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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,921
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:33am Jun 26, 2010 1:33am
EUR/USD?
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  • #3,922
  • Jun 26, 2010 5:53am Jun 26, 2010 5:53am
Quoting a24ali
Hi Shahab,

I was following your calls and discussion for the past two weeks and they were impressive. I am not sure the reason you stopping but i would like to know if you have your own blog or website to follow your analysis.

All i have to say is that Thank you for the great work

PS. I would like to get your insight on oil. I know you called sell at 79 for target price of 73 but since then it climbed back to 79. Sell again??

Thank you for your comments.

For Crude Oil, I closed my short from 79 at 76 after it got Support at 75.5.

Next selling might come at 81.80 and 83.30

For the website, take a look at my profile.
  • #3,923
  • Jun 26, 2010 5:56am Jun 26, 2010 5:56am
Quoting jackm1
I guess I am late to the party as usual. Please tell what happened to the 600 week deal and why are you quiting.

Obviously I did not get the memo.......................LOL
I guess you have not got our email. You can PM me if you want to know the details.
  • #3,924
  • Jun 26, 2010 5:58am Jun 26, 2010 5:58am
Quoting hutrader
Yeh shahab8b, pitty you quit. If you have anything to follow pls let us know. thnx in advance and many thanks for the support the past few months.

My view on GBP/USD
Hi there,

I'm not quitting, Only no Trade Calls onwards as you have already been informed.Discussion and COT will remain the same.
  • #3,925
  • Jun 26, 2010 5:59am Jun 26, 2010 5:59am
Quoting calderone
You are truly one of the most talented traders I have had the pleasure to study!

Thank you Mike, I've learned a lot from you too. You are an excellent trader.
  • #3,926
  • Jun 26, 2010 6:02am Jun 26, 2010 6:02am
Quoting tradoholic
YOu are truely an eccellent trader. Good luck in your new venture.

Hi there, Thank you for your kind comments. I wish I could apply your special approach to the markets. For now I only enjoy reading your posts. Keep up the good work.
  • #3,927
  • Jun 26, 2010 6:20am Jun 26, 2010 6:20am
A/U COT

To my surprise Large institutes have not been adding to their Long A/U contracts in a significant way. That's one of the reason that I expect this up move capped somewhere between 88-89.
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  • #3,928
  • Jun 26, 2010 1:09pm Jun 26, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting shahab8b
I guess you have not got our email. You can PM me if you want to know the details.
I did not get the email, dunno why either. Anyways, another trader sent me a mesg saying you all have a pay service now for trade calls.

I am very surprised how GB/U has completely recovered from 900 pip loss( 4200 - 5100 ) while U/J, A/U and E/U still struggling, interesting indeed.

Well, good luck in your endeavours. You say you will continue to post COT analysis and that is a good thing for most of us. Thanks again for all your efforts here.
  • #3,929
  • Jun 28, 2010 1:27am Jun 28, 2010 1:27am
Quoting shahab8b
A/U COT

To my surprise Large institutes have not been adding to their Long A/U contracts in a significant way. That's one of the reason that I expect this up move capped somewhere between 88-89.
The theory is those fund managers with those big accounts if they do change position to short they would push the price higher as to liquidate their intention at a profit. But with the above charts. Those changes from long to short are instantaneous.

I think I need to respect their COT report and made no conclusion on my own. Great work.
Forex Price Action Hacked - Price Action Rockstar
  • #3,930
  • Jun 30, 2010 1:20pm Jun 30, 2010 1:20pm
hi guys
where are you Shahab?
really miss your great comments.
seems suitable setup going to be formed.

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/0o...y7ix_thumb.gif
  • #3,931
  • Jul 1, 2010 4:34pm Jul 1, 2010 4:34pm
U/Chf
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  • #3,932
  • Jul 1, 2010 7:33pm Jul 1, 2010 7:33pm
Quoting shahab8b
U/Chf
Think we're going lower?
UCHF quite oversold and isn;t the COT index heavily oversold?
  • #3,933
  • Jul 1, 2010 11:11pm Jul 1, 2010 11:11pm
Remember this chart from last week?
perfect bounce.
Hope you guys took also the GU trade. not sure if I've mentioned it. But I am sure about the UJ chart.
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  • #3,934
  • Jul 3, 2010 3:23am Jul 3, 2010 3:23am
New one.
EUR/USD.
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  • #3,935
  • Jul 3, 2010 2:40pm Jul 3, 2010 2:40pm
I am not touching the Euro at the moment, too much short squeezing going on and many specs.
Any thoughts on these:
Sell the yen by buying USDJPY.
Buy the CAD by selling USDCAD
Sell the GBP by selling GBPUSD (GBP moved much further than expected to in the last 2 weeks).
Attached Images
  • #3,936
  • Jul 3, 2010 4:07pm Jul 3, 2010 4:07pm
Hi SanMiguel
I my opinion selling the Yen at this point is a gamble, at least in medium term. Bond spreads are still increasing fast, and equity indexes continues to impress on the downside.
net contrasts have just crossed the zero-point as specs stepped up the buying with almost 22000 contracts, which is a lot. After observing previous extremes there's also room for a whole lot more.

Over to the Swissie. Looked through the numbers and find it odd that shorts are not covering much faster. It's been heading straight upwards after SNB said they have "given up" on interventions. Ralph Shell mentions an interesting theory in his COT-analysis, but I find that also a bit unrealistic:
http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/C...f-Traders.aspx
I welcome any ideas or theories.
  • #3,937
  • Jul 3, 2010 5:15pm Jul 3, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting Rush
Hi SanMiguel
I my opinion selling the Yen at this point is a gamble, at least in medium term. Bond spreads are still increasing fast, and equity indexes continues to impress on the downside.
net contrasts have just crossed the zero-point as specs stepped up the buying with almost 22000 contracts, which is a lot. After observing previous extremes there's also room for a whole lot more.

Over to the Swissie. Looked through the numbers and find it odd that shorts are not covering much faster. It's been heading straight upwards after SNB said they have...
2 countries in trouble there though. Neither the Japanese nor the Swiss want string currencies yet it can't be helped at the moment. USDCHF did just hit it's 200 day MA though and there is talk of the Japanese PM wanting to push a weaker yen.
  • #3,938
  • Jul 3, 2010 7:02pm Jul 3, 2010 7:02pm
Im also bearish on the yen, longer term. Just need to see some more positive employment numbers from the US. It would also help if the ECRI leading indicators stopped tumbling. The next weeks are going to be eventful.
  • #3,939
  • Jul 4, 2010 4:02am Jul 4, 2010 4:02am
Quoting hutrader
New one.
EUR/USD.
1.27? The broken trendline projects price to target 1.31. The recently completed head and shoulders also projects price to 1.31, the exact 38.2% of the move down from 1.5140. With the E.C.B backing it all the way, its going to at least 1.31. You can take that to the bank.

Chart 1 is a week old and shows the trendline break, price projection and the head and shoulder scenario before it even formed.
Chart 2 is current
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,940
  • Jul 4, 2010 4:20am Jul 4, 2010 4:20am
One important thing not on these charts is this:

Looking at weekly we are at a very important resistance level shown in my chart.

If the inverse H&S proves to pan out and we close above the resistance line.
The EUR/USD will rocket. And it will be over for the USD.

THis may confirm the negative EUzone data being priced into charts already.
and unemployment in the US is not getting better very soon.

take a look,

If things change, and US releases some consistent positive data, and EUR is rejected we go towards 1.15 or lower.
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