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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #16,961
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:28am Jul 15, 2010 9:28am
I understand that most of the Yen gains are being driven by perceived weakness in the US, but it is surreal how the Yen has been gaining in spite of pretty much all the cards in the deck being stacked against it:
1. Increased risk appetite - Check
2. Terrible Japanese economy - Check
3. Japanese political uncertainty - Check
4. Japanese national security risks - Check (N. Korea)

I think once this technical weakness in the dollar index is resolved, this pair is going to reverse strong, hard and fast and will be back in the mid-90s in the blink of an eye. The problem is timing.
  • #16,962
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:00am Jul 15, 2010 11:00am
rising unemployment, low birthrate, aging population ....

Japanese firms were hiring foreigners with contracts for two months of work, the Japanese are afraid of a new crisis!

big banks, big companies are behind the speculative movement against the dollar and the yen's favor. One day there will be a famous reversal!
  • #16,963
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:07am Jul 15, 2010 11:07am
Quoting Amie_Senior
It's a BAT !

Good Luck !


still valid??We trust this analysis?
  • #16,964
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:41am Jul 15, 2010 11:41am
Hi Guys,

I would like to start trading USD/JPY, could you help me getting pivots for this pair?

Thank you,

Walt
  • #16,965
  • Jul 15, 2010 1:22pm Jul 15, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting Amie_Senior
It's a BAT !

Good Luck !





Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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R & S , That Is All !...
  • #16,966
  • Jul 15, 2010 6:58pm Jul 15, 2010 6:58pm
Quoting Amie_Senior
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,967
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:34pm Jul 15, 2010 9:34pm
hopefully us-yen will run up 200 pts today...
Steady as the beating drum,,,
  • #16,968
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:38pm Jul 15, 2010 9:38pm
Quoting Deanchain
hopefully us-yen will run up 200 pts today...
I doubt it.....not likely that this pair will move that much in one day. Still, this is the 4th time we've been down here recently, and the move down has been very powerful. I expect the Japanese govt is fretting about this, because if we don't return to the 38.2 pdq, this might crash down to the magic 85 level....then the shit will hit the fan!!
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,969
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:48pm Jul 15, 2010 9:48pm
Quoting realjumper
I doubt it.....not likely that this pair will move that much in one day. Still, this is the 4th time we've been down here recently, and the move down has been very powerful. I expect the Japanese govt is fretting about this, because if we don't return to the 38.2 pdq, this might crash down to the magic 85 level....then the shit will hit the fan!!
Yep, it's not looking good for upside. 83% of FXCM's retail traders are long. Shorts bailed out before the magical 87.00 level. Hopefully those retail traders that are long can handle a nice little spike down - that's the only thing that I can see happening at this point

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 4.91 as nearly 83% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.40 as 77% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.0% higher than yesterday and 13.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 19.8% lower than yesterday and 27.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.9% stronger than yesterday and 4.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #16,970
  • Jul 15, 2010 9:52pm Jul 15, 2010 9:52pm
Quoting Patience
Yep, it's not looking good for upside. 83% of FXCM's retail traders are long. Shorts bailed out before the magical 87.00 level. Hopefully those retail traders that are long can handle a nice little spike down - that's the only thing that I can see happening at this point

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 4.91 as nearly 83% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.40 as 77% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.0% higher than yesterday and 13.0% stronger since last week. Short...
My 'long term long' got stopped out at +50! So much for my 1,000 pip bonus...lol. At this level, and bearing in mind the candles in the chart just posted, I just can't enter long for now. I may be wrong but I see 85 as a real possibility which might force the hand of the Japanese govt to act.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,971
  • Jul 15, 2010 10:26pm Jul 15, 2010 10:26pm
Quoting realjumper
My 'long term long' got stopped out at +50! So much for my 1,000 pip bonus...lol. At this level, and bearing in mind the candles in the chart just posted, I just can't enter long for now. I may be wrong but I see 85 as a real possibility which might force the hand of the Japanese govt to act.
What's that saying? You'll never go broke taking profits (or something). It could bounce but I'm not betting on it. Sentiment and chart wise this ain't looking good for upside. In saying that, I'm not shorting it either - I don't want to get caught in the BoJ bungy and I just don't like this pair. Since it's Friday I think I'll clock off early and save my ammunition for lower levels on A/J.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #16,972
  • Jul 15, 2010 10:30pm Jul 15, 2010 10:30pm
Quoting Patience
What's that saying? You'll never go broke taking profits (or something). It could bounce but I'm not betting on it. Sentiment and chart wise this ain't looking good for upside. In saying that, I'm not shorting it either - I don't want to get caught in the BoJ bungy and I just don't like this pair. Since it's Friday I think I'll clock off early and save my ammunition for lower levels on A/J.
Same.....I'm staying away from this pair for the moment....it would be too easy to get caught out by the boj.

Have a good weekend
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,973
  • Jul 15, 2010 10:33pm Jul 15, 2010 10:33pm
Looks like were into making some new lows here...
  • #16,974
  • Jul 15, 2010 10:42pm Jul 15, 2010 10:42pm
i think the us dollar will weaken against yen in the near term because of this

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2010/...roductiveness/

...either way im trying to short below 87241 for the next couple hours, 86695 target
  • #16,975
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:01pm Jul 15, 2010 11:01pm
Quoting realjumper
I doubt it.....not likely that this pair will move that much in one day. Still, this is the 4th time we've been down here recently, and the move down has been very powerful. I expect the Japanese govt is fretting about this, because if we don't return to the 38.2 pdq, this might crash down to the magic 85 level....then the shit will hit the fan!!
You trade purely in candlesticks, don't you?
I saw your chart in 8-hr tf.
What is the charting software you use?
I use MT4 but it does not have it.
It is what I look for.
Any recommendation.
Thanks.
tpat.
  • #16,976
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:06pm Jul 15, 2010 11:06pm
Quoting tradpat
You trade purely in candlesticks, don't you?
I saw your chart in 8-hr tf.
What is the charting software you use?
I use MT4 but it does not have it.
It is what I look for.
Any recommendation.
Thanks.
tpat.
Hi,

No I trade pivots, s & r, fibs and trendlines. I do watch the candles though because they can give a hint as to what might happen.

The charting software I post here is mainly just because the charts are easy to see for posting purposes. I use MT4 as well but the charts are a pain to post sometimes.

The ones you see me post here come from Netdania, and they are free.....go here to see
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,977
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:13pm Jul 15, 2010 11:13pm
Here we go, testing the 87 level again. I said I would go Long if it got down to this area again but I think I will hold off for now. Not very optimistic about the US economic data coming out in the morning which will probably push this thing down even more.
  • #16,978
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:27pm Jul 15, 2010 11:27pm
Still watching. It didn't hit my long point yet and is showing signs of the decline I talked about a couple weeks back.

Obama is spending his time getting excited about 8 jobs being created. Our news might suck for a bit.
Only expectation matters . . .
  • #16,979
  • Jul 15, 2010 11:42pm Jul 15, 2010 11:42pm
BOJ Shirakawa: watching fx, stock prices carefully


http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTKU10614120100715
  • #16,980
  • Jul 16, 2010 12:09am Jul 16, 2010 12:09am
Took a round number trade since it usually works very good in this pair, but have already exited. The old trend seems to be back where you see no retrace, but instead sideways action between downmoves. BOJ is not going to intervene simply because it's no use.The trend is based on fundamentals, and any attempt to sell the yen will be seen as buying opportunity for others. It stays with the talk.
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