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Sonic R. System

  • #13,221
  • Jul 8, 2010 11:24am Jul 8, 2010 11:24am
EU Watch:

It is almost half thru lunch hour in NY. I am wondering if come 1pm EST, when lunch is over, or shortly thereafter, we will see the balance of any pullback upwards. And then a true run down out of the Dragon.....?
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  • #13,222
  • Jul 8, 2010 11:55am Jul 8, 2010 11:55am
Quoting pipoca
My humble opinion : EJ & UJ were in a bull flag, easy to see & say after action. The lack of activity before entry should warn me. What I regret is to have totally ignored the reverse.

I think when a SonicR entry failed, think to reverse ur trade. A lot of time my first attempt is wrong , then SonicR show me another entry on the other side
Quoting parsfx
me too...stop out!
It can be filtered by not selling when price is higher than 89EMA (I wouldn't took that OR if I wanted to I would traded it with a very small volume). But mostly it was a losing trade not a bad trade. But as I said, you could've filtered that, as I did

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #13,223
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:01pm Jul 8, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting Pumlitch
I am in Long trade on UJ. Unfortunately i entered on the top before the pullback (can be seen on M5, M15), so I was litlle stressed last few minutes.
I swear I will always wait for pullback before I enter the market.
Attachment
Beside what TAH replies, here's my opinion on your trade :

1) It's better not to trade when price already made it's move. It's bizzare fo this pair to go more than 100pips per day (GMT time zone). As you can see in your chart, price already made it's move before sonicR gives you an entry.

2) your SL should be below the previous low, not below the previous high (for long setups of course).

After all know that we can't filter all losing trades. Losing is part of the game. But we should minimize it. I saw very good setups like the one you posted, and mostly they returned on me. That's why I don't even like re-entries ...

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #13,224
  • Edited 12:35pm Jul 8, 2010 12:23pm | Edited 12:35pm
EU Watch, Short Trade Initated:

NYC lunch hour is over now and the pullback upwards revitalized. My short entry triggered at the SonicR FR 38% level, and I have another near the FR 62% level, should PA be pumped that high.
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  • #13,225
  • Jul 8, 2010 12:43pm Jul 8, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting traderathome
EU Watch, Short Trade Initated:

NYC lunch hour is over now and the pullback upwards revitalized. My short entry triggered at the SonicR FR 38% level, and I have another near the FR 62% level, should PA be pumped that high.
Same here (I just like triple bearish divergence and the volume at the high!), just entered on 50% FR. will add if price breaks the last low. Very small volume though ...

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #13,226
  • Jul 8, 2010 1:15pm Jul 8, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting Basber
Beside what TAH replies, here's my opinion on your trade :

1) It's better not to trade when price already made it's move. It's bizzare fo this pair to go more than 100pips per day (GMT time zone). As you can see in your chart, price already made it's move before sonicR gives you an entry.

2) your SL should be below the previous low, not below the previous high (for long setups of course).

After all know that we can't filter all losing trades. Losing is part of the game. But we should minimize it. I saw very good setups like the one you posted,...
Thanks
I totally agree with you. The problem is:
1) I too much want to catch the move (so I am cought very often)
2) I usualy place my SL correctly, but as the price is acting I want to minimize a potential loss so I follow the price with my SL too closely and result is as ad 1).

At least 75% of my losses is due to my too big ethusiasm / fear.
Need practice.
Follow my trading on Twitter and FB: @pumlitch
  • #13,227
  • Edited 2:30pm Jul 8, 2010 1:33pm | Edited 2:30pm
UJ Short Trade Update:

PA current candle is making EP Zone. I'm already in at 88.30 from averaging to original short entry around US open, so when PA later drops thru the EP Zone the trade becomes profitable.

Like EU, this might be worthwhile monitoring for a short trade entry before next session approved trading hours. And as Basber would point out, MACD now shows bearish divergence (tops of PA are sloped opposite the tops of MACD).
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  • #13,228
  • Jul 8, 2010 1:51pm Jul 8, 2010 1:51pm
Quoting Pumlitch
Thanks
I totally agree with you. The problem is:
1) I too much want to catch the move (so I am cought very often)
2) I usualy place my SL correctly, but as the price is acting I want to minimize a potential loss so I follow the price with my SL too closely and result is as ad 1).

At least 75% of my losses is due to my too big ethusiasm / fear.
Need practice.
Knowledge to our weaknesses is the first step to overcome to it. Everyone has their own weak points. If they become aware of it, they passed most of the hard road they should pass ! So you're ahead of most of the traders I believe, because I think you accept your weaknesses ...

I have a note that I wrote mine in it. It's why I always have something to work on

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #13,229
  • Jul 8, 2010 2:12pm Jul 8, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting Basber
Knowledge to our weaknesses is the first step to overcome to it. Everyone has their own weak points. If they become aware of it, they passed most of the hard road they should pass ! So you're ahead of most of the traders I believe, because I think you accept your weaknesses ...

