Sonic R. System

Hello, I spotted a short setup on UJ. I am not in yet. I wait to see what will happening just before unemployement news. Any comments welcome
Edit : I am in now

EU 1m : looks price were sended up to resistance, I suspect it is to reload shorts

Nice find, pipoca. Thank you for posting it.

It is nice the way the larger FR stuy 62% retrace matches with central pivot. But it is also nice the way the smaller SonicR pullback FR study 100% matches with the range low as well as the previous S&R....can't decide. Let's see how it goes.

EU Long Trade Update:

As pipoca pointed out, on lowest TFs highest activity is at highs. This I do not like.

I have closed 1/4 for 96 pips profit.
I have closed 1/4 for 106 pips profit.
I am leaving 1/4 running with SL at 1.2662 yielding 95 pips profit if it is hit.

UJ Short Trade Initiated:

Two entries averaged at 88.13 and might add if run 20+ higher. PA looks like good US news was already in price before release. So it likely won't much exceed current high. And even with good US news (as if it made any difference to the profs!) this is likely to retrace down anyway.

Edit: Added again when PA reached the SonicR FR 62% retrace level. Average now is 88.19 and I like the volume spike at the high of last M15 TF candle.

EU Long Trade Update:

Closed final 1/4 for 115 pips profit. High activity at highest price now showing up on M15 trade volume study convinced me to bail out. It could just be consolidating and go higher, but the trade has already been a nice one.

UJ short : was stoplossed and did not took the reverse. Bad trading today for me

There is nice DB on UJ H4.
I would not be so sure about the short trade.

What was here wrong?

Maybe bad for me, but I removed SL and added to short at last highs, for average short of 88.30.

I still view the pre-release run up as good news already being built in at time of release. If so, then the post-release drive is prof gaming......running it even higher while closing longs and going short. Hell, they may even consider the pre-release high as having "over done it."

My entry is not that much lower than the high put in. So, if this does any kind of a decent pullback, it should be ok. I see that EU is now proceeding up some more (after I closed trade...arrrg!), so the US news must not be viewed as good on that pair. And maybe UJ will respond accordingly by going down, once the profs finish their gaming.

My humble opinion : EJ & UJ were in a bull flag, easy to see & say after action. The lack of activity before entry should warn me. What I regret is to have totally ignored the reverse.

I think when a SonicR entry failed, think to reverse ur trade. A lot of time my first attempt is wrong , then SonicR show me another entry on the other side

me too...stop out!

Nothing was wrong. You, and those of us that shorted UJ, were shorting against the obvious upward slope of the Dragon and Trendline. Maybe this last move up is just a Head Fake, maybe not. But our trades were against the trend.

And that is what SLs and money management are for.

I am in Long trade on UJ. Unfortunately i entered on the top before the pullback (can be seen on M5, M15), so I was litlle stressed last few minutes.
I swear I will always wait for pullback before I enter the market.

Thank you guys for sharing your opinion

M5 shows trading is falling off now at the highs, so this area up here may be as high as it goes today. And it might start to drop. M30 shows PA has had a very strong drive in very little time. And to the extent that PA has exceeded the average range, too. Such is the makings for a good pullback.

EU Watch:

H1 shows PA seems to have topped off on high activity, well below the average range high. A drop could follow.

M15 shows more detail. It may not be unreasonable to watch for a possible SonicR short trade this afternoon if price continues to drop off from the highs.

The range so far today is only 82, and even though the average range is 141, that too has been dropping. It was over 200 just a couple of weeks ago. So the range today of 82 is a good deal less than half what the average range was not too long ago. When range constricts as price is moving up, traders are becoming more wary of the higher prices. And when price suddenly constricts a lot, either traders have lost interest, or consolidation for another move is happening. The asian and the late euro/early US sessions have stabbed the price high and poured on the trading. So, it very much looks like the profs are getting on board for the next train going south.

WARNING: Speculation!

Found this on THV thread!

EU Watch:

M15 PA now has candles down and out of Dragon. Chart has SonicR FR study for pullback. If one trusts that price will fall, then early entry might be gauged by the FR retrace levels.

Remember Domas4 words that the less it retraces the bigger the move is likely to be.

UJ - SL hit.
Not very successful today.

Thanks TAH for the explanation of the situation.