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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #16,921
  • Jul 13, 2010 7:25am Jul 13, 2010 7:25am
Depending on what this crazy pa is going to do........
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,922
  • Jul 13, 2010 7:28am Jul 13, 2010 7:28am
Charts are showing different signals. Monthly chart could go till the lower line of lower bollinger band around 86/85. Weekly shows half of the way downwards compared with the weekly candle before at 2010.07.04 with H: 88.69 & L: 87.01,..., so current week could go up or down. Daily candle has reached mS1 88.35 and if EMA9 will be definitely broken downwards around 88.45 may be we take a look at H1 if prices won't come up over EMA120 near 88.37 just now.
If prices will further moves in the range 88.00 - 89.20 may be it's better to trade at M15/M30 the ups and downs, since now breakout will coming up.
  • #16,923
  • Jul 13, 2010 7:35am Jul 13, 2010 7:35am
Quoting trigg
Charts are showing different signals. Monthly chart could go till the lower line of lower bollinger band around 86/85. Weekly shows half of the way downwards compared with the weekly candle before at 2010.07.04 with H: 88.69 & L: 87.01,..., so current week could go up or down. Daily candle has reached mS1 88.35 and if EMA9 will be definitely broken downwards around 88.45 may be we take a look at H1 if prices won't come up over EMA120 near 88.37 just now.
If prices will further moves in the range 88.00 - 89.20 may be it's better to trade at M15/M30...
You're right, the pa is very confused at the moment, moreso depending on which timeframe your're watching. I'm trading off the M15 for the time being, but keeping an eye on the larger time frames too
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,924
  • Jul 13, 2010 7:49am Jul 13, 2010 7:49am
DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE JAPANESE CURRENCY HAS AS MUCH POWER! JAPANESE RESISTANCE!
The Dollar is weak? Never saw that before!
VALUE THAT IS NOT FAIR!
BUT ... YOU DEFINE THE VALUE IS THE MARKET!
NOW THE PROOF IS IN JAPANESE POLITICS! LET'S SEE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE YEN IN THE COMING MONTHS!

WHEN WE SEE OUR DOLLAR A 100 ~ 110 AGAIN?
  • #16,925
  • Jul 13, 2010 7:53am Jul 13, 2010 7:53am
Quoting Mary Silvert
DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE JAPANESE CURRENCY HAS AS MUCH POWER! JAPANESE RESISTANCE!
The Dollar is weak? Never saw that before!
VALUE THAT IS NOT FAIR!
BUT ... YOU DEFINE THE VALUE IS THE MARKET!
NOW THE PROOF IS IN JAPANESE POLITICS! LET'S SEE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE YEN IN THE COMING MONTHS!

WHEN WE SEE OUR DOLLAR A 100 ~ 110 AGAIN?
I'm sure we will see 100 Mary, but I don't know when.

You and I both know that Japan isn't in great shape, but then again, neither is Europe or the US. Currently all eyes are on Europe, but that won't last forever!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,926
  • Jul 13, 2010 8:21am Jul 13, 2010 8:21am
Quoting realjumper
I'm sure we will see 100 Mary, but I don't know when.

You and I both know that Japan isn't in great shape, but then again, neither is Europe or the US. Currently all eyes are on Europe, but that won't last forever!

hello, but what are you waiting for the European banking stress test next week?http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/waiting.gif http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif
  • #16,927
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:27am Jul 13, 2010 9:27am
Can someone write to BOJ to tell them to wake their idea...

With so strong Yen, what money can the exporters make?

With deflation still around, how can the Yen be so strong?


With so much debt in the country, are investors crazy to buy Yen as a safe haven currency???

doesnt make sense...

With big earthquake coming possibility striking any time soon, a country on the verge of natural calamity, how can investors buy Yen?

With so much political uncertainty, buying yen and keep? must be crazy....
  • #16,928
  • Jul 13, 2010 9:50am Jul 13, 2010 9:50am
USD-JPY forms reversal pattern -"H&S"
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  • #16,929
  • Jul 13, 2010 10:06am Jul 13, 2010 10:06am
Hi,

I expect the pair to go up to 91.00 by 26th July 2010, then decline from there.

I am currently long 2,000,000 with average rate of 88.45, stop-loss orders are set at 86.50 for both trades.

Regards,
Archimedes

http://i834.photobucket.com/albums/z...e2010-7-13.jpg
http://s834.photobucket.com/albums/z...e2010-7-13.jpg
  • #16,930
  • Jul 13, 2010 11:04am Jul 13, 2010 11:04am
The Eagle has landed at 88.00 ... where hence ..?
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  • #16,931
  • Jul 13, 2010 11:05am Jul 13, 2010 11:05am
Quoting trigg
cool avatar : swiss flag !
  • #16,932
  • Jul 13, 2010 11:10am Jul 13, 2010 11:10am
Quoting Archimedes
Hi,

I expect the pair to go up to 91.00 by 26th July 2010, then decline from there.



http://s834.photobucket.com/albums/z...e2010-7-13.jpg
what is ur basis ? why that price at that day and subsequent fall ? how did u derive at the price and date ?
  • #16,933
  • Jul 13, 2010 11:39am Jul 13, 2010 11:39am
Hello guys,

I am shorting this pair with target 87.50 this week.

