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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #16,901
  • Jul 11, 2010 2:53am Jul 11, 2010 2:53am
Quoting VavraSF
In the Long Term I see it going down.

Short Term....I wish I knew.
Because?.....and what is "Long Term"
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  • #16,902
  • Jul 11, 2010 6:15am Jul 11, 2010 6:15am
Quoting realjumper
Because?.....and what is "Long Term"
Bear in mind, dollar/yen is in a long-term downtrend. The fact of the matter is that Japan has less inflation than the United States, this argues for a higher yen. I'm expecting to see dollar/yen get to sub-80 levels within the next year. But buying off 87-88 region is worth it. BOJ will likely be on the bid around 80 and we'll see some sort of verbal intervention or QE at 85.
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  • #16,903
  • Jul 11, 2010 3:16pm Jul 11, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
Bear in mind, dollar/yen is in a long-term downtrend. The fact of the matter is that Japan has less inflation than the United States, this argues for a higher yen. I'm expecting to see dollar/yen get to sub-80 levels within the next year. But buying off 87-88 region is worth it. BOJ will likely be on the bid around 80 and we'll see some sort of verbal intervention or QE at 85.
Yes, usd/jpy is in a long term downtrend, but nothing goes down (or up) forever! Also, Japan has monumental debt which makes even Greece look good, and unemployment isn't much better. Further, take a look at a monthly chart.....sub 80 levels, whilest certainly possible, would be history making.

No matter which way it goes I'll continue trading it, but, as I said, I'm cautiously optimistic that the temporary bottom we currently have, may turn into something more long term.

We shall see
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,904
  • Jul 11, 2010 5:31pm Jul 11, 2010 5:31pm
I feel that at some point in time JPY will implode. The situation in Japan will reach a critical point whereby the only way out of their deflationary cycle is the vast QE, inflation and total devaluation of Yen. The UK and US been having it, EU has it and Japan's turn will come. It's an impasse situation for the Japanese, they can't raise interest rates (due to the huge pile of debt), they're stuck in deflation for the last 12 years. What's the alternative to get out from such a burden of debt - devalue your own currency.

Speaking of short-term, democratic party didn't secure majority y-day = vague equivalent of British hung parliament. Whoever comes will oppose the sales tax increase and will stick to status quo letting the budget deficit baloon out of proportion. I don't see how this can be yen-positive.
  • #16,905
  • Jul 11, 2010 9:53pm Jul 11, 2010 9:53pm
Quoting Groovy
I feel that at some point in time JPY will implode. The situation in Japan will reach a critical point whereby the only way out of their deflationary cycle is the vast QE, inflation and total devaluation of Yen. The UK and US been having it, EU has it and Japan's turn will come. It's an impasse situation for the Japanese, they can't raise interest rates (due to the huge pile of debt), they're stuck in deflation for the last 12 years. What's the alternative to get out from such a burden of debt - devalue your own currency.

Speaking of short-term,...
yes.....

you're right!
  • #16,906
  • Jul 12, 2010 12:31am Jul 12, 2010 12:31am
shot at 88.96 for target at 88.76
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  • #16,907
  • Jul 12, 2010 12:46am Jul 12, 2010 12:46am
also short at 89.04
No TP at the moment, just gonna see how she plays out at London open.
SL is at BE+1 already and TS is 25.
  • #16,908
  • Jul 12, 2010 1:38am Jul 12, 2010 1:38am
Still holding my long from 87.40.....looking to add to it after London open
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,909
  • Jul 12, 2010 5:02am Jul 12, 2010 5:02am
Quoting TheArcher
shot at 88.96 for target at 88.76
Quoting kujo17
also short at 89.04
No TP at the moment, just gonna see how she plays out at London open.
SL is at BE+1 already and TS is 25.
Well done ....your shorts have played out nicely.

I'll look to see about adding another long at the DP, depending on the PA when (if) it gets there.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,910
  • Jul 12, 2010 5:36am Jul 12, 2010 5:36am
Long off the pivot with a tight sl....because I expect a pivot bounce and because of a hidden divergence materialising
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,911
  • Jul 12, 2010 11:11am Jul 12, 2010 11:11am
Quoting realjumper
Well done ....your shorts have played out nicely.
Thank you realjumper .

+20pips
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  • #16,912
  • Jul 12, 2010 12:42pm Jul 12, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting realjumper
hidden divergence
i have been always confused with hidden divergence concept .... how do u define it ? will be helpful if you could provide any remembering technique .

thanks
  • #16,913
  • Jul 12, 2010 8:16pm Jul 12, 2010 8:16pm
Quoting TheArcher
i have been always confused with hidden divergence concept .... how do u define it ? will be helpful if you could provide any remembering technique .

thanks
In my case, the hidden divergence didn't yield much. I closed my long from the pivot at +10, and then re-entered at S1. This trade is at BE+5.

I must admit to not being much of a fan of divergence trading. Some have a lot of success with it, but I only use it when it agrees with other 'signs'. To tell you the truth, I can never remember which kind of divergence means what......lol.....so I always have a peek at babypips because they have very simple diagrams that even I can follow!! Check this out here
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,914
  • Edited 11:11pm Jul 12, 2010 10:35pm | Edited 11:11pm
Quoting realjumper
To tell you the truth, I can never remember which kind of divergence means what......lol.....so I always have a peek at babypips because they have very simple diagrams that even I can follow!! Check this out here
thanks for being honest ..

yes, that's what i do too ... the conventional divergence part is easy and i think it is a very powerful indicator ... its the hidden one that still can't stick in mind ... ah ..well ...maybe one of these days i might have a 'eureka' moment about it too !
  • #16,915
  • Jul 13, 2010 12:54am Jul 13, 2010 12:54am
I don't put too much faith in 'Head and Shoulders' formations, maily because I haven't seen them work out too often. However, if this one makes a liar out of me, it might be worth 100 pip drop.......
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,916
  • Jul 13, 2010 4:24am Jul 13, 2010 4:24am
Quoting realjumper
I don't put too much faith in 'Head and Shoulders' formations, maily because I haven't seen them work out too often. However, if this one makes a liar out of me, it might be worth 100 pip drop.......
it may .. it may not ..

it may be just a retracement ..resting at 23.6%.. as per daily chart ...

it is at a critical juncture now ...
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  • #16,917
  • Edited 4:39am Jul 13, 2010 4:28am | Edited 4:39am
on the daily ...if the downward channel is drawn tighter ... maybe the downward pressure is higher ...then maybe u may have a case ...
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  • #16,918
  • Jul 13, 2010 4:39am Jul 13, 2010 4:39am
Quoting TheArcher
on the daily ...if the downward channel is drawn tighter ... maybe the downward pressure is higher ...then maybe u may have a case ...
Maybe....like I say, I don't put too much faith in those formations.....and we are about 100 pips away from the low of the year. Whether it gets there, and whether it goes further south is anyones guess at the moment.

Apart from my long of 87.40, I'm all out for now
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #16,919
  • Jul 13, 2010 4:43am Jul 13, 2010 4:43am
88.00

and

87.00

are very strong support
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  • #16,920
  • Jul 13, 2010 5:00am Jul 13, 2010 5:00am
Quoting TheArcher
88.00

and

87.00

are very strong support
Indeed..I posted a chart a week or two back about the 86.80-87.00 support......pa has bouced from there several times in the past. Really I would like to see this either break 87 and head on down to 85 to trigger possible intervention, or else get going up to the 90's. This messing around down here is frustrating!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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