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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,961
  • Jul 8, 2010 4:31pm Jul 8, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting Victory83
hi SHAHAB
really miss your great setups dude
wish you all the best
EURUSD240
Thanx, your charts are great, nice set up.
  • #3,962
  • Jul 8, 2010 9:12pm Jul 8, 2010 9:12pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Thats not quite right. It is large traders versus commercials. When they are at extremes you bet against the large traders. For example, commercials will be extreme short after a rally because they are hedging against that price rise. The large traders are at extreme long contracts because they have been buying into the rally. The commercials unload their positions as their business deals settle and they no longer need the hedge. This usually causes price to drop, sometimes a little and sometimes alot. Extreme positioning preceeded the EUR/USD drop...
COT Report by Peter Bain himself on the Aust Example

You are right, when both the large traders and commercial traders are at extremities. It is time to follow the commercial traders original position. My apology.
Forex Price Action Hacked - Price Action Rockstar
  • #3,963
  • Jul 8, 2010 9:34pm Jul 8, 2010 9:34pm
I think it is correct to say that the Yen is losing its strength and going short.
However USDX is gaining strength.
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  • #3,964
  • Jul 9, 2010 12:12am Jul 9, 2010 12:12am
Quoting shahab8b
Thanx, your charts are great, nice set up.
you are welcome
it is my honour, if you think like this about my charts
  • #3,965
  • Jul 9, 2010 1:21am Jul 9, 2010 1:21am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Thats not quite right. It is large traders versus commercials. When they are at extremes you bet against the large traders. For example, commercials will be extreme short after a rally because they are hedging against that price rise. The large traders are at extreme long contracts because they have been buying into the rally. The commercials unload their positions as their business deals settle and they no longer need the hedge. This usually causes price to drop, sometimes a little and sometimes alot. Extreme positioning preceeded the EUR/USD drop...
Thanks for the correction, I heard him 5 years ago, had the principle right (extremes and having someone to offload to) but mixed up a detail (small v commercial).

Thanks for pointing that out, PB did very well from this set up by all acc's and I'll be watching for this in future.

Cheers.
  • #3,966
  • Jul 9, 2010 1:50am Jul 9, 2010 1:50am
Quoting david_akc
I think it is correct to say that the Yen is losing its strength and going short.
However USDX is gaining strength.
extreme levels arent in yet and retail are 80% long at the moment. I would expect price to go lower and shake off those retail traders and drag some more large traders in short before we see a turn. This is the problem with cot , it can take weeks, even months and hundreds, even thousands of pips against you before the market turns. And then it might not turn at all, just consolidate till the heat comes off and then continue in the same direction. You need a long term view and good risk management and patience to get the timing right.
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  • #3,967
  • Jul 11, 2010 9:25am Jul 11, 2010 9:25am
A/U

COT & Trade Ideas
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  • #3,968
  • Jul 11, 2010 9:31am Jul 11, 2010 9:31am
G/U

COT & Trade Ideas
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  • #3,969
  • Jul 11, 2010 9:41am Jul 11, 2010 9:41am
U/Cad

COT +Trade Ideas
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  • #3,970
  • Jul 11, 2010 9:55am Jul 11, 2010 9:55am
U/J

COT and Trade ideas
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  • #3,971
  • Jul 11, 2010 10:04am Jul 11, 2010 10:04am
E/U

COT & Trade Ideas
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  • #3,972
  • Jul 11, 2010 11:21am Jul 11, 2010 11:21am
U/Chf

COT & Trade ideas
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  • #3,973
  • Jul 11, 2010 11:43am Jul 11, 2010 11:43am
S&P 500
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  • #3,974
  • Jul 11, 2010 11:49am Jul 11, 2010 11:49am
Gold
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  • #3,975
  • Jul 12, 2010 3:36am Jul 12, 2010 3:36am
hi Shahab
good job my friend
  • #3,976
  • Jul 12, 2010 7:16pm Jul 12, 2010 7:16pm
A/U....
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  • #3,977
  • Jul 13, 2010 8:13am Jul 13, 2010 8:13am
A/U
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  • #3,978
  • Jul 13, 2010 4:17pm Jul 13, 2010 4:17pm
Shahab, the expanding triangle you mentioned in your a/u chart, is it a continuation pattern? Or is it a specific bullish pattern? You see, I'm not familiar with this pattern.

Thanks for your time!
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #3,979
  • Jul 13, 2010 4:24pm Jul 13, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting Dhb
Shahab, the expanding triangle you mentioned in your a/u chart, is it a continuation pattern? Or is it a specific bullish pattern? You see, I'm not familiar with this pattern.

Thanks for your time!
Hi,

Expanding triangle usually is a continuation pattern. But there is other version of it ( you cant differentiate them well) which is a reversal pattern like a broadening Top/Bottom or a megaphone pattern.

Here is EW definition:
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  • #3,980
  • Jul 13, 2010 5:04pm Jul 13, 2010 5:04pm
Thanks a lot for such a quick answer, Shahab. Very informative.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
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