SL 88.70

Happy trading
Trade only what i see
  • #16,934
  • Jul 13, 2010 12:21pm Jul 13, 2010 12:21pm
Inserted Video



excuse me for this 'poetic licence' ... abit bored ..

  • #16,935
  • Jul 13, 2010 4:55pm Jul 13, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting Archimedes
Hi,

I expect the pair to go up to 91.00 by 26th July 2010, then decline from there.

I am currently long 2,000,000 with average rate of 88.45, stop-loss orders are set at 86.50 for both trades.

Regards,
Archimedes

I also expect 91...plus a lot more, but I'm not bold enough to put a date on it.....what method did you employ to arrive at 26 July?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,936
  • Jul 13, 2010 7:46pm Jul 13, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting realjumper
I also expect 91...plus a lot more, but I'm not bold enough to put a date on it.....what method did you employ to arrive at 26 July?
Everything in nature works in perfect proportions, you have to know that. I base my theory on mathematics, the as above so below principle.

From 20th Mar 2009 spring equinox to 20th Mar 2010 spring equinox, there are 365 calendar days. Call this square 1.

From 20th Sep 2008 autumn equinox to 20th Sep 2010 autumn equinox, there are 730 calendar days, which is 2x the length of square 1, call this square 2.

A top was formed on 20th Feb 2010. From 20th Mar 2009 to 20th Feb 2010, there are 337 calendar days, divide this number by 365, equals 0.9233, or in other words, the top was formed after 92.33% of square 1 was passed.

Use the ratio of 0.9233, multiply by square 2, 730 days, equals 674 days. Count from the start of square 2, 20th Sep 2008 for 674 days, you arrive at 26th July 2010, which will also be a top similar to the top on 20th Feb 2010.

The price of 91.00 is the mid-point between 100 and 81, which work out to be 10x10 and 9x9, natural square numbers, so price will meet strong resistance at the mid-point. Actually I expect 91.00 to be the ceiling the price will hit, it will probly end up at between 90.00 to 91.00.

Anyways this is my theory, and let’s wait and watch how the market plays out, then maybe we can discuss further after 26th July.
  • #16,937
  • Jul 13, 2010 11:25pm Jul 13, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting Archimedes
Everything in nature works in perfect proportions, you have to know that. I base my theory on mathematics, the as above so below principle.

From 20th Mar 2009 spring equinox to 20th Mar 2010 spring equinox, there are 365 calendar days. Call this square 1.

From 20th Sep 2008 autumn equinox to 20th Sep 2010 autumn equinox, there are 730 calendar days, which is 2x the length of square 1, call this square 2.

A top was formed on 20th Feb 2010. From 20th Mar 2009 to 20th Feb 2010, there are 337 calendar days, divide this number by 365, equals 0.9233,...
That's amazing! Thank you for your very clear and detailed explanation. I will watch with interest
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,938
  • Jul 13, 2010 11:50pm Jul 13, 2010 11:50pm
Quoting Archimedes


Anyways this is my theory, and let’s wait and watch how the market plays out, then maybe we can discuss further after 26th July.
ok .. let's wait till 27th July.

till then ,for curiosity, how about showing us charts of ur theory for the previous years .. thanks
  • #16,939
  • Jul 14, 2010 12:19am Jul 14, 2010 12:19am
Quoting TheArcher
ok .. let's wait till 27th July.

till then ,for curiosity, how about showing us charts of ur theory for the previous years .. thanks
3rd July 2010, bottom, 0.8918 in square 2. Measure this ratio in square 1, arrive at 8th Feb 2010, bottom.

1st May 2010, top, 0.8055 in square 2. Measure this ratio in square 1, arrive at 8th Jan 2010, top.

3rd Mar 2010, bottom, 0.7247 in square 2. Measure this ratio in square 1, arrive at 9th Dec 2009, bottom.

But ofcos, this is just 2 squares in the history of this currency pair, this are other squares with various size and position that you could use.

This is the true principle of fractals, I have read pretty much all the books on the market about fractals, they are all trash, sorry to use this word but it is true, unfortunately.

You can zoom out the squares to predict weekly, monthly or yearly movements, or zoom in the squares to predict daily, hourly or minute movements.

Squares within squares, wheels within wheels. Hope this is helpful to your trading.

Regards,
Archimedes
  • #16,940
  • Edited 2:08am Jul 14, 2010 1:34am | Edited 2:08am
Quoting Archimedes

3rd July 2010, bottom, 0.8918 in square 2. Measure this ratio in square 1, arrive at 8th Feb 2010, bottom.
what are these numbers ... trying to make out from the charts (red box between red vertical line , similarly for the other dates u mentioned) .... ???

Quoting Archimedes

This is the true principle of fractals
any articles we could read about this subject .. ie true principle of fractals ?

Quoting Archimedes

Squares within squares, wheels within wheels. Hope this is helpful to your trading.
until we understand/know how to incorporate this concept , alas, we need to confess that we don't know any better /none the wiser ... in fact, it confuses than it is helpful ...

perhaps ur more detailed explanation ... maybe taking us step-by-step will put us on the right track .

thanks
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