occasions and acted as support for the USD/CAD as well. As the week winds down if this situation holds would be excellent entry levels upon US equity weakness.

EURO/USD is also approaching the downtrending weekly 20 sma. With overbought RSI readings on all time frames daily and under. Strongly overbought on 8,6,4,3,2,1 hr timeframes

USD-CAD forms "Bear trap". Upside risk to 1.0680

I think we're about to have a major change in the trend in the USDCAD for the up side. On my list to enter long (still needs confirmation).

Greetings

MarketInvestor

US/CAD D tf 2oo ema flat 50<200 $<50

STO o/s RSI@48

suggests downtrend continuation or downtrend reversal pattern.
Watch $ for break > or < than this consolidation.

I am biased to break downside.

Just gonna wait for $ to decide then jump on the train.

The loonie is acting too loonie for me these days. Oil is up, CDN economy is up, USDx is down but still USD/CDN is up. Just no way to predict what it's gonna do next. I don't do indicators but at this point throwing darts at a board would predict what it does next as well as anything else.