I have a note that I wrote mine in it. It's why I always have something to work on

Regards,
Basber
"So you're ahead of most of the traders I believe"...Repeate this every morning to me, please

Definitely it is always good if I know why I did not success in a trade.

Pumlitch
Follow my trading on Twitter and FB: @pumlitch
  • #13,230
  • Jul 8, 2010 2:21pm Jul 8, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting Pumlitch
"So you're ahead of most of the traders I believe"...Repeate this every morning to me, please

Definitely it is always good if I know why I did not success in a trade.

Pumlitch
LOL !

Many losers don't know why they lose, and if you know why you're losing, sooner or later, you'll make it go ... Pride is one thing that made a trader or his balance killed ...

But remember, there is not always a "reason" for your loss. It may be a losing trade ...

BTW, it's just my opinion though

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #13,231
  • Jul 8, 2010 3:28pm Jul 8, 2010 3:28pm
EU Watch, Short Trade Update:

Late US session profs also gamed PA.....why not, everyone else has! They took it above the whole number, where it is currently still hanging (pump and dump).

Basber can remain all smiles, as MACD divergence remains intact.

In fact, there are now four......count them, FOUR, humps on this camel's back! If I ever saw a giant teetering on the brink of collapse, this is it! Yep, I expect from now to close of week trading, this will be bearish all the way! Just look at the wicks on the tops of those humps!!!!

I added to short, so averaged short entry is 1.2688, and this should drop at least 100 pips from there if tomorrow has anything close to average range.

WARNING: I'm doing some speculating here!
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  • #13,232
  • Jul 8, 2010 4:39pm Jul 8, 2010 4:39pm
Hi, I've been through the sonic manual about half a dozen times and more of the posts than I can remember. I had a couple of questions I hope you can answer for me traderathome.

1. I noticed this thread and yourself have been around quite a while. Is the original method holding up well over all this time? What would you say is your win/loss ratio?

2. The entry setup and stops are very clear to me. I have the same problem I have with every method I try. Where do I take the best TP and or how do I let it run without endangering the trade? ..... or cutting profits too short...... this always ends up biting me in the ass.

3. You mentioned in couple of posts about EJ that you use a trailing stop of 40. Is that your stock trailing stop for all trades and all pairs or do you base the TS of off something?

4. I can only trade the U.S. session, are EU and EJ good for that session with this method? Or are there pairs better suited to this session?

5. I noticed that your template looks somewhat different than the V3 "sonicr with fibo point," that I uploaded. Is this template still valid and useful for this method?

6. How many pairs do you watch and during which sessions do you watch them.

7. Assuming, "15 M as per the manual," entries how many set ups do you get for one pair ?

P.S. Thanks for the easy to understand manual about your method. I've been looking at a lot of short term methods lately and most either have the information scattered so you have to read a gazillion pages to get the basic entry/exit, OR, they are far to complex to make me believe they would even hold up over time.
  • #13,233
  • Jul 8, 2010 10:53pm Jul 8, 2010 10:53pm
Hi, Pumlitch:

There are links posted earlier in this thread to several excellent ebooks dealing with trading psychology. Great resources--check them out if you haven't already.

No question about it: when we have a great system like SonicR available to us, the real hurdles are those in our minds.
  • #13,234
  • Edited 11:35pm Jul 8, 2010 10:58pm | Edited 11:35pm
Quoting KumoDragon
Hi, I've been through the sonic manual about half a dozen times and more of the posts than I can remember. I had a couple of questions I hope you can answer for me traderathome.

1. I noticed this thread and yourself have been around quite a while. Is the original method holding up well over all this time? What would you say is your win/loss ratio?

2. The entry setup and stops are very clear to me. I have the same problem I have with every method I try. Where do I take the best TP and or how do I let it run without endangering the trade? ........
Welcome to the thread, KumoDragon.

First of all, in the P.S. following your list of questions, you refer to SonicR as my method. It is not. SonicR is the product of Sonicdeejay. He has been busy of late and posting only infrequently. But he is the Father of this thread, and the Master of the use of the method.

Ok, that having been cleared up, I'll ty to answer your questions in a meaningful way:

1. The SonicR method is unchanged, from thread start to finish. And "Yes!", it was, is, and will always be a highly successful method, pure and simple. Personally, like everyone, I have some losing trades. But that is because it is an unavoidable part of forex trading, but mostly due to my venturing outside of the method, here and there, now and then, and adding indicators that lead me astray as often as they don't.

2. When it comes to setting TPs, the first and foremost requirement is that they align with historic PA S&R or consolidation areas. Tools often used for confirmation of placement are the FR and FE studys, and pivots. And placement within the average range increases the odds of being reached. However, as I am sure you already know, PA can at any time turn on a dime....destroying best laid plans. Hence, SLs and money management, etc.

3. I don't use trailing stops.

4. Sonic approved trading hours includes the start of the US session and ends when the London session ends. When both arenas of traders are active is when PA/technicals are most reliable. However, good setups do sometimes occur, or continue, after London closes. So you are not at an extreme disadvantage. This applies to all pairs. But EU is the most highly traded, and is the one Sonicdeejay focused on when starting the thread.

5. Any template with the 34 ema Dragon and the 89 ema Trend Line is adequate. The rest is fluf, but of all the fluf that has come and gone, even Sonicdeejay continues to use some form of volume indicator; either a version of the NVO indy, or of the Volumes Enhanced indy. This is to confirm the level of traders interest/preparations before the move....the SonicR setup breakout. Keep in mind that SonicR is about PA waves, and their relation to the Dragon and the Trend Line. So all one really needs is the candles price chart, Dragon and Trend Line.....and maybe volume, too. But ddaytrader, one of the most highly successful traders with this method, only uses price and Dragon; not even the Trend Line. Everything else in various templates is optional, and per user's choice. Of all the other choices of indicators, it seems the CCI is the one next most widely used.

6. I concentrate on EU. I watch leading into the approved trading hours. I will add here that by observation I can confirm that most SonicR trades do occur after the London Open and to several hours past the mid US session. There is no need to trade at any other time, and in fact it is riskier to do so.

7. You did not specify over what time span when asking ..."how many setups....", but no matter. It is rare to get more than one or two SonicR setups during SonicR approved hours. If you are looking for best setups, then one (but sometimes none) on any given day. And it seems mid-week provides the best trading overall. Sonicdeejay often skips the first session of the week altogether.

I hope this helps.
  • #13,235
  • Edited Jul 9, 2010 1:39am Jul 8, 2010 11:06pm | Edited Jul 9, 2010 1:39am
EU Watch:

Asian session traders are favoring the highs, so it seems they believe this is going lower. Most likely, based on PA, price will stay within a 20 pip range until euro session traders might break it out downwards. Just an opinion, but if there is any break up, it is more than likely to be a Head Fake.

I am in a short trade on this since yesterday. The Daily range has been tightening, so TP1 is tentative but certainly within the current average range. The thing is, if the next move is down, and if it is the trend changing move, it could also be a range expanding move driving price strongly past the current range low mark! On a Friday?

Let the market decide.

Edit: Chart 2 (2.5 hours later) - Looks like it could be the Frankfurt Head Fake!
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  • #13,236
  • Jul 9, 2010 1:12am Jul 9, 2010 1:12am
Quoting traderathome
Welcome to the thread, KumoDragon.[...]
Great summary! I'm new here too, so that really helped. Thank you!
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. - Niels Bohr
  • #13,237
  • Jul 9, 2010 1:26am Jul 9, 2010 1:26am
Quoting cardinale
Hi, Pumlitch:

There are links posted earlier in this thread to several excellent ebooks dealing with trading psychology. Great resources--check them out if you haven't already.

No question about it: when we have a great system like SonicR available to us, the real hurdles are those in our minds.
Yes, I know the books. Thanks anyway for your suggestion.
But, it is not so big problem for me to get over the psychological barrier. I am in Demo Trading so I am rather doing experiments than real trading right know.
Follow my trading on Twitter and FB: @pumlitch
  • #13,238
  • Jul 9, 2010 1:46am Jul 9, 2010 1:46am
i avoid eu short for the moment...at least for the moment, for me look like is long!!!

but today is friday...anything is posible in fx market..so...cheers TAH!

a pullback to 2680 area and i'll enter long without doubt!!!
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  • #13,239
  • Jul 9, 2010 1:49am Jul 9, 2010 1:49am
UJ Notice:

I don't normally put a watch on UJ, since I mostly trade EU. But pipoca got me started on a short trade on this yesterday. It is not his fault, but shortly after going short, PA reversed.

With adding as price moved higher, I still do not have as attractive an averaged entry short price as PA may be about to provide.

Look at gray EP area, and maybe keep watch for a SonicR short trade if PA breaks down into/thru that area.
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  • #13,240
  • Jul 9, 2010 2:06am Jul 9, 2010 2:06am
Quoting DanPa
i avoid eu short for the moment...at least for the moment, for me look like is long!!!

but today is friday...anything is posible in fx market..so...cheers TAH!

a pullback to 2680 area and i'll enter long without doubt!!!
Of course you could be correct. But on the other hand, look at the PA/MACD divergence picture.....no less now than 5, FIVE! humps on this camel's back! I have never seen the likes of this! Reminds me of....

.....Humpty Dumpty! .....What the hell kind of camels is Basber raising down there, anyway?

And that Daily Chart, sure looks like the Bears sent up a flag and are waving it at the bulls, screaming "Buy, buy, buy!"

WARNING: Speculation!
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